DeSantis 2028? Analysts say he must overcome 'aloof, awkward and weird' perception

Even as Republican voters rejected him as a presidential candidate in 2024, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis seemed to take solace in the fact that some encouraged him to run again in 2028.

“They were coming up to me saying, ‘We want you in 2028, we love you, man,’" DeSantis told reporters in South Carolina on the day after his blowout loss in the the Iowa Caucuses.

During an interview with NBC News that same day, DeSantis said voters told him, “I'm going to do Trump this time and do you next time.”

So will there be a next time for DeSantis?

'Who knows?': Can DeSantis learn from many missteps?

Much like the hype that built for years around DeSantis’ 2024 campaign, there already is speculation about whether the governor could run again for president in 2028.

DeSantis is just 45 and has nearly three more years as governor to regroup and lay the groundwork for a '28 run.

Many presidents ran and lost, sometimes multiple times, before finally winning, including Joe Biden, George H.W. Bush, Ronald Reagan and Richard Nixon. Trump briefly ran for president in 2000 as a Reform Party candidate before winning as a Republican in 2016.

DeSantis ran a dysfunctional campaign that was troubled from the start and never lived up to expectations. It was marked by repeated staffing shakeups, messaging problems and a candidate who failed to connect.

The calamity of the campaign left serious doubts about DeSantis’ political skills.

Yet a poor performance can be a learning experience for a candidate who is willing to adjust and adapt, experts say, and there are reasons to think DeSantis could still have a shot at competing on the national stage.

Polls show GOP voters still view him very favorably — they just like Trump more.

Without Trump in the picture, DeSantis would have an easier time trying to win over conservative Republicans who have proven loyal to the former president.

DeSantis also has near-universal name recognition now, and a broad network of supporters and donors that could give him an advantage if he runs again.

But any chance of success in 2028 likely would require an honest evaluation by DeSantis of where things went wrong in 2024, GOP campaign consultants believe, and a new strategy that tries to correct those mistakes.

DeSantis didn’t close the door on running again during his first interview after dropping out of the 2024 race, but noted there is a lot of uncertainty over what could happen in the next four years.

"We'll see if, what kind of – if we have a country left by 2028," DeSantis told talk-show host Steve Deace, when asked about running again. "So, who knows?”

There are plenty of lessons DeSantis can learn from his campaign, some of which he already has acknowledged, such as an ineffective media strategy. Other adjustments could be harder to make for a candidate who seemed to leave many voters cold.

An image problem: 'Stiff, awkward and weird'

DeSantis’ campaign had plenty of problems. Among the biggest, in the minds of some political professionals, was his presentation.

Known for having a strong grasp of policy, DeSantis was too focused on issues and not enough on selling himself as a person, GOP pollster Frank Luntz said.

Having risen from a modest upbringing in Dunedin to graduate from Yale and Harvard Law School, serve in the military and Congress, win the governorship at age 40 and raise three young children with wife Casey, DeSantis has a compelling personal story.

Combined with his achievements as governor, which were polarizing and controversial but lauded by conservatives, DeSantis was viewed early on as a formidable candidate.

But “the Ron DeSantis on paper did not live up to Ron DeSantis the candidate,” Luntz said.

Wonky and eager to tout his accomplishments in Florida, Luntz said DeSantis seemed “too often to be looking backward rather than ahead” and “was too issue-focused and not sufficiently attribute-focused.”

“In 2024, who you are matters as much as what you think,” Luntz added.

DeSantis never made an emotional connection with voters, said Peter A. Wish, a DeSantis donor, psychologist and GOP fundraiser who served on Mitt Romney’s national finance team in 2012 and later wrote a book about political psychology.

Wish walked away from the 2012 campaign believing Romney’s fatal flaw was the perception that he was aloof, “wooden” and out of touch with average people. His book, “The Candidate’s 7 Deadly Sins,” explores the importance of emotion in appealing to voters.

Both Romney and DeSantis didn’t focus enough on the “likability factor,” Wish said. That requires revealing more about who you are as a person, and focusing less on your policy ideas and achievements.

“I often write, 'Ron, we hardly knew ye,'” Wish said, playing off the title of a book about President John F. Kennedy. “We don’t know who you are, all we know is that you’re a walking set of policies.”

Many observers have noted that DeSantis seemed uncomfortable at times interacting with average voters. Republican strategist Alex Conant, who worked on U.S. Sen. Marco Rubio's presidential campaign, said the perception of DeSantis as awkward was reinforced by an early media strategy that ignored mainstream publications.

“When you don’t engage with the media, you allow your opponents to define you, and DeSantis’ opponents successfully defined him, as aloof, awkward and weird,” Conant said. “If he had spent more time talking to the media and putting himself out there, taking risks, he could have avoided some of the negative memes.”

DeSantis told radio show host Hugh Hewitt he regretted not doing interviews with a wider spectrum of media early in the campaign.

DeSantis 2028? 'Politics all about timing'

While speculation about whether DeSantis could make a comeback in 2028 already has begun, Conant cautioned about predicting that far ahead.

“2028 is a lifetime from now,” Conant said. “It’s anyone’s guess what the world, let alone the party, looks like.”

It’s possible DeSantis missed his moment.

He was at the peak of his popularity heading into 2023 after a dominating reelection win, but will be out of office for two years before the 2028 election.

“Politics is all about timing and DeSantis is never going to be hotter than he was a year ago,” Conant noted.

Additionally, a second run for president likely would be complicated by a more crowded GOP field. Trump kept many presidential hopefuls on the sidelines.

Yet plenty of presidents experienced setbacks before finally winning.

“He absolutely has a career if he wants to be a leader in the Republican Party,” Luntz said. “It’s no different than Reagan in 1976 when he lost to Gerald Ford. But this is very important: His communication needs to be as good as his governing, and it wasn’t this time.”

If DeSantis can learn from his mistakes, he could be a more formidable candidate the second time around.

“First-time candidates rarely win,” Conant said. “There’s real advantages to running and losing in terms of what you learn.”

The Trump card: Will the détente last?

Some of DeSantis’ actions just in the week since he quit the race have stood out.

Despite endorsing Trump, DeSantis came out on X against a bill that would help pay the former president’s legal bills, and gave an interview where he raised concerns about Trump’s candidacy.

"When I have people come up to me who voted for Reagan in '76 and have been conservative their whole life say that they don't want to vote for Trump again, that's a problem," DeSantis told Deace.

How DeSantis continues to navigate a GOP political landscape dominated by Trump could be a big factor in his future presidential prospects.

Many observers felt he wasn’t tough enough on Trump during the campaign and didn’t give voters a strong enough reason to break with the former president. Yet he likely would need strong support from MAGA voters for any future campaign.

As for the likability factor, a video DeSantis put out this week of his son making predictions about who will advance in the NFL playoffs was praised as one of his more relatable social media offerings.

Tim Miller, who served as communications director for Jeb Bush’s presidential campaign, commented on the video by asking, “Why did Ron DeSantis send his two best social media posts of the campaign the week after he dropped out?”

DeSantis never figured out how to package his conservative governing record, which many Republicans admire, with a campaign style that voters could relate to, Luntz said.

Before running again, Luntz said DeSantis needs to “look in the mirror” and decide “whether he’s suited for the campaign style of today.”

“He may not be,” he added. “But I’m just emphasizing again and again: His record deserved a second look, a third look, a fourth look. His record was remarkable. His campaign was not.”

This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: Ron DeSantis running for president in 2028? Speculation ramps up already