DeSantis and Haley both have high-profile endorsements from governors. Does it matter?

Nikki Haley’s campaign got a big break Tuesday night, earning an endorsement from New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu. Only weeks earlier, Iowa Gov. Kim Reynolds — another Trump-wary Republican in an early-voting state — threw her weight behind Ron DeSantis.

Both are victories for the respective campaigns, as Republican candidates had been pining for Sununu’s and Reynolds’ endorsements for months. Haley took a victory lap Tuesday, appearing by Sununu’s side in a New Hampshire town hall and making a joint appearance Wednesday morning on Fox News.

“This is a race between two people: Nikki Haley and Donald Trump,” Sununu told reporters Tuesday. “That’s it. Nikki has spent the time on the ground here, she has earned people’s trust, and that’s going to be the real decider.

Related

• Trump inches ahead in 2024 race as Biden approval reaches new low, WSJ poll shows

• 3 major takeaways from our national poll of Republican voters

When DeSantis secured Reynolds’ endorsement last month, he celebrated it as a major victory, too. But now, in the shadow of Haley’s big win, DeSantis is less bullish about the real effect these endorsements have.

During a CNN town hall in Des Moines Tuesday night, DeSantis downplayed the news. “Chris (Sununu) is a good guy,” DeSantis said. “He’s done a good job. And I’m going to continue to say he’s good. He’s a really good campaigner.”

“But here’s the problem,” he continued. “Even a campaigner as good as Chris is not going to be able to paper over Nikki (Haley) being an establishment candidate.”

It’s a different tone than DeSantis sang after securing Reynolds’ endorsement last month, which he called a “huge get.” But the dialed-back DeSantis may be the more accurate one,

Both Sununu and Reynolds are popular in their respective states. In New Hampshire, a state that has voted for the Democrat in every presidential election since 2004, Sununu’s approval rating is over 60%, and over 90% among Republicans. In Iowa, nearly 80% of Republicans who plan to vote in the upcoming caucuses view Reynolds favorably.

But there’s a big drop-off between those who like Reynolds and those who say her endorsement makes them more likely to vote for DeSantis. According to a Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll, only 31% of voters are more likely to back DeSantis now, and the majority — 54% — said the endorsement makes no difference.

It’s too recent for polling to reflect a change in New Hampshire, but Sununu is clear-eyed about the effect of his endorsement. “I’m never a big believer that endorsements matter as much as the press think they do,” he told Fox News last month.

That could be true for a number of reasons. First, in this cycle, former President Donald Trump has a huge lead in national polls, and in both Iowa and New Hampshire, he leads by over 20 percentage points. Catching up to Trump will require a massive bump for either candidate — more than a single endorsement could realistically deliver alone. And in order to siphon votes from Trump, Haley and DeSantis will likely need to speak to those who support Trump — many of whom view Sununu and Reynolds unfavorably.

“If virtually all the GOP governors and senators were to say they would not support Trump, even in the general, I don’t think his poll numbers would be harmed, at all. They might even get better,” Sen. Mitt Romney told Politico last week. “I think the MAGA base dislikes our elected elites as much or more than they dislike Democrats.”