Democrat Shamaine Daniels commissioned a poll showing lead over Scott Perry in 10th District

With less than three months until the election, a poll commissioned by Democrat Shamaine Daniels showed her leading incumbent U.S. Rep. Scott Perry in Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District race 49-45 percent "after voters hear more information about the candidates."

From Aug. 9-10, Public Policy Polling surveyed 714 likely voters in Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District. The survey found that after voters heard more information about the candidates, nearly half said they would support Daniels over Perry, including 17% of Republican voters. The margin of error for the poll was listed as +/- 3.7%.

Public Policy Polling is based in North Carolina, and the survey on the 10th District race was paid for by the Daniels campaign. Jim Williams of Public Policy Polling said the methodology used was half interactive voice response telephone and half text message to cell-only voters.

According to the full poll, 30 percent of voters who participated in the survey are 18-45 years old, 44 percent are 46-55 and 27 percent are older than 65.

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As for name recognition, 63% said they were unsure whether or not they have a favorable opinion of Daniels or did not know her name, compared to just 11% for Perry.

Jon Price, lecturer in history and political science at Penn State York, said political scientists take all polls with grains of salt, whoever commissioned them.

"But more importantly, what we need to keep in mind is that a poll is a snapshot of time, " Price said. "The poll might indeed be accurate with Congressman Scott Perry's troubles in the news front and center."

U.S. Rep. Scott Perry has emerged as a focus of the Jan. 6 House select commission investigation. Revelations from the committee probe include communications Perry had with former Trump White House Chief of Staff Mark Meadows pushing conspiracy theories involving Italian satellites changing votes. Testimony also alleged Perry sought a pardon from the White House, though he has denied that assertion. Perry has declined to testify before the committee. On Aug. 8, Perry said his cellphone was seized by FBI agents with a search warrant.

From an election perspective, Price said, "we got to get into mid September before we really know where we are headed."

Perry's campaign spokesman, Matthew E. Beynon, said the congressman is focused on the unaffordable cost of living his constituents are suffering, "not internal polling paid for by his opponent."

But Price said from his perspective, this was a fairly tame poll.

In 2021, FiveThirtyEight, a website that uses statistical analysis and hard numbers to project election winners, rated Public Policy Polling with an A-. The number of polls analyzed were 454 and the percentage of races called correctly were 79%.

RealClear Politics has rated the 10th District race in Pennsylvania as "likely Republican."

Daniels said she is encouraged by the poll numbers.

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"My team and I are encouraged by the results of our recent poll. While many will find this result surprising, they shouldn’t. Whether Scott Perry betrayed our country is up to authorities to decide, but he has betrayed his constituents and they know it," she said.

Daniels is an attorney and has served on the Harrisburg City Council since 2013. Among her top issues are women's health, infrastructure and agriculture.

Kaity Assaf is a regional news reporter for the USA Today Network. Contact her at kassaf1@ydr.com, on Twitter @kaitythekite or by phone, 717-472-0960. Please support local journalism with a digital subscription.

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This article originally appeared on York Daily Record: Democrat Shamaine Daniels' poll shows lead over Rep. Scott Perry