What do Democratic losses in Carmel and Fishers mean for 2024 elections?

The signs were there in Hamilton County.

There was the pattern of Democrats' successes in Carmel, the controversies stemming from conservative-leaning library and school boards in Fishers and the high number of blue candidates for offices across the county's four largest cities.

For several years now, Indiana Democrats have looked to Hamilton County as the spot to make gains in the GOP supermajority at the statehouse, especially as the population of Indianapolis' northern neighbor has been growing in numbers and diversity.

But on Election Day earlier this month, Democrats won just two local races across all of Hamilton County. Republicans claimed the Carmel mayor’s race, nearly swept the Carmel City Council races and added another seat on the Fishers City Council.

Looking for the silver lining, Democratic Party leaders say close margins in some 2023 races point to an existing infrastructure to build future success in Hamilton County. But the municipal results likely are a more immediate boost for Republicans, who say they are confident in their hold on the suburb in 2024, especially in statehouse races there featuring open seats.

“Hamilton County still is a pretty strong Republican stronghold, despite the Democrat narrative to the contrary,” said outgoing state Rep. Jerry Torr, R-Carmel, who will see candidates battle for his longtime House District 39 seat.

If not Hamilton County, where?

Despite Democrats' disappointment in Hamilton County, the party did see wins in other municipal races around the state. For example, they flipped mayoral seats in Lawrence, Evansville and Michigan City.

So should Indiana Democrats prioritize other communities over Hamilton County to make gains in 2024 statehouse races?

“Maybe they divert resources or they refocus their attention elsewhere, but I don’t know where else you look to,” said Laura Wilson, an associate political science professor at the University of Indianapolis. “Aside from a few liberal hotspots in terms of urban areas, you’re talking about a pretty rural state.”

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Hamilton County Republicans say the municipal results are a sign that Democrats' efforts there did not work this year and will not in the future.

“This narrative that they’ve been trying to push to try and raise money, to recruit candidates, I don’t know in any way possible they can think that Hamilton County is turning blue, let alone purple,” said Mario Massillamany, chairman of the county Republican Party.

But Indiana Democratic Party Chairman Mike Schmuhl said this year's races are just the "first bite of the apple" for Democrats.

"What we've been able to do there over the last few years is put in place infrastructure to help our party be more successful in the future," he said. "That's volunteerism, that's donors, that's activities and events with our party out there."

Wilson said it’s reasonable for Republicans to see 2023 as a reaffirmation of their historic success in Hamilton County, but Democrats shouldn't give up there.

“The Democrats probably don't leave this election cycle with a lot of hope for the area, but I think they still have more opportunity long term to have gains in Hamilton County, relative to other places beyond Indianapolis in the region,” Wilson said.

That seems to be the perspective Indiana Democrats are taking.

“Hamilton County still is a major focus for us,” Schmuhl said. “If you would have said 10 years ago, 12 years ago, that a mayoral candidate and city council candidates would get in the 40s or mid-40s in Carmel … I think a lot of people who live in Carmel or live in Hamilton County would have been shocked and surprised.”

Candidates and messaging

Both Democrats and Republicans agree that local or statewide election success in Hamilton County comes down to the candidate running, what their message is and if it resonates with voters.

Additionally, statehouse races during a presidential election year will bring about different levels of turnout and debate on different issues than voters saw in municipal races, Wilson said.

"It might not be the party, quite frankly — it could be as much a response to the candidates themselves or maybe the particular issues that are playing really well with voters," she said.

With both open and previously competitive statehouse seats on 2024 ballots across Hamilton County, there will be opportunities for both parties to see what works.

Democratic Rep. Victoria Garcia Wilburn of Fishers is running for reelection in House District 32, which overlaps portions of Fishers, Carmel and Indianapolis. She defeated Republican opponent Fred Glynn last year 50.5% to 49.5%.

Sen. Fady Qaddoura, D-Indianapolis, is running for reelection in Senate District 30, which stretches from northern Indianapolis into Hamilton County. In 2020, Qaddoura defeated former state Sen. John Ruckleshaus with 52.5% of the vote.

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On the Republican side, Rep. Donna Schaibley, R-Carmel, announced earlier this year she is not running for reelection leaving an open seat in House District 24. Rep. Chuck Goodrich, R-Noblesville, in House District 29 is running for Congress, leaving an open seat there as well.

And then there’s Torr’s seat.

A look at HD 39

As of November, Democrat Matt McNally and Republican Danny Lopez have filed to run for the House District 39 seat covering Carmel and southern Westfield that Torr has held for nearly three decades.

Both names might be familiar to Hamilton County voters. McNally ran against Torr in 2022, when the incumbent Republican defeated won 52.4% of the vote to McNally’s 47.6%. Lopez, a Carmel resident, is the vice president for external affairs and communications for Pacers Sports & Entertainment and previously served in roles under former U.S. Sen. Dan Coats, Gov. Eric Holcomb and former Govs. Mike Pence and Mitch Daniels.

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McNally, a Westfield resident with just over two decades of military service under his belt, announced earlier this year that he planned to run for the House again. He said he is not disheartened by Democrats' municipal results this year.

“The issues at city hall in Carmel are extremely different than at the state level,” McNally said. “I think our voters are smart and they understand that and they don't want some of the stuff that they've seen with the state legislature. They want the state to focus on the things that matter: good schools, good job opportunities and job opportunities for their kids.”

Lopez said he was motivated to run after being involved for years in supporting conservative policies that he says have transformed Indiana, such as education reform and his work with Strada Education Network.

“We've got this record that we're going to continue to run and I don't think voters are going to be distracted,” Lopez said. “I think you saw Democrats in Hamilton County tried to distract voters. I think it backfired because people there looked at the record and said, ‘This just does not resonate with us.’ That's going to be the same in 2024.”

The 2024 primary election is May 7, and the general election is Nov. 5.

IndyStar reporter Kayla Dwyer contributed to this story.

Contact IndyStar's state government and politics reporter Brittany Carloni at brittany.carloni@indystar.com or 317-779-4468. Follow her on Twitter/X @CarloniBrittany.

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: 2024 election: Democrats not giving up on Hamilton County despite losses