Democrats push Puerto Rican voters to outmuscle Cuban Republicans in Florida

Democrats are trying to mobilize Puerto Ricans to outmuscle Republican Cubans at the voting booth and help Joe Biden beat Donald Trump in November.

They’re pouring effort into registering Puerto Ricans to vote and educating them about the U.S. election system, which differs greatly from the one they’re used to.

They’re also reminding Puerto Ricans about what they consider Trump’s mistreatment of their island after Hurricane Maria. With Spanish-language ads, digital campaigns and traditional caravans, they’re stressing that Puerto Ricans could be a key for Biden in Florida.

But they find themselves at a disadvantage. Florida’s Puerto Ricans are relatively new to the voting system in the United States and Cuban-Americans are more entrenched in the political fabric here. Democrats say they also have seen Puerto Rican votes lag those of Cuban votes so far, a trend that has been apparent for the past few election cycles.

Florida Democratic political strategist Steve Schale said Friday that Puerto Rican turnout in the state is higher than in recent years, but it is “not necessarily where we want it to be.”

He referenced data from Hawkfish, a left-leaning political data agency, which shows Cuban voters in every age category casting more ballots than Puerto Rican voters as of Thursday’s data.

Cubans and Puerto Ricans in Florida make up more than half of all Latinos in the state and nearly two-thirds of eligible Latino voters, according to the Pew Research Center.

However Cubans in the state tend to vote more often and have consolidated the vast majority of their political support with Republicans in statewide and national elections. Cuban-Americans account for nearly 30% percent of Hispanic voters in Florida, according to Equis Research, and the vast majority have indicated they plan to vote for President Trump.

The Republican president also has made significant inroads with Venezuelans and other Latin Americans by linking Biden and Democrats with socialism.

But Puerto Ricans, who make up about 27% of the state’s Hispanic voting population, are a more complicated bloc.

A growing population

U.S. census figures for 2019 estimate there are roughly 1.2 million Puerto Ricans in Florida and about 1.6 million Cubans.

The population of Puerto Ricans in Florida has been growing by about 5% per year since 2017, said Carlos Vargas-Ramos, director of public policy for Center for Puerto Rican Studies in New York.

Ramos said the jump has been driven in large part by a wave of Puerto Ricans who came to the United States after Hurricane Maria ravaged the island in 2017. Many settled around the Interstate 4 corridor in Orlando and Tampa.

A sizable share also have found their way to parts of Broward and Miami-Dade, he said.

A large majority of those new arrivals are eligible voters whom both Republicans and Democrats have courted.

But Ramos said Puerto Ricans have not yet consolidated a significant political presence in the way that Cubans have in South Florida. “In that sense, the Cuban population has a lead over any other group of Hispanics in the state of Florida.”

According to an analysis of census data by the Pew Research Center, Cubans have traditionally had one of the highest turnout rates in national elections. In 2016, 58% of eligible Cubans voted and only 46% of Puerto Ricans.

Ramos said many have used data points like this to suggest that Puerto Ricans are not interested in voting as much as other Latino populations.

But he said his research, gathered from a combination of census and voter data from 2000 to 2012, suggests that turnout among Puerto Ricans is actually above 80% when you count only Puerto Rican voters who are actually registered to vote — rather than those who are eligible.

The trick, he said, is getting Puerto Rican voters engaged enough to register.

Harnessing political power

Professor Fernando Rivera, director of the Puerto Rico Research Hub at the University of Central Florida, said a bevy of political organizations have increased their efforts to register and engage Puerto Rican voters in Florida since Hurricane Maria.

Many of those groups have spent time educating Puerto Ricans about the process of voting in the United States, which looks a lot different than voting on the island.

“The day of the election is a holiday" in Puerto Rico, Rivera said. Everyone is off work; bars and liquor stores are closed; and voting happens in unison. “People are not familiar with the fact that you can vote two weeks earlier or that you can do it through mail.”

“That is a bit of a foreign concept for people in Puerto Rico and especially when they come here.”

Luis A. Miranda Jr., chairperson of Latino Victory, a progressive organization that has helped mobilize Latino voters toward Democratic candidates, said his organization has spent a lot of resources and efforts to register Puerto Rican voters, particularly in the I-4 corridor.

Lately, they also have used traditional advertising in Spanish radio and television, along with digital campaigns to target Puerto Rican voters and educate them about the process of early voting and mail-in ballots. Other groups have used caravans, which are a traditional feature of political action on the island, as a way to generate enthusiasm.

“That is the kind of work that I believe that in this cycle is going to end up increasing the Latino turnout, increasing the Puerto Rican turnout in I-4 in particular,” said Miranda Jr.

He said a lot of his messaging has involved telling Puerto Ricans that in the United States there is not just “an election day, but an election cycle.”

Like other community organizers in Florida targeting Latinos, he said that message is particularly important during the COVID-19 pandemic when voters are afraid of congregating in mass in one place on election day.

Political independents

Although Puerto Ricans tend to vote for Democrat politicians in elections, many of them come to the United States and register as political independents, leaving them up for grabs in a sense.

This trend is modeled for most Latinos in the state.

According to a recent report by the Cuban Research Institute at Florida International University, Republicans make up about 25% of all estimated Latino voters in the state. Democrats are about 39% and independents about 36%.

A 2019 EquisLabs poll of 600 Puerto Rican voters in Florida showed that 63% intended to vote for the Democratic candidate for president in the 2020 election. However, only 67% said they were very motivated to vote, versus 78% of Republican-leaning Cubans also polled.

Jorge Duany, director of FIU’s Cuban Research Institute, estimates that nearly 60% of all Cubans in Florida will cast their vote for Donald Trump in the upcoming election. Although younger Cubans who were born and raised in the U.S. have been known to stray to the Democrats, the large majority of the population has remained fervent in their support for Republicans.

It is unclear exactly how Puerto Rican voters will break.

Recent Republican campaigns in the state, like that of U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, have been able to make inroads with Puerto Rican voters.

On the island of Puerto Rico, where many in Florida still have strong ties and travel back and forth, political leaders like Wanda Vázquez Garced, the current governor, have thrown their support toward President Trump.

Bob Cortes, a former state representative who is running to return to the House in an Orlando-area district, said the U.S. economic success during Trump’s tenure — until COVID-19 hit the U.S. in March — resonates among some Puerto Ricans.

“A lot of folks that were leaning somewhat towards Biden have come back,” Cortes, a Republican who grew up in Puerto Rico, said. “We’ve had a good solid economy. We’ve got jobs. We’ve got low fuel prices.”

But Jimmy Torres, the founder of Boricua Vota, an Orlando-based group that focuses on promoting Puerto Rican participation in the political process, said President Trump’s anemic response to Hurricane Maria, which killed over 4,000 Puerto Ricans, left an indelible stamp on the island.

"Donald Trump’s FEMA mismanaged federal funds, mismanaged everything,” Torres said.

He said he and other Puerto Ricans in Orlando have been impressed by Biden’s comprehensive plan for rehabilitating the island and allowing it to determine its future. “That’s a demonstration of respect to Puerto Rico.”

Rivera, of the Puerto Rico Research Hub, said his research shows overwhelming support for Biden among Florida’s Puerto Ricans. Nonetheless, he said Trump doesn’t need a whole lot of support from Puerto Ricans.

“I think the campaign understands that they just need a little support,” he said. While Trump’s messaging around the economy and jobs might not appeal to all Puerto Ricans, that isn’t necessarily the goal.

“Five thousand votes here and there," Rivera said. "If they can get that kind of help from Puerto Rican voting blocs, that would be great for them.”

Like other Democratic strategists, Miranda Jr. is banking on Trump’s treatment of the island after Hurricane Maria to be big turnoff for Puerto Rican voters.

He said he hopes that the growing population in Florida will be more motivated than in recent years to turn out. In fact, he said, it will be crucial for Joe Biden and any other future Democratic challengers to stand a chance at winning the state.

“Puerto Ricans need to over-perform,” he said, pointing in particular to the large concentration of voters in Orlando and Tampa. “When we see that area over-performing, then we know we are doing much better for our Democratic candidates in Florida and ultimately to get the electoral votes that the state has.”

Information from the News Service of Florida was used in this report.

Andrew Boryga can be reached at 954-356-4533 or aboryga@sunsentinel.com. Follow on Twitter @borywrites.

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