Denmark’s Frederiksen Set to Lose Majority in General Election

Christian Wienberg
·4 min read
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(Bloomberg) -- Denmark’s Social Democrat prime minister is set to lose her parliamentary majority in a general election, giving her no option but to strike a deal with a new center party if she wants to cling to power.

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The projected result indicates Mette Frederiksen can only secure a new four-year term with the help of a kingmaker in the middle of the political spectrum. Lars Lokke Rasmussen, who formed the Moderates just five months ago, hasn’t said whom he will support.

Given the consensus-driven nature of Danish politics and the krone’s peg to the euro, markets are unlikely to move on the election result, even as long and difficult talks are expected to form a new government. Should the opposition rise to power instead, it’s possible policy makers would agree to cut some taxes to ease the burden on households.

Frederiksen’s party already began making overtures to Lokke Rasmussen, who served two terms as prime minister since 2009.

“We have to reach out and form a broad government,” Social Democrats’ Kaare Dybvad, minister of the interior, told broadcaster DR. “We’re facing massive challenges and problems relating to inflation and energy and it’s probably healthy to have a solid broad collaboration over the center of the political spectrum. These talks will now have to start.”

Frederiksen and her allies garnered 46.1% support, compared with 43.3% for the right-leaning opposition, according to a projection by DR as just over half of the ballots had been tallied late on Tuesday. Lokke Rasmussen’s Moderates had 9.2%.

In the absence of a majority for any of the blocs, the election result sets off talks among parliamentary parties on who can secure the needed backing in parliament. When they reach a deal, it’s presented to the Queen and marks the formal shift of power.

Often the governing coalition has a minority in the legislature, but is supported in any votes by allies to ensure the government’s legislation passes.

Denmark isn’t the only country where the Social Democrats have recently lost support. In neighboring Sweden, Magdalena Andersson’s government was defeated by the right-wing opposition in September. The Swedish vote featured a surge in support for the once-shunned anti-immigrant party Sweden Democrats, with the September general election in Italy also paving the path for the most right-wing government in that country since World War II.

Grand Coalition

Frederiksen, 44, has said she’s willing to form a grand coalition spanning the political spectrum with Lokke Rasmussen and the parties from the right. But the opposition leader, Jakob Ellemann-Jensen of the Liberals, has ruled out such a partnership, partly due to the prime minister’s role in a decision to kill the country’s mink population during the pandemic.

The election centered on Frederiksen’s trustworthiness following the order to cull 17 million mink that was later found to be unlawful. Trust in her cabinet was further eroded after revelations during a parliamentary probe that she and several key government employees had deleted text messages from their phones.

While Frederiksen received praise in some quarters for showing strong leadership during the pandemic, rivals have painted her as power-hungry and authoritarian and she has countered the criticism by saying she has been treated more harshly than a male politician would have been in a similar situation.

Campaign Trail

Much of the campaigning in the elections focused on Denmark’s free health-care, where long lines for treatment formed during the pandemic and a nurse strike last year. Nursing staff shortages are exacerbating the issue. Another issue that’s been top of mind for voters is the climate. The country where pigs outnumber humans two-to-one is bristling with the environmental impact of agriculture, using taxes to bring about emission cuts.

Denmark was one of the best among advanced economies in rebounding from the pandemic, with worsening labor shortages triggering warnings from economists about an overheating since last summer. The surge in energy prices and the war in Ukraine helped drive inflation to double digits for the first time in four decades, forcing the government to introduce a string of measures to soften the blow from higher prices. Still, credit costs have also grown as the central bank ended its decade-long era of negative interest rates.

Even the prime minister addressed the issue after voting, saying that conversations during the campaign have shown that “no doubt that inflation is what pressures Danes the most at the moment.”

(Updates with comment from interior minister in fifth paragraph, projected tally in sixth)

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