With DeSantis away, Florida lawmakers set session agenda, at least for now

TALLAHASSEE – As Gov. Ron DeSantis has been campaigning in Iowa, the Republican-controlled Florida Legislature is plowing through a contentious agenda largely without him.

But Republicans, Democrats and political analysts all predict that the governor will again be a key driver of the agenda for the legislative session set to begin on Jan. 9 even if his presidential ambitions falter or fail.

GOP leaders have already moved forward on bills that would expand the state’s health care workforce, deregulate public schools, weaken decades of child labor protections, eliminate local minimum wage laws, and prohibit government contractors from letting their workers use gender-identifying pronouns or conduct LGBTQ sensitivity training.

A week after the session starts, Iowa Republicans will vote for the Republican nominee for president. A week later, New Hampshire Republicans get to choose their nominee.

By then, the die might have been cast on DeSantis’ hopes for the White House next year.

Recent polls show him in a distant second place with former President Donald Trump 36 points ahead in Iowa and slipping in New Hampshire.

“As of this moment the chances of losing are really sound,” said Aubrey Jewett, a political science professor at the University of Central Florida, of DeSantis.

The governor’s absence from the pre-session hearings is noticeable, Jewett said, “especially compared to the last couple of years when he was direct and very early in letting the Legislature know what he wanted.”

In years past, DeSantis didn’t wait until the start of the legislative session to lay out his agenda.

“It seems different,” Jewett said. “It would be easy to explain that he’s running for president … distracted, spending time and energy outside the state based on what he’s accomplished so far.”

Even so, Sarasota Sen. Joe Gruters, a former chair of the Republican Party of Florida and loyal Trump supporter, said he expects DeSantis to wield as much sway with the Legislature as he always had.

“The governor is as strong as ever with the Legislature, so what’s happening nationally will have no impact here,” Gruters said. “He’s done a good job as governor and has the power of the veto pen. That combination will continue to help us … in the process and our mutual cooperation will continue to be as strong as it has ever been.

More pushback from GOP?

House Democratic Leader Fentrice Driskell of Tampa said she was unsure if winning or losing would change the governor’s outlook. But he could face more pushback from members of his party, she said.

”It may embolden the Florida GOP to not be so lockstep with him if he loses,” she said. “Losing will take a lot of wind out of his sail.”

While DeSantis appears to be running the state via remote control with long-distance calls to his chief of staff and budget director, even conducting the latest Cabinet meeting via teleconference, DeSantis has telegraphed at least some of his priorities with budget recommendations he unveiled on Dec. 7.

The $114.4 billion plan is $4.6 billion less than the current budget but increases the state reserves by $3 billion. It cuts 1,000 state jobs, most of which are vacant.

His recommendations call for $200 million more for raises for public school teachers and $45 million in bonuses for completing a civics education certificate DeSantis is pushing. They include more funding for Everglades restoration and other water improvements and $409 million in property insurance relief for homeowners.

It also includes $57 million more for the Florida State Guard DeSantis resurrected last year as well as millions more for ongoing immigrant interdiction efforts.

And despite a revolving door between the governor’s office and the campaign team, DeSantis relied more on staffers to brief the Legislature about the budget than previously, Jewett noted.

“I suspect he will eventually have a set of priorities, and then we’ll see a resurgence in legislative leaders to stand up and push their priorities,” Jewett said.

Another factor to consider is how much DeSantis’ popularity has waned since a year ago after DeSantis won reelection by trouncing Democrat Charlie Crist by nearly a 20-point margin. After that win, he dictated a list of things he wanted the Legislature to accomplish and pretty much got them all.

A drop in popularity

But since he officially announced his candidacy for president, the governor’s popularity has fallen. More than one poll shows Trump handily beating him in the Florida primary in March.

He’s now underwater for his performance as governor with 45% approval from state voters, according to a poll conducted by Florida Watch and Progress Florida.

The same poll showed 51% are not happy with the state’s direction under DeSantis, with voters expressing dissatisfaction with how he has handled the housing crisis, soaring property insurance rates, the economy and public safety.

“Ahead of this year’s legislative session, it certainly appears that working families and seniors in Florida are dissatisfied with the perceived lack of leadership being provided by the Governor during his campaign for president,” Florida Watch Executive Director Josh Weierbac said.

For his part, Jewett said he wasn’t sure how the session might play out.

“I’m not saying it’ll be a busy session, but they’ll do their job,” Jewett said. “One part of me thinks they’ve done so much to push conservative policies in the state. Then again, they could always find a way to push conservative policies even more.

“If the governor loses the primaries, he won’t go away, he’d continue to be a force before the Legislature,” Jewett said.

In past sessions, the Legislature provided DeSantis with a platform to run as a candidate more conservative than Trump.

Lawmakers have backed his battle with Disney for opposing his so-called “Don’t Say Gay” bill, his overhaul of New College and forcing universities to dismantle diversity programs and restricting how Black history is taught in public schools and universities. They also agreed to prohibit the state from doing business with banks that have “woke” investment policies.

DeSantis could also continue his well-known inclination to punish political enemies through the power of the line-item veto.

Democrats brace for more

Based on the legislation already advancing, including several committee bills, there is going to be a lot to do this session, said state Rep. Anna Eskamani, D-Orlando.

Regulatory reforms such as Sen. Corey Simon’s Learn Local bills raise questions about the future of public education, Eskamani said.

What Simons calls a deregulation bill instead places further restrictions on education, she said, even as it cuts red tape on training and financing.

Other measures don’t go far enough, she said, like the governor’s proposal to provide up to a 6% break on property insurance premiums.

“That is a drop in the bucket when homeowners have experienced two to three times what they used to pay,” Eskamani said. “There is not a lot of appetite from Republicans to deal with insurance this coming session.”

She is also concerned that he is still funding anti-immigrant flights and the removal of 1,000 state jobs.

Eskamani criticized proposed changes to labor laws allowing 16- and 17-year-olds to work unlimited hours even on school nights, preempting cities and counties from imposing stricter regulations or setting wage laws, and allowing minors to work as roofers. They are supported by the hotel, restaurant and construction industries, she noted.

“The GOP has to bend the knee to their corporate bosses and donors,” Eskamani said. “Culture wars can’t meet the demands of corporate donors.”

Eskamani also anticipated more bills trying to crack down on immigration, following up on a recent Supreme Court grand jury report.

“The opportunity for really extreme legislation between now and the start of session is still open,” she said.

She also predicts Republicans will file another election bill that will “make it harder for Floridians to vote, and more preemption bills taking away the rights of local governments to do what is best for their communities.”

Driskell lamented the past two months of committee hearings as time poorly spent.

“We could have used these committee weeks tackling all the problems Florida families are facing,” Driskell said. “We could have seriously addressed the property insurance crisis, but the GOP has refused to do enough to achieve meaningful reform. We could have addressed housing affordability.”

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