Departure of incumbents means a state Senate ballot with new names in parts of Avon, Manchester, Middletown, Glastonbury and elsewhere

With nine central Connecticut lawmakers leaving this year, voters will get to choose between all-new candidates in six state House races and three Senate contests on Election Day.

Republican and Democratic strategists are pursuing their separate versions of the same approach: Try to hang onto seats that their party had held, and chip away at districts where the other side held power.

Incumbency is typically a massive benefit in state elections. There can be exceptions: A super-strong national red or blue wave will influence results, and widespread, severe dissatisfaction with the majority party’s performance usually means incumbents will face a “vote them out” atmosphere. A scandal or disastrous voting record also can doom an incumbent.

But barring that, data favors incumbents heavily. The non-profit Ballotpedia studied Connecticut’s results in 2020 and reported that when incumbent state representatives and senators ran, they won 95% of the time.

An open race — with no incumbency advantage to either side — is different: Name recognition, fundraising, door-to-door campaigning, previous public service and other factors play a bigger role.

In central Connecticut, there are three such races in the state Senate. Democrats currently hold office in two of the districts, so they’ll need to win two to come out even:

In Senate District 4 in Glastonbury, Manchester, Bolton and Andover, Democrat Steve Cassano is leaving his seat after 12 years.

Manchester businessman MD Masudur Rahman is making his debut in politics by running on the Democratic ticket. He has been endorsed by the Working Families Party.

Rahman, a Bangladeshi immigrant, last year founded the Bangladesh Bhaban, which he bills as New England’s first Bangladeshi Community Center. He is an advocate for unions, public-option health insurance, universal pre-kindergarten, transit-oriented development and Complete Streets programs.

Jacqueline Crespan, minority leader of Manchester’s board of directors, is trying to win the seat on the GOP side.

Crespan, an immigrant from Uganda and long-time Manchester real estate investor, has won endorsement by the Connecticut Fraternal Order of Police. She has said she would have voted against the state’s police accountability bill.

Too many state residents feel unsafe and overtaxed, according to Crespan, who also is campaigning on the Republican theme of giving parents more control over local education.

In Senate District 8, Republican Kevin Witkos’ retirement creates an open seat that covers parts of Avon, Barkhamsted, Canton, Colebrook, Granby, Hartland, Harwinton, New Hartford, Norfolk, Simsbury and Torrington.

Avon school board member Lisa Seminara is running on the Republican ticket, and has been endorsed by the Independent Party as well.

She said she would overhaul the state’s police accountability bill, and wrote on her campaign website “Democrat legislators passed a 2020 bill that codified distrust of law enforcement.”

Seminara contends that state mandates are excessive and that communities should retain more control of issues including zoning and education, and said she’d push for tougher penalties for illegal fentanyl dealers.

On the Democratic side, Paul Honig contends that Seminara won’t publicly address issues like tougher gun control measures or protection for abortion rights. Honig has endorsements from Moms Demand Action, Planned Parenthood and the Connecticut League of Conservation Voters.

Honig said he supports early voting, and wants a new state board reviewing prescription drug affordability and caps on exorbitant prices. He believes the state should require school districts to name teams of administrators, teachers, mental-health professionals and police to intervene when they learn of a potentially dangerous behavior.

In Senate District 13, Democrat Mary Daugherty Abrams is retiring. The district includes part of Middletown along with Meriden, Cheshire and Middlefield.

Jan Hochadel of Meriden, vice president of the American Federation of Teachers’ Connecticut chapter, is looking to keep the seat Democratic. She is also endorsed by the Working Families Party.

Under questioning at a candidates forum this month, Hochadel acknowledged that relatively lenient criminal justice laws for youth need to be amended. But the intent to protect young people from life-changing punishment shouldn’t be abandoned, she added.

“There’s really no good answer for juvenile justice yet. We all want to be safe in our homes and our cars,” she said. “But when we’re dealing with children there is a fine line between the accountability and possibly ruining their lives.”

She wants to convene a conference of educators, mental-health professionals, probation officers and others to come up with solutions. She also favors protecting the state’s Project Labor Agreements, saying they help ensure that contractors provide benefits and hire a skilled workforce. She wants the state to better support local school systems that are trying to provide new courses in Black and Latino studies.

Republican Joe Vollano of Meriden, who is also endorsed by the Independent Party, has campaigned hard on a theme of stronger law enforcement, claiming the state’s police accountability bill has handcuffed police and routinely prevents them from conducting car searches that could curb the flow of illegal opioids into the state.

“We have juveniles stealing cars and taking police on wild chases, but that’s not considered a ‘serious’ offense,” he said at the forum. “Instead of being through in the system, they’re being released back to their parents. They know it’s open season on the public because of the laws passed by the state legislature.”

Vollano also wants more parental control in local education, and promises he’d protect the Second Amendment. In his YouTube podcast, he attacked Republican lieutenant governor candidate Laura Devlin for social media comments praising Connecticut’s gun laws, warning “She needs to go. Every gun owner in this state should be terrified to let this woman anywhere near power.”

Don Stacom can be reached at dstacom@courant.com.