Democrats tiptoe around Sinema’s political future

Senate Democrats are in a tough spot over Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s (I-Ariz.) surprise announcement that she will leave the Democratic Party: looking to keep her close in the tightly divided chamber even as some in the party look to oust her in 2024.

Sinema’s decision to register as an Independent creates the prospect of a three-way general election race for her seat, which Republicans believe would give them a clear path to picking it up.

Arizona Democrats are already talking about potential challengers, including Rep. Ruben Gallego (D-Ariz.) and Rep. Greg Stanton (D-Ariz.), showing no sign that they’ll give Sinema a clear shot at keeping her seat as an Independent.

Democratic senators on Monday declined to say whether they would support a Democratic challenger against Sinema or comment on whether the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee or allied outside groups, such as Senate Majority PAC, should back her reelection.

“It’s her personal decision. I just hope she’s with us for some important votes in the future,” said Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), the second-ranking member of the Senate Democratic leadership.

Sinema, who is 46, has not said whether she plans to run for reelection.

Durbin declined to comment on whether Sinema should run for reelection, or whether he would support her if she did, after she blew up Democratic efforts to raise the corporate tax rate or reform the Senate’s filibuster rule to allow voting rights legislation to pass.

“I’m not going to make that judgment, that’s her judgment,” he said when asked if she would run again.

“I’m not going to tell Arizona what to do,” he added when asked whether Democrats should back her as an Independent.

Durbin also declined to say whether he would discourage Gallego or another Democrat from running for Sinema’s seat.

Sen. Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii), a usually outspoken member of the Democratic caucus, was also tight-lipped on Sinema’s decision to leave the party.

She emphasized that Sinema’s decision will not affect the Democrats’ outright majority control of the Senate, which they won when Sen. Raphael Warnock defeated Herschel Walker in the Georgia runoff.

“She’s part of our 51 Democratic caucus so that’s what’s important,” Hirono said.

Asked if she was disappointed that Sinema had decided to quit the Democratic Party, Hirono replied: “No, she does what she does.”

“It’s not going to change the fact that we’re going to have a majority in the committees. That’s very important,” she added.

Sen. Patty Murray (Wash.), a member of the Democratic leadership and the incoming Senate president pro tempore, said she didn’t want to speculate on Sinema’s potential 2024 reelection campaign.

“I’ll answer that when she decides what she’s going to do,” she said.

Sen. Debbie Stabenow (Mich.), the newly reelected chairwoman of the Democratic Policy and Communications Committee, ducked quickly into Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer’s (D-N.Y.) office for a Monday leadership meeting, dodging questions about Sinema.

Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), a leading Senate liberal, said she wasn’t focused on Sinema’s party switch or the prospects of keeping her seat from falling into Republican hands in 2024.

“I’m just not focused on that. I’m focused on the things we need to do in the next two weeks,” she said, citing the need to pass an omnibus spending package and legislation to raise the federal debt ceiling high enough to avoid a standoff with House Republicans next year.

Warren also declined to comment on Sinema’s most controversial decisions, such as refusing to back a Democratic push to raise the top marginal income tax rate for wealthy individuals or raising the corporate tax rate — two key pillars of President Biden’s agenda.

Schumer made no mention of Sinema during his Monday afternoon floor speech opening the Senate for the week and instead talked about the year-end spending negotiations and the resurgence of antisemitism in the United States.

Sinema’s announcement prompted speculation on Capitol Hill that fellow centrist Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), who is also up for reelection in 2024, might follow her and leave the Democratic Party.

But Manchin, who flirted with the idea of declaring himself an Independent in 2021, ruled out the idea.

“I’ll look at all of these things, I’ve always looked at all these things, but I have no intention of doing anything right now,” he told reporters Monday.

“Whether I do something later, I can’t tell you what the future’s going to bring. I can only tell you where I am and my mindset” is now, he said.

Manchin, who is up for reelection in 2024, added, “I want to work with Kyrsten every day, the same as I have before.”

He later said, “I tremendously respect her decision and wish her the best.”

Manchin has not yet made a public decision about running for a fourth term in a state that former President Trump won with 68.6 percent of the vote in 2020.

Manchin threatened in October of last year to register as an Independent if fellow Senate Democrats couldn’t accept his opposition to elements of Biden’s agenda.

“I said, me being a moderate centrist Democrat, if that causes you a problem, let me know and I’d switch to be an Independent. But I’d still be caucusing with Democrats,” he said at the time.

Hirono said Monday she wasn’t surprised that Sinema officially decided to register as an Independent.

Colleagues noted that Sinema almost never attended their caucus lunches even before leaving the party.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.), who threatened to support a primary challenger against Sinema when Democrats’ frustration with her hit its peak in January, on Monday declined to say whether he would campaign against her in 2024, telling reporters the next election is a long way off.

Sen. Steve Daines (Mont.), the incoming chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, said Republicans are following the political developments carefully.

“We’re going to keep a very close eye on Arizona,” he said. Asked if the possibility of a three-way race for Sinema’s seat in 2024 helps Republicans, Daines replied: “What do you think?”

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