Democrat McKee leads GOP's Kalus. What you need to know about the poll numbers

PROVIDENCE – It's a horse race.

Republican Allan Fung is leading his Democratic opponent Seth Magaziner in the nationally watched race for Rhode Island's 2nd Congressional District seat, according to a WPRI-TV and Roger Williams University poll released Thursday.

But Fung's lead is so close it is within the margin of error just four and a half weeks out from Election Day.

Over in the governor's race, incumbent Dan McKee has a double-digit lead over his largely self-financed GOP challenger, Ashley Kalus, according to the first publicly released poll since Rhode Island's Sept. 13 primaries.

The numbers:

If the Nov. 8 election were held today, Fung would lead Magaziner, the state's term-limited treasurer, 46% to 40%, with Moderate Willian Gilbert capturing 4% of the potential vote and 9% undecided.

The survey of 254 2nd Congressional District voters was conducted by Fleming & Associates between Sept. 29 and Oct. 2.

In their bid to retake the U.S. House of Representatives, the national Republican Party has targeted Rhode Island's 2nd District since incumbent Rep. Jim Langevin announced in January he would not seek reelection. 

The poll shows the GOP, which has poured money into Rhode Island to help Fung, has a good shot to flip a congressional seat held by Democrats in a Democratic state.

The way pollster Joseph Fleming sees it: "We have it within the [6.2%] margin of error ... so this race can be even closer than it shows right now.

"But keep in mind, there is still a month to the general election. A lot can happen in a month. We saw that in the Democratic primary. In the last 10 days when there was a lot of movement," Fleming recalled Thursday.

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He notes the deep gender divide in this race.

Women favor Magaziner 47.2% to 40.7% while men favor Fung, 51.1% to 33.6% in a campaign year when the U.S. Supreme Court's reversal of Roe V. Wade and the threat by congressional Republicans of a national abortion ban is weighing on many voters' minds.

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Fleming was also struck by the number of Democrats leaning toward the well-known Fung, the former Cranston mayor who ran for governor twice and, in Fleming's words, "comes across as a nice guy."

While heavily favored by Republicans, Fung also has a 10-percentage point lead among independents – who make up Rhode Island's largest voting bloc – and a 24% chunk of the potential Democratic vote, which Fleming calls "high for a Republican."

Historically, "Democrats tend to come home towards the end, so that number might go down, but if Allan Fung can hold on to that 24% of the Democratic vote, that puts him in a nice position," Fleming said.

Though Magaziner lags, his spokeswoman Patricia Socarras said:the poll "shows a clear path for Magaziner to win this race by reminding voters how out of step Allan Fung is from their values.

"As Rhode Islanders learn that Allan Fung’s opposed the Affordable Care Act, opposed abortion protections in Rhode Island, and has committed to making Trump-loyalist Kevin McCarthy as Speaker of the House, voters will realize that we cannot afford to send Fung to Congress," she said.

“Allan isn’t focused on snapshot polls,” said Fung Campaign Spokesman Steven Paiva.  "Allan is focused on providing relief from the Biden-Pelosi Agenda fully supported by Seth Magaziner that is making powering and heating your homes more expensive this winter.”

McKee or Kalus: What the poll numbers show

In the governor's race, Democrat McKee – who ascended from lieutenant governor to the state's top office in March 2021 – was ahead with 45% of the potential vote, to 32% for Republican Kalus.

The three Independents on the ballot – Paul Rianna, Elijah Gizzarelli and Zachary Hurwitz – split another 7% between them, with the last 15% of the 402 likely Rhode Island voters who were surveyed on this race undecided.

With a larger sample, the margin of error is only 4.2%.

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Other takeaways from the two surveys

Despite $3.2 million in committed spending on her aggressive challenge to McKee – with most of it coming out of her own pocket – Kalus has not yet been able to push much past the 30% that has been the redoubt of recent GOP challengers.

(Fung captured 36% in his first match against Gina Raimondo in 2014, and 37% in their 2018 rematch.)

Kalus has been running ads introducing herself – and attacking McKee for "insider deals" – almost non-stop since spring. Her ads also blame McKee and President Biden for the inflation-driven rise in food and gas prices.

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By focusing on the cost of living, Kalus has hit on the Number #1 issue cited by 42% of the potential voters who were surveyed, with abortion trailing at (14%), education (11%), health care (10%), taxes (9%), and public safety (7%).

McKee leads, nonetheless, among voters in every age group. Women especially favor McKee over Kalus, 46.5% to 29.6%, which may help explain why McKee has been stressing his pro-choice stance on abortion against Kalus' "pro-life" position.

Men also favor McKee, but the spread is not as wide: 43.4% to 34.9%. Another 9% said: "same." Only among independents does Kalus lead McKee: 42% to 29%.

Voters' overall preference for McKee over Kalus does not, however, extend to their views of the state in general.

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Asked if the state was headed in the "right direction," only 34% said yes, 45% said no. Another 9% said: "same" 

And no surprise here: In a hypothetical 2024 matchup, Rhode Island voters would choose Biden over former President Trump, 49% to 32%.

Those surveyed were also asked about this real-life scenario in the political life of Dan McKee, who cast the tie-breaking vote: "Developers of a proposed soccer stadium in Pawtucket are seeking $60 million from the State and the City of Pawtucket to complete the project."

Asked if they were for or against the public funding for the stadium, the majority - 56 % - were opposed, only 31 % in favor  with others describing themselves as undecided.

The response to the poll from the McKee campaign: "While we don’t put much stock in polls, today’s numbers are a clear indicator that Rhode Islanders are recognizing that Governor McKee is the best person to lead, is in touch with Rhode Islanders’ values, and cares deeply about the future of our state."

Kalus campaign spokesman Matt Hanrahan: “It’s shocking to see a Democrat incumbent, in a Democrat state, way under 50%. Ashley is leading McKee by double-digits with Independents and has a lot of room to grow with Republicans."

This article originally appeared on The Providence Journal: Dan McKee leads Ashley Kalus in RI governor's race: WPRI poll shows