DeSantis’ new map could clinch this House seat for Florida Republicans

Seminole County, a fast-growing bedroom community outside of Orlando, will be pivotal to the outcome of the race for Florida’s 7th House district, an open seat that Republicans are hoping to claim for the first time since 2016 after redistricting drew the map in their favor.

A Republican stronghold for decades, Seminole has been voting for Democratic presidential candidates in recent elections as it becomes more diverse.

During the 2020 election, the 7th District voted for Joe Biden over Donald Trump 55 percent to 43 percent. But the 7th now includes much of southeastern Volusia, a staunchly Republican county. Under this map, drawn by Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis, Trump would have beaten Biden 52 percent to 47 percent in 2020.

Whether Democrats can keep the seat will depend on turnout from Seminole.

They’re hoping the changing demographics will help them. The county’s Hispanic population jumped 47 percent from 2010 to 2020, and Hispanic residents now make up about 23 percent of the population.

Democrats are also counting on votes from the many establishment Republicans and unaffiliated voters in the county who voted for Biden in the last election. Although Seminole voted for Trump in 2016, he won only by 1.6 points, whereas Biden won by 3 points in 2020.

Multiple candidates are running in the Republican and Democratic primaries for the 7th District seat. Al Krulick, one of the Democratic candidates, said he thinks his party has a chance at taking the seat if the Republican candidate is too far right. “I think the [Republican] party has overreached,” he said.

Rusty Roberts, who is running in the GOP primary, said Republicans in the 7th are disappointed with the current leadership out of the White House and predicted DeSantis would provide a lift to the eventual GOP nominee. “Gov. DeSantis is very popular in District 7,” he told POLITICO.

— Chelsea Long