How Democrats could hold onto their majority in the House of Representatives

For much of the past year, many political observers assumed that Democrats would likely lose their majority in the House of Representatives, if not the Senate, largely because of President Joe Biden’s lagging approval ratings and high inflation numbers.

But John Della Volpe, the director of polling for Harvard’s Kennedy School Institute of Politics, said he always questioned that wisdom.

“If you look at the generic ballot, between then and today, it has not deviated more than four points,” he told The Independent. “I don’t think Republicans had a lead ever more than four points. Today, it’s essentially even.”

Nowadays, of course, Democrats are in a much better position. Last week, they held onto New York’s 19th District – which voted for Barack Obama in 2012, Donald Trump in 2016 and Joe Biden in 2020 – in a special election. Similarly, Democrats have overperformed even in special elections that they have lost. And in Alaska, Mary Peltola, the Democratic candidate for the at-large district race, has a slight lead over former governor Sarah Palin.

Meanwhile, the generic congressional ballot – which measures whether voters would support a generic Republican or generic Democrat for Congress – shows that Democrats have a slight lead. A CBS News/YouGov poll projected Republicans might only pick up 12 seats.

Mr Volpe said that a few factors contributed to this somewhat rosy picture for Democrats.

One is that Mr Biden and Democrats were not additionally punished for rising inflation and gas prices, given that the president’s approval rating had already dropped after much of the public disliked the United States’ exit from Afghanistan. Aside from that, Mr Volpe said that he began to “literally feel” the national mood changing after Politico leaked a draft of Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito’s Dobbs v Jackson opinion, which overturned abortion protections long enshrined under Roe v Wade.

That same week, he happened to be in Texas, Georgia and Ohio, and young people shared their concerns about the reversal of Roe. Furthermore, as Republican primaries gained speed, former president Donald Trump re-emerged.

“I think that also, frankly, stalled any potential Republican momentum, because Democrats were now able to be reminded of the choice they made in 2020,” he said. “And that was improving while Biden’s approval ratings weren’t.”

The Supreme Court formally issuing the abortion opinion only supercharged public sentiment.

“The anger was already mounting, or the sadness, the combination of all those emotions,” he said. “It took Americans quite a while to process all of that.”

But the other big shifts that happened were that Mr Biden was able to pass his signature Inflation Reduction Act, which Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer and Senator Joe Manchin negotiated.

“Not only was he able to deliver on core elements of his campaign agenda,” Mr Volpe said, “but also, I think he took people by surprise.”

The last part, Mr Volpe cited, was the president’s announcement on student debt forgiveness of $10,000 for people who earn up to $125,000, with potentially up to $20,000 for Pell Grant recipients.

In recent weeks, Mr Biden’s approval has also seen a slight uptick. A Gallup poll showed that his approval is now at 44 per cent, the highest it has been in a year, though 53 per cent of voters still disapprove of the job he is doing as president.

This doesn’t mean that Democrats are largely in the clear, though.

“It’s unlikely that Democrats can win control, but there’s a clear path there,” he said. “The odds are still against Democrats based upon the districts, et cetera. But there’s clearly a path there and it’s still very early.”

Mr Volpe said the degree to which Democrats had been investing in identifying and organising young voters could make a difference between a Democratic House and Republican House.

The picture is not so clear for Republicans.

“The reason I’m having a hard time figuring that, is that a lot of Republicans have made it pretty clear their views on abortion, and that is given the opportunity, they would outlaw it,” he said. Mr Volpe noted that in New York’s 19th District, Republican candidate Marc Molinaro was a moderate candidate.

“They would need to disassociate themselves with Trump,” he said, as well as Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell’s interest in legislation on restricting abortion.