Democrat Tom Suozzi wins New York special election for George Santos’ seat

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Democrat Tom Suozzi won his comeback bid for Congress on Tuesday, beating GOP nominee Mazi Pilip, the Associated Press projected.

“We won this race because we addressed the issues and we found a way to bind our divisions,” he said in a victory speech to supporters.

Democrats went all-in on the special election, spending more than $10 million in the hopes of flipping Rep. George Santos’s vacant seat and further narrowing Republicans’ slim House majority. The race was widely considered a toss-up heading into Tuesday, as Republicans spent over $6 million on Pilip’s behalf and looked to capitalize on a backlash against Democrats on Long Island that helped power the party to gains in the midterms.

Suozzi touted himself as an experienced legislator who is tough on crime, wants to lower taxes, and cares about fighting corruption. He left the 3rd congressional district in 2022 to challenge New York Gov. Kathy Hochul as a “common sense Democrat” in a primary for governor of the state.

The Biden campaign took special interest in Suozzi’s prominent use of the Senate’s failed bipartisan border deal, which the president backed, to attack his opponent.

“Trump and the MAGA extremists in the House are already paying the political price for derailing a bipartisan deal to secure our borders and fix our broken immigration system,” Biden campaign manager Julie Chavez Rodriguez said in a statement.

Pilip, an Ethiopian child refugee who lived in Israel before emigrating to the U.S., slammed Suozzi as soft on immigration, running ad after ad with his face next to footage of migrants crossing the border and scuffling with cops.

Rep. Richard Hudson, chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, called Pilip “a fighter with a bright future within the Republican Party” in a statement, and said she waged an ”uphill battle” given that Biden won the district by 8 points in 2020.

Donald Trump, on the other hand, denounced Pilip — who was pressed during the race on whether she’d supported him in past elections — as a “very foolish woman” who should have embraced his MAGA movement.

SIGNALS

Race could serve as litmus test for November

The special election, centered on hot-button issues like immigration and abortion, quickly became a must-watch race as a possible bellwether for the November presidential election.

2024 campaigners have watched the district eagerly to see how different messaging played with voters. “Operatives all over the country are looking to see what strategies, what tactics, particularly what messages are working and what isn’t working,” Lawrence Levy, dean of the National Center for Suburban Studies at Hofstra University, told CBS News. Levy said the outcome of this race is really about “positioning and understanding what [campaigners] need to do come November, when there will be 30 or 40 seats up for grabs that will definitely determine who controls Congress.”

Democrats secured their feel-good win

Winning this race could bring significant upsides for Democrats, Semafor’s David Weigel and Kadia Goba wrote earlier this week. “It would shrink the House GOP’s already-tight majority, reassure strategists their political messaging on border issues and abortion is on track, and confirm that their voters remain motivated despite Biden’s personal struggles.” As CNN’s Harry Enten put it, “even a narrow Suozzi victory would be impressive for Democrats given how well Republicans have done in other elections in the area.”

But while the win is a “morale booster” for the party, Rep. Grace Meng, D-N.Y., who has campaigned extensively for Suozzi and lent staff to his turnout operation, told Semafor she doesn’t think it’s necessary “in terms of the math that goes towards winning back the House.”

Suozzi wants to moderate Dems’ immigration stances

Pilip tried to paint Suozzi as a Biden lackey who was soft on the border, while Suozzi portrayed himself as a border hawk who stood up to progressives in his party when it was tough.

He fought to differentiate himself from the party’s left, telling Semafor that if the bipartisan Senate border bill was resurrected, 80% of asylum-seeking migrants would be removed immediately. His campaign has highlighted his support for measures like border fencing as proof that if elected, he would prioritize the migrant crisis.