Democrats dominate Marion County. Can Carrasco pull off an upset against Prosecutor Mears?

The contest for Marion County prosecutor is largely seen as one of the more controversial races local voters will decide Nov. 8. But with Democrats dominating the local voter pool, does Republican Cyndi Carrasco have a chance at upsetting the status quo?

And what does being a “prosecutor” even mean? Why should people care who’s at the helm of that office in Marion County?

It's a race so contentious that even the family of incumbent Ryan Mears' predecessor, Terry Curry, seems to diverge. The late Curry's widow Anne Curry donated $250 to Mears' campaign, while Curry's daughter Melissa Coxey gave $1,000 to Carrasco's campaign.

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A local criminologist, former U.S. attorney and two political scientists spoke with IndyStar about what's at stake, and what the odds are for an upset by Carrasco.

Why it’s getting so much attention: Eric Grommon, an applied criminologist and associate professor at IUPUI, said most prosecutor races across the country come and go without a big battle.

That doesn’t seem to be the case here.

“This race is contested and feels competitive,” Grommon said.

Grommon pointed out that midterm elections typically draw a low turnout. Only 11% of Marion County's registered voters showed up for the primaries this year. To contrast, the primaries during the 2020 election saw 22% of registered voters turn out.

It’s still a low number, but double this year’s tally. About two-thirds of those who showed up in either were Democrats.

Local and national debates about how to prosecute crime, however, are bringing more eyes to the race, Grommon said. Those debates largely rippled out of the country-wide jump in homicides from 2019 to 2020.

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"There is (a) good deal of attention on this race from local media outlets, the FOP, surrounding counties, and even the state legislature, particularly if we consider ‘noncompliant prosecutor’ bills proposed across the last few Sessions,” he said.

Why the race matters: Grommon said prosecutors play a pivotal role in shaping the county's response to crime.

Prosecutors, he said, are “one of the most powerful actors in the justice system.”

Police may locate and arrest people accused of crimes, but it’s up to prosecutors to file charges in court against them. They guide plea negotiations that set parameters around criminal sentences. They make recommendations on how to apply bail.

“Prosecutors balance a number of competing roles," Grommon said. "They need to hold defendants accountable and resolve cases with convictions. At the same time, prosecutors need to protect defendants' rights, represent victims, advance community interests, maintain relationships with law enforcement, and ensure fair and proportional outcomes.”

Prosecutors can also influence police by setting enforcement priorities, like Mears did when he said his office wouldn't prosecute simple possession of marijuana crimes. And they police the police by weighing criminal charges against officers accused of wrongdoing.

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“What's at stake are philosophical views on how to deliver justice in Marion County,” Grommon said.

Former U.S. attorney Deborah Daniels said those views set the tone for crime and punishment in the city.

“The issue really is people's perception of how safe they are,” she said, “and the prosecutor plays a really important role in that.”

Beyond crime data and statistics — like the fact that homicides peaked last year but appear to be on the decline this year — the mere perception of safety could play a role in how people decide to invest, or not, in the city.

"Indianapolis, and its immediate environs (…) is the driver of the economic success of the state,” she said. “So it's critically important, obviously, that a community do everything it can to control crime.”

Will this be an easy win for Mears?: Political pundits were split on this one.

Gregory Shufeldt, an associate professor of political science at the University of Indianapolis, said Marion County’s political make-up leans in Mears’ favor.

“I wouldn't expect this to be a competitive race,” he said.

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“Marion County is increasingly becoming more and more Democratic — we're seeing that in the city council makeup,” Shufeldt added.

The historically-low voter turnout for midterms in Indiana also will play a role, he said.

“If there aren't statewide races that are driving turnout, there aren't congressional districts that are (driving) turnout,” he said. “There aren't that many other races that are going to be driving voters to the polls.”

If "very few people" are paying attention this election season, Shufeldt said, that "bodes that the status quo is going to hold.”

But his colleague Laura Merrifield Wilson, also a political science professor at the University of Indianapolis, disagreed.

“I think this is a competitive race," she said. If people are concerned enough about crime, "there could be a push in terms of turnout.”

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“There’s nothing higher on the ballot that's really going to appeal to conservatives in a way that's going to benefit Cyndi, but I do think if you consider the kind of conversations you've seen in Indianapolis, some of the concerns, and regardless of the actual crime statistics (...) certainly the perception of crime, there's been a lot of pressure on Ryan Mears and questions about how he handles that role.”

What could disrupt that possible inertia for Carrasco, though, is the abortion issue. Democrats might be more angry about the overturning of Roe v. Wade, and Indiana's near-total abortion ban, than local Republicans are about Mears and public safety.

Mears appears to be betting on that. One of the messages he's stressed repeatedly during this election cycle is his decision, announced in June, not to prosecute doctors who provide abortions.

"With that in mind, the turnout push is going to favor, I mean right now, it looks like Democrats," Merrifield Wilson said.

Call IndyStar courts reporter Johnny Magdaleno at 317-273-3188 or email him at jmagdaleno@indystar.com. Follow him on Twitter @IndyStarJohnny

This article originally appeared on Indianapolis Star: Can Cyndi Carrasco pull off upset against Ryan Mears? Experts weigh in