Democrats may use population estimates for redistricting, raising questions about fairness of maps
Illinois Democrats face mounting questions about what data they will use as an alternative to the federal census — and if that choice would shortchange the racial and ethnic communities that are a core of the party — as they attempt to meet a June 30 deadline to draw new political boundaries.
Groups representing Blacks, Latinos, Asian Americans and other communities have urged Democrats to use actual federal census numbers rather than estimates or other data in preparing new boundary lines for the 118 members of the House, 59 members of the Senate and the districts for the state’s congressional delegation.
But due to delays caused by the pandemic, hard census data won’t be available until mid-August at the earliest. And if Democrats were to delay the state legislative mapmaking process past a constitutionally set date of June 30, they risk giving minority Republicans a 50-50 chance of winning the right to draw new boundaries for the General Assembly that will stand for the next decade.
Democrats have said they intend to finish the legislative mapmaking process by June 30, ensuring they will be relying on alternative data to the actual federal 2020 census.
“That’s our constitutional responsibility and that’s our goal to be done by June 30,” said state Sen. Elgie Sims, the Chicago Democrat who is vice chair of the senate redistricting committee.
The use of less specific data and population estimates to draw boundaries would likely face a legal challenge and also could run counter to promises from Emanuel “Chris” Welch, the state’s first Black House speaker, and Senate President Don Harmon to create maps that ensure equitable representation for underserved communities.
“They’re in this sort of dilemma situation right now,” Christopher Mooney, political scientist at the University of Illinois at Chicago, said of Illinois Democrats. “It’s going to be a mess, and the courts are going to have to sort it out. I don’t see any simple resolution to any of this.”
Although Democrats have held several legislative hearings on the redistricting process, they have yet to say what source of population data they will use to fashion the maps as an alternative to the delayed census figures.
Illinois’ Constitution does not require the use of federal census data for legislative redistricting, and some leading Democrats question the accuracy of the final census data by pointing to efforts by former President Donald Trump’s administration to block the counting of undocumented immigrants.
“There’s nothing that says that this (census) data is going to be accurate anyway because there were significant steps made to impact and influence some of that data,” Sims said.
The American Community Survey, a product of the federal Census Bureau known as the ACS, is the likely alternative to the actual results from the 2020 federal census. Other states also are looking at the ACS as an alternative.
The ACS is an ongoing survey in which about 3.5 million households are asked for information. In contrast to the actual census, which is supposed to count all U.S. households, the survey produces estimates to forecast trend. The latest survey is from 2019.
A number of groups advocating accuracy in counting the population, including racial and ethnic communities, found instances of wide variances when comparing the ACS estimates with actual 2010 census counts.
The ACS estimates do not go down to the block level reached by the federal census. That has various civil rights groups warning that using the survey to draw map lines may run counter to federal voting rights laws aimed at ensuring boundaries allow for representation from ethnic and racial communities.
The groups also note the state spent more than $31 million on efforts to ensure an accurate 2020 census count during a deadly pandemic, particularly to ensure adding traditionally undercounted populations to the final count.
“Those are the people I feel have been dishonored by the path that the Illinois General Assembly has now chosen,” said Jay Young, executive director of Common Cause Illinois. “It should be the job of our elected officials to sort of recognize that this challenge exists, to recognize that they’re not going to be able to draw the district lines with any degree of specificity, they’re not going to be able to draw equal districts.”
Sims contended the multiple regional hearings held by House and Senate redistricting panels are aimed at ensuring that all interests will be represented in the final maps.
“We want to make sure that we’re hearing from diverse communities. We want to pass a map that reflects out broad racial and geographic diversity. That’s why we’re having the subcommittees everywhere, all throughout the state, and they’ve been in all corners of the state because we want to hear from the communities directly,” he said.
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But Madeleine Doubek, executive director of CHANGE Illinois, a group that has long advocated for an independent mapmaking process to replace the current system, said the lack of an agreed source of data prevents those communities from suggesting their own map lines.
“You’re playing partisan power versus people power, and at the moment the people are the ones losing out because nobody will tell us what data they are using,” Doubek said.
“They’re holding all these hearings and patting themselves on the back for holding more hearings than ever before, but not very many people are aware of them to participate in, and they don’t know how to participate because they don’t know what data is going to be used,” she said.
The complaints have been echoed by Republicans in warning of heavily partisan-drawn districts coming from Democrats aimed at further diminishing their numbers in Springfield and in Washington.
“The ACS data is flawed. It does not give a true representation and actually undercounts,” said Rep. Tim Butler of Springfield, the ranking Republican on the House Redistricting Committee. “We’ve had people testify on the record that ACS data undercounts minority populations and rural communities, communities under 65,000.”
Because of Democratic control of Springfield, Republicans have virtually no say in the mapmaking process, and they also have advocated an appointed commission process in an effort to remove much of the politics out of what has always been an intensely partisan process.
The state constitution gives the legislature until June 30 to approve a new map for the General Assembly. If it fails to meet the deadline, an eight-member bipartisan commission is formed to come up with a map by Aug. 10.
But that commission has largely served as a placeholder in the past, awaiting a September drawing of a tiebreaking ninth partisan member to the commission, creating a political winner-takes-all sweepstakes.
Since Democrats control the legislature and the governor’s office, they have the ability to meet the June 30 deadline.
In their arguments against using estimated data, the GOP also has taken up the cause of the state’s Latino population, urging the creation of a second congressional district for the community as well as more seats in the General Assembly. The Latino population represents about 17.5% of the state’s population, with Blacks making up about 14.6% of Illinois residents.
Further complicating the redistricting issue is the time frame for the March 15, 2022, primary elections that would be conducted under new map lines. By law, candidates can begin circulating nominating petitions to appear on next year’s primary ballot by Aug. 31 with filing set to begin Nov. 22.
The primary calendar leaves little time for a process some states are also considering, the drafting of maps based on ACS data and then tweaking the lines after the more detailed federal census numbers are revealed. The calendar also leaves little time for a protracted lawsuit challenging the accuracy of the maps.
A lawsuit based on the use of ACS data would be almost inevitable, advocates of using census data say. But it would be hard to make the argument without also having the actual census data in hand. Given the Illinois election calendar, it’s possible courts could rule that despite problems in the maps, it’s too close to the election to make any substantial changes.
Kathay Feng, the national redistricting director for Common Cause, said to rely on survey data to draw maps “is a guaranteed malapportionment lawsuit.”
“I think the biggest challenge with that is not that we won’t win. It’s the timing. To get the lawsuit across, you’ve got to wait for potentially the new (census) data to come out ... sometime between August and September,” Feng said.
“If the court feels like it’s too close to the election, as we saw with many COVID cases, that it may, even if it finds the lines have been drawn in a way that was in malapportionment of population, they can’t unwind it until after the election. And so that would be a fear,” she said.
So when will Democrats announce what data they are using to populate their maps?
“That’s still under discussion. We’re working through it, trying to figure out what data we’re going to use,” Sims said. “And that’s why we keep focusing on the community outreach (through redistricting hearings) because that’s still a discussion point up in the air.”
