Derby: Experts pick Charge It, White Abarrio; I pick the dread No. 1 post | Michael Arace

Annually, I write about the Kentucky Derby with no special insight.

I know the race is for 3-year-olds – veritable toddlers in human years – who will be running a distance (1 1/4 miles, or eight furlongs) they have never covered before and may never again. It is staged in front of a roaring crowd of 150,000, amid an atmosphere these equine athletes have never seen before and will never see again.

Sorting through the million variables in this veritable diaper Derby is a job for intelligent and dispassionate handicappers. That is not me. I am an emotional animal who must heel at the $2 window.

The 1986 Kentucky Derby set me on this path of self-discovery.

That year, I put a couple of bucks on Ferdinand. He was trained by a 76-year-old, Charlie Whittingham, a living legend who had never before won at Churchill Downs. He was ridden by a 54-year-old, Bill Shoemaker, a living legend with three Derby victories over four decades.

Ferdinand went off at 18-to-1. He came out of the No. 1 starting gate. He should have been crushed on the rail by the first turn.

Prior to the race, ABC’s Jack Whittaker asked Shoemaker if the No. 1 post was any kind of handicap. Shoemaker said, “I don’t think No. 1 position is the best position you can have because the rail kinda comes out a little bit right at the start. But he is not a real quick horse anyway, so it’ll probably be all right.”

Ferdinand went from last to first and I fell in love with closers. It turned into a curse for every first Saturday in May. I lost more than a few Jeffersons.

For 36 years, I have been waiting for another Ferdinand.

I’ve been waiting for another Whittingham, the “Bald Eagle,” who never brought a colt to the Derby unless he thought he was ready. I’ve been waiting for another “Willie the Shoe” Shoemaker, whose trip in 1986 might be the greatest piece of jockeying in Derby history.

Saturday brings the 148th running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. Post time is 6:57 p.m. This year’s field of 20 is deep in talent with no clear favorite. As usual, I summoned my two favorite handicappers to provide their analysis.

“The race is wide-open,” said Bob Clancy, former racing editor at the Hartford Courant. “There’s no 50-to-one shot in the field. It’s really tough to pick. I knocked it down to seven fairly quickly, but this race could go anywhere.”

Last year, Clancy picked longshot Mandaloun to win, and he did – but only after Medina Spirit was disqualified for testing positive for a banned substance. (Medina Spirit’s trainer, the legendary Bob Baffert, has been banned from this year’s Derby and Preakness, but his veritable proxy, Tim Yakteen, has two Baffert-trained horses entered Saturday. Bah.)

This year, Clancy's superfecta looks like this: Charge It (gate No. 4, morning line odds of 20-1), Epicenter (No. 3, 7-2), Mo Donegal (No. 1, 10-1) and Taiba (No. 12, 12-1).

“Three more horses I’ll mention are Cyberknife (No. 16, 20-1), Simplification (No. 13, 20-1) and White Abarrio (No. 15, 10-1),” Clancy said.

Last year, former Dispatch racing editor Scott Davis picked Hot Rod Charlie because Davis knows what he's doing. I picked Hot Rod because his father, Oxbow, was like an old friend. Hot Rod finished second.

This year, Davis is going with White Abarrio to win and he’s playing him with Epicenter, Mo Donegal and Zandon (No 10, 3-1).

“The chalk looks pretty good here,” Davis said, “but who likes to bet chalk?”

The morning-line favorites were, in order, Zandon, Epicenter, Messier (No. 6, 8-1) and White Abarrio. Their odds will change right up to race time.

Generally speaking, Epicenter is considered the horse best-primed to win Saturday. But he’s not best-positioned. On his left, he has brutish Mo Donegal on the rail. On his right, he has pure speed in Summer is Tomorrow (No. 4, 30-1).

Epicenter, a frontrunner, could get squeezed between Mo and the field, or he can try to run early with Summer is Tomorrow and empty his tank too early.

Zandon, a closer, has been flying in his pre-Derby workouts. But he couldn’t beat Epicenter when they went head-to-head at the Risen Star in February.

My pick is Mo Donegal.

The last horse to win from the No. 1 gate was Ferdinand, 36 years ago. A major reason for this is the points system that replaced the graded stakes criteria for Derby qualifying beginning in 2013. That was the last year a deep closer (Orb) won the Run for the Roses.

Since, the points system has tended to consistently favor horses who get clear of traffic problems and run with the early pace. We’re talking about quality frontrunners or stalkers who are lucky enough to draw posts Nos. 5-15.

This year, with no clear favorite in the field, the dread No. 1 post seems even more dreadful. I’m going with Mo anyway.

His trainer, Todd Pletcher, has won two Derbies and his jockey, Irad Ortiz, is quality. Pletcher and Ortiz came out of the No. 1 gate with Known Agenda and finished eighth last year. They will have a plan.

They have a better horse this year, a nimble, quick-footed colt who tends to fly over the final furlong (see: Wood Memorial). This is an athlete who focuses on closing the deal. He is vaguely reminiscent of a horse that still charges down the stretch in my distant memory.

Mo Donegal may never again go off at 10 to 1.

marace@dispatch.com

This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: Kentucky Derby is a wide-open affair with no clear favorite in field