Democrat Hillary Scholten takes on Trump-backed John Gibbs, who ousted a pro-impeachment Republican, in Michigan's 3rd Congressional District election
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Democrat Hillary Scholten is facing off against Republican John Gibbs in Michigan's 3rd District.
Gibbs ousted incumbent Rep. Peter Meijer in a primary that hinged on Meijer's vote to impeach Trump.
Gibbs' win and redistricting have Democrats optimistic they can flip the seat.
Democrat Hillary Scholten takes on Republican John Gibbs in a race overshadowed by former President Donald Trump and the remnants of a contentious GOP primary in Michigan's 3rd Congressional District.
Michigan's 3rd Congressional District candidates
Scholten thought she was gunning for a rematch with incumbent Rep. Peter Meijer, a Republican whose last name is literally a brand in Michigan. But Meijer's decision to cast one of his first-ever votes to impeach President Donald Trump for inciting the January 6 Capitol riot has hung over the district ever since.
Trump pushed John Gibbs, a Trump administration Housing and Urban Development official, to a primary win over Meijer — one of the latest stops in a revenge tour of the nine other House Republicans who backed Trump's impeachment. Now, this seat anchored in Grand Rapids that Trump barely carried in 2020 has Republicans nervous.
Scholten, a former Department of Justice attorney, has portrayed herself as a consensus-seeking Democrat who would rein in her party's spending plans. Gibbs' standing has been further imperiled by CNN unearthing blog posts from his time as a Stanford student where he argued that women having a right to vote led to suffering.
The seat also became much more Democratic-leaning following redistricting. A state commission grappled with the loss of a seat by forcing the 3rd District to absorb much of an old seat, per FiveThirtyEight.
Voting history for Michigan's 3rd Congressional District
Trump saw his margin of victory crash under the old lines, carrying the seat by about 3 percentage points after winning handily by almost double-digits in 2016.
Meijer replaced long-time Rep. Justin Amash, a libertarian Republican, who often cruised to reelection. In his 2020 race against Scholten, Meijer won by 6 points. However, the new district lines make the seat Democratic-leaning.
The money race
According to OpenSecrets, Scholten has raised $2.9 million, spent $2 million, and has $959,333 on hand, as of September 30. Her opponent, Gibbs, has raised $1 million, spent $929,899, and has $119,627 remaining, as of September 30.
As of mid-October, super PACs, national party committees, and other non-candidate groups have combined to spend about $9 million to advocate for or against this race's candidates, including during the primaries.
What experts say
The race between Scholten and Gibbs is rated as "tilt Democratic" by Inside Elections, "lean Democratic" by The Cook Political Report, and "leans Democratic" by Sabato's Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics.
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