Democrats’ Senate Path Is Complicated by Fetterman’s Rocky Debate
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(Bloomberg) -- Democrats’ path to maintaining their razor-thin US Senate majority in the final days of the midterm campaigns was narrowed by John Fetterman’s rocky debate performance in Pennsylvania on the heels of an underwhelming showing from Raphael Warnock in Georgia earlier this month.
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Fetterman’s speech was staccato and he used a closed-captioning device which delayed some answers in his debate against Republican Mehmet Oz, highlighting the Democrat’s still-ongoing recovery from a May stroke. But it was his trouble articulating his policy positions, which cannot be blamed on his health entirely, that was just as troubling for Democratic prospects.
Less than two weeks ago, Warnock, a Georgia US senator and Baptist preacher, failed to deliver the knockout blow in his debate against Republican Herschel Walker, whose campaign had been reeling with scandal over alleged abortion payments to an ex-girlfriend.
Taken together, the lackluster debate showings are unlikely to help Democrats fend off bubbling GOP momentum in the final weeks of the Nov. 8 elections. Pennsylvania and Georgia were once considered Democrats’ strongest chances to hang on to their Senate majority, given the likelihood that the House will flip to Republican control.
Whether the Pennsylvania debate was a game-changer won’t be clear for a few days as the dominant narratives from it emerge because most people have not made up their minds, said Berwood Yost, director of the Franklin & Marshall College Poll.
More than 639,000 people had already voted as of Tuesday, out of 8.8 million registered voters in Pennsylvania. There were 5.1 million ballots cast in the 2018 US Senate race in that state.
A longtime Democratic strategist who watched Tuesday’s debate said Fetterman should make his physician publicly available to answer questions about his recovery, his capacity to fulfill the duties of a US senator and how long it will take him to recover.
Fetterman was in a tough position in deciding whether to debate as polls showed the race tightening and he was hit with political attacks about his health, the person said.
Voters have a much more nuanced view of the Pennsylvania landscape than the reactions on social media might suggest.
Local newspapers in Pennsylvania focused on their policy answers on crime, fracking, inflation and the minimum wage and little about how Fetterman delivered it.
Pennsylvania’s current lieutenant governor kicked off the debate, addressing what he called “the elephant in the room” with his stroke.
But Fetterman’s health isn’t likely to be the deciding issue for many voters, said Democratic strategist Mike Mikus. And Fetterman’s willingness to debate despite his auditory-processing issues will help him with voters -- especially Pennsylvanians who have suffered a stroke or have family members recovering from a major health issue -- while Oz will be hurt by a comment he made on abortion, he said.
Oz said he didn’t believe in federal mandates on abortion, and that the decision to end a pregnancy should be made among “a woman, her doctor and local political officials.”
“I don’t think they’re concerned if he mashes a few words together,” Mikus said of Fetterman. “They care about having the right to choose. And quite frankly, I think Oz just demonstrated why voters in Pennsylvania don’t like him and he’s a historically unpopular nominee.”
But the toughest part of the night for Fetterman, the state’s lieutenant governor, occurred during a sequence in which he appeared flustered after the moderator challenged him on his shifting positions on fracking.
After Fetterman said he always supported fracking, the moderator repeatedly pushed Fetterman to clarify his position, confronting him with a 2018 interview in which he said “I don’t support fracking at all.”
“So how do you square the two?” she asked.
Fetterman hesitated. “I do support fracking. And I don’t -- I don’t -- I do support fracking. And I stand, and I do support fracking,” he said.
But Oz, backed by former President Donald Trump, made a costly mistake as well, potentially gifting Democrats with fresh fodder with which to paint Republicans as outside the country’s mainstream on women’s right to an abortion.
The momentum that Republicans were beginning to enjoy nationally was driven by concerns about inflation and crime overwhelming voter angst over the US Supreme Court’s overturning of federal abortion rights.
Fetterman’s campaign quickly released a new ad targeting suburban women with a clip of Oz’s answer that ends with, “Oz is too extreme for Pennsylvania.”
And President Joe Biden tweeted a clip of Oz’s answer in the debate with the comment, “If Dr. Oz gets his way, where does this end? Would he recommend local officials make decisions about cancer treatments? Colonoscopies? Or is this kind of scrutiny reserved just for women?”
A Biden adviser, who requested anonymity to speak publicly about the debate, noted that the president and Fetterman appeared together last week in Pennsylvania, and said the Senate candidate was smart, impressive and capable. Similar to other Democrats, the person said the focus should be on Oz’s comments about local politicians being involved in women’s health decisions.
Some Republican strategists said Fetterman should have skipped the debate and just taken the relatively minor criticism for dodging out. But Democrats said voters will give Fetterman credit for debating despite the issues from his stroke.
Kristin Davison, a Republican strategist who advised former Bridgewater Associates Chief Executive David McCormick in his Republican primary race with Oz, said she would have advised Fetterman to skip the debate because he went in with a slight lead that may now evaporate.
“They could have done enough to counter the argument that he was hiding,” Davison said. “He’s probably ahead a point or two, and when you’re winning, all you benefit from a debate is making mistakes. That’s what happened last night.”
--With assistance from Christian Hall, Gregory Korte and Josh Wingrove.
(Updates with Biden advisor comment in 22nd paragraph)
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