Democrats’ recall dilemma: Should they cast a vote for a candidate to replace Gavin Newsom?

Soon, Californians will receive their ballot for the election to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom. That ballot will have two questions: Should Newsom be recalled and, if so, who should take his place.

For many Democrats and other opponents of the recall, question No. 1 is easy. They plan to vote ‘no’.

But what about question No. 2?

That’s a dilemma for Democrats because the best-known recall candidates are Republicans like Newsom’s 2018 opponent John Cox and conservative talk radio host Larry Elder. By not voting on question No. 2, Democratic voters risk ceding the recall election to a candidate whose views they oppose.

Elder, for instance, believes that the minimum wage should be abolished and supports former President Donald Trump. Cox courted Trump’s endorsement in 2018. Former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer, another well-known candidate, supported Trump’s 2020 campaign.

There are 46 candidates on the recall ballot, including nine Democrats.

The California Democratic Party is urging left-leaning voters not to select anyone on the recall ballot’s second question.

“The California Democratic Party is activating voters to vote no on the Republican Recall and leave the second question blank. It’s the only way to stop Republicans who want to take California back to some very dark days,” said party spokeswoman Shery Yang.

Former Newsom spokesman, Nathan Click, reiterated Yang’s advice for Democratic voters.

“Leave it blank. Voting no is the only way to block the Republican power grab and prevent the Republican takeover of California,” Click said.

‘No on recall, yes on Bustamante’

Their united message reflects one of the Democratic Party’s main takeaways from the 2003 recall of then-Gov. Gray Davis. In 2003, then-Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante broke with his party to campaign for governor in the recall election.

Bustamante told his supporters to vote “no on recall, yes on Bustamante.”

That backfired on Democrats, said Democratic strategist Garry South, who worked for Davis at the time of the recall.

“What we found to our chagrin in our polling and focus grouping, was that there was a disturbingly meaningful number of Democrats who thought they could have a two-for-one sale,” South said, meaning Democrats thought they could oust Davis and elect Bustamante.

Instead, Arnold Schwarzenegger, a Republican, became governor.

“The lack of any credible Democrat on the replacement line is of great benefit to Newsom,” South said.

Will Newsom voters choose someone else?

Matt Rexroad, a Republican campaign consultant, disputes that argument. He said that the circumstances now are vastly different than they were in 2003, and that even if voters oppose the recall, they should have a backup plan in case the recall happens.

“You should have a contingency plan. That’s good planning,” he said.

Rexroad said that if Democrats and other recall critics leave question two blank, they are essentially granting a greater percentage of the vote to the more conservative candidates on the ballot.

“They’re basically saying they would rather have Larry Elder than whoever the other Democrats are on the ballot,” Rexroad said.

Some people who voted for Newsom in 2018 are up for grabs. Their perspectives changed during the coronavirus pandemic.

Jonathan Zachreson, founder of Reopen California Schools, said that while he voted for Newsom in 2018, he supports recalling the governor, and he has a replacement in mind. Zachreson’s organization is critical of how Newsom’s coronavirus policies played out in schools.

“Me as an individual, I support (Republican Assemblyman) Kevin Kiley,” he said.

Rob Stutzman, a Republican campaign consultant, said that voters opposed to the recall are a significant bloc that candidates could reach out to. So far, the Republicans in the race mostly are playing to conservative audiences by criticizing Newsom.

Stutzman’s says it’s unclear whether any of them will have the resources to speak to a broader, moderate audience.

“All the candidates on the ballot just don’t seem to have the resources or the strategy to talk to this group of voters,” he said.

Unions also urging no vote on recall’s second question

None of the Democrats on the recall ballot have long records in elected office. They’re a collection of media personalities, like actor Patrick Kilpatrick, and activists, like San Francisco progressive Joel Ventresca.

One of them, social media personality Kevin Paffrath, has been criticizing the Democratic Party’s stance on whether Democrats should bother voting on the ballot’s second question.

“In other words, the CA Democrat Party is willing to GAMBLE 1 year of the Future of California by REFUSING to completely fill out a ballot. Honestly, this is either STUPID or sabotage. Maybe they secretly want to sand bag a Republican for 1 year? Seems petty!” Paffrath wrote on Twitter this week.

But other mainstays of California’s Democratic voting bloc are echoing the party.

The California Labor Federation, for example, expects to reach in excess of 3 million voters by Sept. 14, the last day when people can vote in the recall election.

Labor Federation spokesman Steve Smith is telling its members to focus on voting no on the recall, and leaving the second question blank.

“Question one is where the vote will be decided,” Smith said. “Once workers know that the threat to them and their family resides entirely with question one, they quickly become disinterested in question two.”