Democratic group unveils list of target swing districts ahead of 2024
A Democratic group focusing on swing races is rolling out its plan to win back the House majority next year, which would require a net gain of at least five seats.
Swing Left, a group that organizes volunteers and donors to support Democrats in some of the most closely watched races, announced its Win Back the House strategy on Tuesday. Executive Director Yasmin Radjy previewed the initial target district list in an interview with The Hill last week.
The list focuses on states that don’t typically see major investments in presidential election cycles, Radjy said.
“These are the places where if we don’t do those early investments … we think that we will be in trouble as a party and as a movement.”
“[T]he motivating number for our volunteers and our donors is that the Republicans won the House by 6,675 votes,” Radjy said, referring to the margin of votes for the five closest GOP-won midterm House races.
Republicans needed to gain five seats to flip the House last year. They gained nine.
Radjy said Swing Left planned to announce its House strategy over the summer but moved its timeline up to April: “[I]f we raise dollars for candidates to hire their field directors six months earlier, if we get our volunteers knocking on doors a year earlier than we have before, then we think that a lot more is possible.”
All six of the GOP-held target districts on the group’s list are in blue states California, New York and Oregon.
Radjy said California and New York have been “centerpieces of our House investment strategy since our founding,” adding that people in blue areas like Los Angeles and New York City “haven’t historically known where to invest their time and dollars to have a maximal impact to shift the balance of power back towards Democrats.”
“[W]e say, you know, most Americans are within a 90-minute drive of a competitive swing district. And that is absolutely the case in New York and California,” Radjy said.
Radjy said the group saw a boost in volunteer sign-ups the week of the Dobbs v. Jackson Supreme Court decision that overturned Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey, adding that “the fight for reproductive freedom” is continuing to motivate voters this cycle.
According to a press release the group sent to The Hill, Swing Left “stays out of competitive primaries, and instead pools funds in advance for the eventual Democratic nominees[.]”
The group plans to expand its list of target districts as the cycle progresses. The initial list is below.
Democratic-held “hold” targets:
IL-17 (Rep. Eric Sorensen)
NC-01 (Rep. Don Davis)
NM-02 (Rep. Gabe Vasquez)
NY-18 (Rep. Pat Ryan)
OH-01 (Rep. Greg Landsman)
OH-13 (Rep. Emilia Sykes)
Republican-held “flip” targets:
OR-05 (Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer)
CA-13 (Rep. John Duarte)
CA-27 (Rep. Mike Garcia)
NY-03 (Rep. George Santos)
NY-04 (Rep. Anthony D’Esposito)
NY-17 (Rep. Mike Lawler)
Two of the “flip” target districts were among the five closest Republican-won districts in 2022, according to Inside Elections: California’s 13th and New York’s 17th.
Each of the six “flip” targets is also on the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee’s (DCCC) list of 31 GOP-held targets released earlier this month. And the six “hold” districts overlap with the DCCC’s list of 29 “Frontline” districts.
House Democratic Whip Katherine Clark (D-Mass.) said in Swing Left’s press release that she’s confident “their strategic involvement will play a key role in delivering a Democratic House majority that will fight to protect voting rights, abortion access, and democracy itself from the real and present threat of MAGA extremism.”
Swing Left says it has more than a million members and has raised $80 million for Democratic candidates, civic organizations and voter mobilization efforts since its founding in 2017.
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