Dems Trapped Between Israel and Gaza on the Campaign Trail

Last month, Sen. Jon Tester (D-MT) was speaking at a boozy annual Montana fundraiser, known locally as the “Democratic prom,” when he encountered a ritual that has become commonplace for high-profile Democrats these days.

Interruption.

“I am a Jew! I am a Democrat,” a protester holding a Palestinian flag shouted during Tester’s speech. “You have blood on your hands,” the protester yelled, before sheriff deputies dragged him out of the building, according to a Montana Free Press report.

The outcry at the dinner was no isolated incident for Tester. Montana activists who oppose Israel’s war in Gaza have appeared at other speaking engagements; last week, protesters vandalized Tester’s office with black and red paint that read, “Tester funds genocide.”

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Tester, a relative moderate with a pro-Israel record, is running for re-election in the most challenging state for any incumbent Democrat this year. The party will be hard-pressed to defend its thin Senate majority—and advance key liberal policies—unless Tester defeats his likely Republican opponent, Tim Sheehy.

But the progressive contingent loudly protesting Tester sees little point in keeping Democrats in power unless they use it to demand a ceasefire in Gaza, where Israel’s brutal offensive since the Hamas terror attacks of Oct. 7 has killed tens of thousands of civilians and sparked international outcry.

“Not a single Palestinian child’s life is worth a Democratic Senate majority,” a Montanans for Palestine leader, Sophia Fortunato, told The Daily Beast.

Against this backdrop, Tester faces a stark political dilemma. He can’t afford to lose virtually any Democratic votes in a conservative state, and if these organizers mobilize against him—or simply stay home in November—it could pave the way for a Republican victory. But Tester also can’t win in Montana if he fails to appeal to moderate and right-leaning swing voters who back Israel.

The senator has tried to strike a delicate balance. A Tester spokesperson told The Daily Beast he “supports ongoing efforts to reach a negotiated pause agreed upon by both sides that would release the remaining hostages and save innocent lives.” But the senator believes the “top priority” of the U.S. “must be the release of American hostages and allowing Israel to effectively counter Hamas—and that response must be targeted and avoid civilian casualties.”

At the same time, Tester has expressed sympathy for Palestinians, pushed for increased humanitarian aid to Gaza, and has made outreach to activists in Montana, with him and his team personally calling some to discuss their concerns. (Fortunato said the communications have not assuaged activists' concerns as Tester did not commit to a ceasefire.)

In 2024, this high-pressure dilemma is hardly unique to Tester or Montana. Virtually every Democratic candidate for Senate in the states that will decide the majority—like Pennsylvania, Ohio, Nevada, and Michigan—is confronting the same pressures ahead of races that could be decided by narrow margins.

How these Democrats navigate this emotionally charged and complex issue could potentially influence the outcome of their elections—and which party controls the Senate next year. Some have been more outspokenly pro-Israel, some have been less so, but all are facing intense scrutiny from a party base that is increasingly organizing around the war in Gaza.

For instance, Sens. Bob Casey (D-PA) and Jacky Rosen (D-NV)—some of the GOP’s top targets—have each faced dramatic calls from progressive activists to support a ceasefire but have remained staunchly supportive of Israel.

In November, hundreds of demonstrators assembled outside of Casey’s Philadelphia office, where they said funeral prayers for Palestinian civilians killed in the war—and placed a symbolic dead body outside of Casey’s door.

Since then, Casey’s core position has not moved significantly—he continues to back Israel. But he has also backed humanitarian aid, sending a letter to President Joe Biden in March urging him to address the humanitarian crisis and famine in Gaza.

On Thursday, in a call with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Biden actually told the Israeli leader that “an immediate ceasefire is essential to stabilize and improve the humanitarian situation and protect innocent civilians” in Gaza, according to the White House, with Biden urging Netanyahu to empower negotiators to make a deal “without delay to bring the hostages home.”

Whether that gives Democrats more latitude to call out Israel—or whether it prompts them to further defend that nation—remains to be seen. But it’s clear that, no matter what position Democrats take, it will upset some constituency. At the moment, however, it’s pro-Palestine protesters who seem most upset.

Take the example of Rosen. She is Jewish and the former president of Nevada’s largest synagogue—and she’s faced some aggressive questions from protesters about her support for Israel. At a Las Vegas meeting focused on Latino issues in January, three women confronted Rosen about why she “supports genocide.” The protesters were escorted from the premises, and Rosen has remained steadfast in her support for Israel.

“We need to support Israel as it works to defend itself and defeat Hamas, rescue the remaining hostages, and keep taking steps to increase humanitarian aid while ensuring Israel limits innocent civilian casualties in Gaza,” Rosen said in a statement to The Daily Beast.

Of the five Democratic Senate campaigns mentioned in this story, only Tester and Rosen’s campaigns provided a comment. The Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee also did not respond to a request for comment.

Most Democrats seem to not want to draw more attention to the wedge issue that Israel has become. All the Democrats, however, seem to hope other concerns will drive voter decisions this election.

While Israel is certainly top-of-mind for many Democrats at the moment, party strategists are confident that, with issues like abortion, democracy, and the economy on the ballot this fall, Israel’s war in Gaza won’t ultimately harm Democratic support to a meaningful degree.

“Americans don’t decide federal elections on the basis of foreign policy,” Michigan-based Democratic strategist Adrian Hemond told The Daily Beast. “There’s no reason to think that that's gonna be different this time.”

But Republicans, who overwhelmingly back Israel, see a favorable opportunity to fault the stark divisions among Democrats on this issue.

“Democrats are caught between their radical base, which hates Israel, and the majority of Americans who do not like Hamas terrorists,” said Mike Berg, communications director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “It’s a tough place to be.”

The recent pro-Palestine protest votes in Democratic presidential primaries distilled the possible stakes for vulnerable Senate Democrats. In February, over 100,000 Democrats in Michigan voted “uncommitted” against Biden in the state’s primary to pressure the president to call for a ceasefire; in Minnesota, 19 percent of primary voters, or 45,000, did the same. The shots across the bow reportedly sparked policy change within the White House.

While senators have barely a fraction of the influence that Biden does on this issue, they can put pressure on the president or consider policy steps like conditioning U.S. military aid to Israel.

Senate Democrats not facing re-election, even those in the historically pro-Israel camp, have recently upped their Israel criticism. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-NY) called for new elections in Israel in a sharp rebuke of Netanyahu’s leadership. Twenty-six Senate Democrats are also now on record supporting a ceasefire.

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The movement in the Senate reflects a crescendo of support for a ceasefire among Democrats. In February, a Data for Progress poll found that 63 percent of Democrats support the U.S. calling for a permanent ceasefire. Progressive groups rallying behind Palestine are casting more moderate Democrats as out of touch with the rest of the party.

“Poll after poll shows that the overwhelming number of Democratic voters nationwide across the ideological spectrum support a ceasefire, ending unconditional military funding to Netanyahu's military, and oppose the Israeli military's actions in Gaza,” said Usamah Andrabi, spokesperson for the left-wing group Justice Democrats.

Still, a March poll from Statista and YouGov of top voter issues in 2024 bears Hemond’s logic out. Only two percent of Democrats ranked foreign policy as their priority, compared to 15 percent citing inflation, 13 percent selecting the climate, and 12 percent choosing abortion.

Those issues are what frontline Democrats should be focused on this election cycle, said Dan Kalik, politics and strategy head of the Democratic grassroots organization Swing Left. On Israel, Kalik—who previously worked for the progressive Israel group J Street—said he doesn’t expect voters to punish Democrats in swing states at the polls even if they are subject to protests.

“Despite various issues that divide Democrats—and this isn't the only one—I think most people in the party and in the ecosystem are taking a more nuanced view about the war and what should be done,” Kalik told The Daily Beast.

The political incentives for Democrats to appeal to pro-Israel interests remain strong, however, despite the progressive voters increasingly voting on the issue alone.

AIPAC, the most powerful pro-Israel group in politics, is a key player in races because of its willingness to spend big to help its candidates.

Tester, Rosen, and Casey’s approaches have managed to appease AIPAC, which has endorsed all three vulnerable incumbents. The group told The Daily Beast that they “have demonstrated a strong commitment to advance the U.S.-Israel relationship.”

“At this critical moment for Israel, pro-Israel candidates are standing with the Jewish state in its just and moral fight to remove the Hamas terrorists from power,” AIPAC spokesperson Marshall Wittmann said in a statement.

Of the frontliners who do not have an AIPAC endorsement, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH)—who has also faced anti-war protests at his office—has not called for a ceasefire. But in leaked comments from a private call Brown held with social media influencers, the senator said he did not trust Hamas or Netanyahu to abide by the terms of a ceasefire.

In Michigan, Rep. Elissa Slotkin (D-MI) has called for a ceasefire. Slotkin—who is Jewish, running for Senate, and experienced in Middle Eastern policy from her service in the Central Intelligence Agency—has not faced major pro-Palestinian protests, at least publicly, for her Israel stance. In the state with the highest Arab-American population per capita, and a contingent of voters who have proven their willingness to protest elected officials at the polls, the lack of major backlash is noteworthy.

Many progressives increasingly see AIPAC support as a red line, not only because of the group’s Israel advocacy but because it receives extensive funding from wealthy Republicans.

“Any candidate running as a Democrat should understand that aligning with Netanyahu, AIPAC, and their Republican megadonors puts you on the far-right fringe of the Democratic Party's base,” Andrabi said.

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While the issue is splitting the party, Hemond advised against the frontline Democrats engaging directly with the advocates pushing for a leftward policy shift. He instead said Democrats should keep their eye on more moderate swing voters.

“They're not engaging with the protesters that much, which is smart politics on their part,” Hemond said.

“This election is going to be won or lost for Democrats in these competitive seats by capturing independents or even Republican leaning voters,” he continued. “Jon Tester doesn't need to care what the protesters think, he needs to care what soft Republicans think. Same thing is true for Sherrod Brown.”

But the protesters will continue to care what incumbents like Tester and Brown think. Protesting Democrats—rather than the Republicans more likely to promote aggressive, anti-Palestinian rhetoric—makes some sense, according to Fortunato, the Montana organizer. Democrats depend on young, progressive activists. Republicans don’t.

“If Tester is supposed to be our Democratic leader in the state, and there are other Democratic political candidates that are calling for a ceasefire. I think there's a precedent that's been set there,” she said.

So long as the war continues, however, attempting the balancing act will not satisfy most progressives. And organizers are well-attuned to the electoral pressures at hand.

“As an organization,” Fortunato said, “we are going to be leveraging our voting power with Jon Tester until he calls for a ceasefire.”

Read more at The Daily Beast.

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