Democrats wanted to flip Ron Wright’s seat. Instead they wonder why they were shut out

Democrat Jana Lynne Sanchez, confident the Congressional District 6 seat could be flipped, thought she would be in a runoff with Republican Susan Wright for the U.S. House seat that was held by Wright’s husband.

Instead, Democrats were shut out of a runoff in the special election.

Wright received 19.2% of the votes and Republican state Rep. Jake Ellzey 13.9%, according to unofficial results from the Texas Secretary of State’s office. Just 354 votes separated Ellzey and Sanchez.

Political analysts and observers say low Democrat turnout, a field of 23 candidates and a district that favors Republicans played a role in keeping a Democrat out of the race.

While former President Trump credits his endorsement of Wright, Sanchez thinks the outcome on May 1 could have been different if the state Democratic Party did more to step in and support a single candidate.

The district covers southeast Tarrant County, including most of Arlington and Mansfield, and all of Ellis and Navarro counties. The special election was called after the death of U.S. Rep. Ron Wright in February. A date for the runoff has not been set.

“Just stand back during this runoff, because it will get ugly, and I’ll get loud,” said Matt Angle, director of the Lone Star Project, which works to elect Democrats.

What went wrong for Democrats in TX-06?

Most of the district’s voters were concentrated in Tarrant County, where 52,752 people cast ballots. There were 20,917 votes cast in Ellis County and 4,705 in Navarro.

Looking closer at Tarrant County, Wright won with 17.4% of the vote. Sanchez was second at 15.7%, and Democrat Shawn Lassiter received 11.3%. Sanchez and Lassiter did well in southeast Tarrant County.

The morning after the election, Rice University political science professor Mark Jones said the fragmented votes between Democrats was something the party couldn’t afford with two strong Republican candidates like Wright and Ellzey on the ballot.

It’s clear Democratic voters didn’t turn out with the same level of enthusiasm as their Republican counterparts, Jones said. Democrats won less than 40% of all the votes.

“While Democrats will attempt to pass this off as a district that they never had any hope of winning — and they are right, it’s a pink district that leans toward the Republican Party — it still was their best hope during 2021 of all the special elections of actually flipping a Republican held seat,” Jones said.

Democrat Stephen Daniel, who ran for the seat in 2020 against Ron Wright but did not run in the special election, agrees that lagging Democratic turnout was a key factor in why a Democrat didn’t advance. In 2020, there was a push to get voters to the polls, he said. He won 44% of the votes to Wright’s 53%.

“I wish the national party would have stepped in,” he said. “They didn’t have to pick a horse in the race. I know there were the 10 Democrats running, but they didn’t have to pick anybody. They just had to drive turnout.”

The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and the Democratic National Committee did not immediately return requests for comment.

Angle pointed to three reasons he believes a Democrat didn’t advance: Several capable candidates, but none was dominant; a crowded field; and a district drawn to favor Republicans.

Angle wasn’t surprised that national organizations sat out. (Some, such as the Latino Victory Fund, the BOLD PAC and the Collective PAC , did weigh in on the race.) The Lone Star Project didn’t pick sides in the first round, he said.

“It was so unpredictable,” Angle said. “It didn’t make sense for Democratic organizations to spend a lot of money in the first round. Had a Democrat made the runoff, then you reassess.”

Could a Texas Democrats endorsement have changed the outcome?

Sanchez wishes the state Democratic Party would have taken advantage of a rule that allows it make an endorsement in a special election. But a party official said the rule is rarely, if ever, used.

“What the chair did do, which was I think the absolute appropriate action, is prepare to put forth the best effort we possibly could in a runoff,” said Bill Brannon, senior adviser at the Texas Democratic Party.

Sanchez said she would have backed whoever was picked, and an endorsement would have allowed for organization around a single candidate, including when it comes to fundraising. She described donor confusion over who had the best chance of winning, and a Democratic Party that she said was focused more on fairness than winning.

“The fact that there is a rule that could have been used to have prevented this debacle is central to this,” she said.

Sanchez said the national party was in a “very difficult position.” Two women of color were front-runners — Sanchez and Lassiter — and both had support from national organizations, Sanchez said.

“I can fully understand that they didn’t get involved and back one over another,” Sanchez said.

Donald Trump attributes Democrat shutout to his endorsement

The day before early voting ended, Trump broke his silence and endorsed Wright. After announcing his support, Trump went on a town hall held by phone to reiterate his choice.

He took credit for the Democrat shutout, according to a statement tweeted by the Texas Tribune’s Patrick Svitek on Monday.

“Please explain to the Democrats and RHINOs (Republicans in Name Only) that the reason Texas-06 completely shut out Democrats in Saturday’s Jungle Primary is because of my Endorsement of Susan Wright, who surged last week after receiving it,” the statement reads. “The Democrats were shut out and now it will be a contest between two Republicans, a very big win.”

Wright saw an Election Day bump, according to an analysis by Jones, indicating Trump’s endorsement was beneficial. Ellzey and fellow Republican Brian Harrison, who worked in the Trump administration, saw the opposite effect. (Jones cautioned that it’s not a perfect experiment, since Trump’s support came close to the end of early voting but not after.)

“I don’t know if we can say Trump led to … the Democratic shutout,” Jones said. “In the sense that, if anything, it seems he probably helped Wright a little bit and he hurt Ellzey. And in the sense that he hurt Ellzey, he made it more likely that Jana Lynne Sanchez could have in theory leapfrogged … on Election Day.”

Trump can take credit for Wright’s “convincing first place finish,” Jones said, noting that there was clear separation between her and other candidates.

Asked on election night whether he was surprised by the outcome, Ellzey said he didn’t believe anyone knew what would happen.

“It’s really never happened like this where there’s 23 candidates, it’s not a normal election season,” he said. “It’s in a municipal election season with a lot of different characters and a lot of different people jumping in,” he said. “I don’t think anything in this race surprises me, so I think it was wide open.”

Wright said a couple of factors led to two Republicans in the runoff. For one, a strong field of Republicans drove Republican turnout, she said. She also thinks voters in the district aren’t pleased with what they’re seeing from the Biden administration.

“I will tell you that I think having President Trump’s endorsement was good,” Wright said when asked specifically about the former president’s role in Democrats being shut out. “I think a number of us would have liked to have had it. I was honored that he liked what I had to say and felt strongly enough to endorse me, that I would do well with the America-first agenda. And listen, in the 6th District, that is still popular.”

Who do Democrats support?

Jones and TCU Political Science Professor James Riddlesperger have said many Democratic voters are likely to sit out the runoff.

“Asking which one of the Trump candidates is preferable to the Democrats is a question that answers itself,” Riddlesperger said.

But at least one Democrat has publicly taken a position in the race. Daniel, the Democrat who ran for the 6th Congressional District in 2020, wrote on Twitter that he would vote for Ellzey.

“(Democrats) may be the deciding factor in this election and we need to do everything we can to make sure the Trump-endorsed Susan Wright loses,” the Monday tweet reads. “Also, (Sen. Ted Cruz) is against Ellzey. Good enough for me.”

Talking to the Star-Telegram, Daniel stressed: “I’m not endorsing Ellzey.”

“This is one of those choices that I hoped I would never have to make,” he said.