Democrats face a crucial test in the South Carolina primary: Can they energize the African-American vote?

CHARLESTON, S.C. – From churches in Charleston to classrooms in Clemson, Democratic candidates have crisscrossed South Carolina to try to win over African-American voters, a critical voting bloc that is decisive in this state and essential to the party nationally.

African-American voters comprise up to 60% of South Carolina's Democratic electorate, making the state's primary Saturday a crucial test of candidates' ability to energize African Americans in future contests and the general election on Nov. 3.

In the short term, African American turnout in the Palmetto state will decide the primary showdown between the two leading contenders: former Vice President Joe Biden and Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., whose strength in earlier contests has made him the frontrunner for the Democratic presidential nomination.

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Democrats also see South Carolina as a way to gauge African American enthusiasm nationally, four years after a drop in black turnout helped cost them the White House race against President Donald Trump.

After Democrats settle on their party's nominee, they will need to focus heavily on reviving African American participation in swing states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

Former Vice President Joe Biden, a 2020 Democratic presidential candidate, held a community event at Winyah Indigo Society Hall in Georgetown Wednesday, February 26, 2020.
Former Vice President Joe Biden, a 2020 Democratic presidential candidate, held a community event at Winyah Indigo Society Hall in Georgetown Wednesday, February 26, 2020.

The drop in African American turnout led, in part, to Hillary Clinton's loss to Trump in 2016 – an outcome that might have been different had Clinton generated more excitement among minority voters in cities like Philadelphia, Pittsburgh and Detroit.

"All of us have learned that lesson" about getting out the vote, said Rep. Steven Horsford, a Nevada congressman who traveled to South Carolina to stump for Biden. Democratic political strategist Jamal Simmons described South Carolina as "the first crucible for getting black votes."

While South Carolina's African American voters are overwhelmingly Democratic, white voters in that state lean conservative. Trump beat Clinton by a double-digit margin in the state four years ago and it is not expected to be in play for Democrats in the general election.

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Bruce Ransom, co-director of the Palmetto Poll, noted that Trump carried Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin by very narrow margins in 2016 – a total of just less than 80,000 votes – and more African American votes could have won all of the states for Hillary Clinton.

Those three states could make the difference again in 2020.

"The black population is there, but you've got to have a strong ground game," said Ransom, a political science professor at Clemson University.

Bernie Sanders speaks during a rally in Columbia, S.C., in advance of the state's primary, Friday, Feb. 28, 2020.
Bernie Sanders speaks during a rally in Columbia, S.C., in advance of the state's primary, Friday, Feb. 28, 2020.

Jaime Harrison, the former South Carolina Democratic Party chairman who is running for the U.S. Senate, said the calculus for all Democratic candidates is simple.

"You can't be the nominee for the Democratic Party and you can't go to the White House without the African American vote," Harrison said. "It is essential."

Large parts of it went essentially missing throughout the country four years ago, according to various studies.

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From a record turnout rate of 66.6% in 2012 – Barack Obama's re-election year – African American participation nationally fell seven percentage points in 2016, down to 59.6%, according to a post-election study by the Pew Research Center.

The total number of black voters also declined nationally, falling by some 765,000 to 16.4 million in 2016, Pew reported. African Americans' percentage of the overall national vote went down from 13% to 12% in the two recent presidential elections, according to exit polls.

Clinton carried the African-American vote easily over Trump – 89% to 8%, according to exit polls – but the reduced turnout undercut her in states like Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin.

"You could argue that if black turnout in 2016 had matched black turnout in 2012 in Michigan and Wisconsin, that would have been enough to put Clinton over the line," said Ruy Teixeira, a senior fellow with the left-leaning Center For American Progress who has studied voting patterns.

There are many factors at play in a national election.

Lower black turnout was not that much of a factor in Pennsylvania, Teixeira added. He attributed Clinton's loss there to a surge of Republican votes from another demographic: non-college educated whites.

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The South Carolina Democratic primary will be the largest display of the black vote in 2020 to date. Iowa and New Hampshire have small minority populations. Entrance polls said the Nevada caucuses had 11% black voters.

Attracting a big slice of that vote is a major reason that Biden pursued the endorsement of Rep. James Clyburn, D-S.C., a legendary South Carolina kingmaker and the highest-ranking African-American in Congress.

A Clemson University Palmetto Poll on Wednesday gave Biden a big lead in the state over Sanders and billionaire Tom Steyer, with heavy support from African Americans.

Democrats will also be looking at building black turnout in future primaries, including Michigan (March 10), Wisconsin (April 7) and Pennsylvania (April 28).

After a Sanders rally at a convention center in North Charleston, Brandon Greene said African Americans simply "weren't energized" in 2016. Greene, 28, a local pastor and community activist, said people are excited in 2020 about the prospects of the African-American vote.

"It's really going to decide who wins and who doesn't," he said.

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Democratic presidential candidate former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, right, waves to the crowd next to Waterloo, Iowa, Mayor Quentin Hart during a campaign event Saturday, Feb. 1, 2020, in Dubuque, Iowa. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)
Democratic presidential candidate former South Bend, Ind., Mayor Pete Buttigieg, right, waves to the crowd next to Waterloo, Iowa, Mayor Quentin Hart during a campaign event Saturday, Feb. 1, 2020, in Dubuque, Iowa. (AP Photo/Marcio Jose Sanchez)

One reason for the excitement: Trump – though the Republican incumbent is making his own bid for African-American votes.

Citing low unemployment numbers and his plans for criminal justice reform, Trump often asks his African-American audience, "What have you got to lose?" At a rally in North Charleston on Friday, Trump said he claimed he'd win a "historic share" of the black vote in 2020.

African-American voters in South Carolina predicted voters of color in other states will share their enthusiasm.

"He doesn't represent us," said Jessica Bright, 34, the South Carolina state director for the Sanders campaign.

Bright said people "weren't motivated" four years ago, but now there is "a spark."

Others aren't so sure.

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At a combination prayer breakfast and candidate forum at Mt. Moriah Missionary Baptist Church, some African-American voters said they are more hopeful than optimistic.

Nancy Calvary, 57, a retirement center worker and a public service district commissioner, said she is concerned that "we're still not being heard" by candidates, party leaders, and government officials.

On the other hand, she noted, African Americans need to be concerned about their own turnout. Too many people, she said, have a "negative mind-set" toward voting and government, and "think it doesn't matter."

"It's important for everybody," she added, "not just African-Americans."

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: South Carolina primary: African-American voters are key to victory