DeSantis' hard right primary strategy could undercut electability argument

A few days after Donald Trump was indicted for allegedly mishandling classified documents, Gov. Ron DeSantis went on the radio and criticized the former president.

Trump faces 37 felony charges in the documents case, and another 34 felony charges in a separate case involving alleged hush money payments to an adult film star.

DeSantis' criticism didn't focus on Trump's latest indictment, though, which he described in the radio interview as the result of "extraordinary" prosecutorial zeal. Instead, when the governor decided to jab at Trump it was to imply that his three U.S. Supreme court appointees aren’t conservative enough.

DeSantis told radio host Hugh Hewitt Monday that Trump’s court picks aren’t “at the same level” as Justices Clarence Thomas and Samuel Alito, who many view as the court’s most conservative justices.

DeSantis promised to appoint judges in the mold of Thomas and Alito if he becomes president.

After months of avoiding direct confrontation with Trump, DeSantis has become more aggressive as an official candidate and regularly draws contrasts between the two leading GOP presidential contenders.

Yet so far those shots have focused almost entirely on Trump’s policies, not his considerable personal baggage and legal issues. It’s a stance DeSantis has maintained as Trump’s legal jeopardy continues to grow.

Focusing on policy differences is viewed by some DeSantis allies as the best way for the governor to differentiate himself from Trump, who appears largely to be getting a pass on his legal issues from the GOP base thanks to his insistence that he is being persecuted by the left.

A CBS News poll released shortly after Trump’s latest indictment found that 76% of GOP voters are more concerned about the case being politically motivated, while just 12% cited the national security risk.

With GOP voters seemingly in no mood for an ethical argument against Trump, DeSantis is trying to paint him as too liberal, a strategy that some view as his best hope in a primary, even if it has failed before and could undercut another key argument DeSantis makes against the former president.

Risks of hard right strategy

DeSantis often says Trump can’t win the general election, but moving hard to the right could make it more difficult for DeSantis to win over independent voters and weaken his electability argument.

“I think for DeSantis the key question is going to be how does he outflank Trump to the right to show that he’s Trumpier than Trump is but then convince independents in the general election that I’m not this person I’ve basically been for the last couple months,” said Chris Jackson, senior vice president of U.S. public affairs for polling company Ipsos. “It’s a problematic strategy because what Trump has shown is you can lock down the Republican Party but still lose the general election and still lose it by a pretty significant margin.”

Trying to outflank Trump on the right also could make DeSantis less appealing to some GOP primary voters.

DeSantis’ currently is winning 26% of self-described moderate GOP voters, compared to 23% of conservative voters, according to a CBS poll.

In trying to win over conservatives, DeSantis risks losing some of his moderate GOP support.

Much of the GOP is deeply conservative, though, and has become more so in the Trump era as the former president has worked to purge anyone viewed as too much of a moderate or RINO – Republican in Name Only.

DeSantis is betting that lining up enough votes to win the primary means winning over staunchly conservative voters, including many currently leaning toward Trump, a leader who energized the far right and continues to enjoy strong support from some of the most conservative elements of the GOP.

DeSantis and Trump have traded jabs on a wide array of policy issues during the first few weeks of their primary matchup.

DeSantis accused Trump of supporting "basically a jailbreak bill" by signing the First Step Act, criminal justice reform legislation that became law in 2018.

The governor also labeled Trump as pro “amnesty” for backing legislation that would have provided legal status for so-called “dreamers” – undocumented immigrations who came to the U.S. as children.

On abortion, DeSantis fired back when Trump implied Florida’s new ban on abortions after six weeks of pregnancy was “too harsh.” He also criticized Trump’s past comments supporting so-called "red flag" gun laws.

The two candidates are debating who had a better record on COVID-19, with DeSantis criticizing Trump for not firing Dr. Anthony Fauci, who led the federal government’s pandemic response.

They’ve even tussled over using the term “woke,” a DeSantis favorite for describing what he views as liberal excesses. Trump suggested the word is overused and most people don’t know what it means.

DeSantis has accused Trump of moving to the left, and there is speculation that the former president – who currently has a big lead in national primary polls – could be trying to position himself more in the middle for the general election.

Whether Trump is truly vulnerable on his conservative credentials is a big question, though.

Trump vulnerable?

Many Republicans claimed Trump wasn’t a true conservative in 2015 and 2016 when he first ran for president. Back then, Trump challengers such as U.S. Sen. Ted Cruz staked out more conservative positions and tried to appeal to those in the party who believed in fidelity to certain conservative principles.

Cruz won the Iowa caucus and had strong showings in other early states, but ultimately couldn’t gather enough support.

Now DeSantis is making a similar play, hoping that a win in Iowa – which tends to reward the most conservative candidate, particularly religious conservatives – will propel him. His first public event as a presidential candidate was at an Evangelical church in Iowa.

Jeff Roe, the GOP consultant who led Cruz's 2016 campaign, is now advising the political action committee backing DeSantis. Roe told Axios recently that DeSantis is well positioned to win over hard-right voters because "these people know that DeSantis is a culture warrior for this time."

Timothy Hagle, a political science professor at the University of Iowa, noted that DeSantis’ policies line up well with political trends in that state, which passed a ban on abortions after six weeks of pregnancy in 2018 and has trended strongly conservative in recent years.

“A lot of the policies that DeSantis was advocating and managed to get in place in Florida were things that were happening in Iowa here too under Gov. Kim Reynolds, like the culture war stuff… in that sense Iowa would seem to be a good fit” for DeSantis, Hagle said.

Yet DeSantis has strong competition for the evangelical vote in Iowa. Candidates such as former Vice President Mike Pence and U.S. Sen. Tim Scott also are committed social conservatives and are expected to aggressively contend for these voters.

Then there’s Trump, who counts evangelical voters as a key base of support and delivered a historic victory for them when his Supreme Court picks overturned Roe v. Wade, the decision that protected abortion rights.

Trump’s campaign blasted out an email Monday accusing DeSantis of attacking “SCOTUS Justices That Overturned Roe v Wade” and noting his appointees to the court were “were instrumental in the… historic pro-life victory.” The email also cited DeSantis' past support for the judicial appointments.

Trump has been lauded for his Supreme Court picks by conservatives, and some on the right found DeSantis' criticism of them odd. The National Review, which generally has supported DeSantis, wrote that the governor is "picking some strange battles" as he contorts himself to try and prove he's more conservative than Trump.

"Is this what happens when a challenger like DeSantis decides he can only attack Trump from the right, and believes that Trump’s erratic decision-making and general lunacy are off-limits?" wrote The National Review's Jim Geraghty.

Hard right embraces Trump

DeSantis faces a tough task in trying to undermine Trump’s hardline conservative image. The former president has been embraced by the most far right elements of the GOP, not just for his policies but for his aggressive approach.

U.S. Rep. Greg Steube said Trump made the GOP more conservative and “is one of the most conservative presidents we’ve ever had.”

Steube, a Florida Republican who endorsed Trump, accused DeSantis of copying Trump’s policies “because he simply does not have any original ideas of his own.”

“Trump delivered monumental wins for the conservative movement while in the White House,” Steube said. “Conservatives know he’ll do it again.”

DeSantis’ supporters see him as a more reliable conservative than Trump.

DeSantis' conservative record

A founding member of the ultra conservative Freedom Caucus in the U.S. House, DeSantis challenged Adam Putnam – a favorite of Florida’s GOP establishment – from the right in the 2018 primary for governor, emphasizing issues such as immigration.

That campaign showed the perils of going too hard right, though, with DeSantis barely winning the general election by the closest margin of any governor’s race in Florida history.

After such a narrow victory, DeSantis sought to broaden his appeal by appointing a Democrat to a top position in his administration, legalizing medical marijuana in smokeable form and pushing for environmental protections.

At the same time, he largely ignored hot button issues such as abortion and guns early in his first term.

The pandemic brought an end to those bipartisan overtures as DeSantis clashed with the left on COVID-19 policy. That partisan tension only increased as DeSantis – who increasingly was getting presidential buzz – ramped up his culture war campaigns.

DeSantis ended his first term with a tsunami of conservative policies beyond anything Florida has ever witnessed.

Ron DeSantis’ Florida power play: What's fueling his presidential run: Who's benefited, who's targeted

The deluge of right wing policymaking led many to argue that DeSantis was positioning himself for a GOP presidential primary, but Florida state Rep. Tommy Gregory doesn’t think that’s the case.

“I think we would have done all of these same bills regardless of whether or not he was running because I think he’s a principled, honest courageous leader,” said Gregory, who has endorsed DeSantis.

Gregory argued that DeSantis is the most “principled” conservative in the race and because of that “I think he’s just going to gain momentum as we move through this primary season.”

Yet even if DeSantis is successful in the primary, he may emerge as a badly damaged general election candidate.

The DeSantis campaign is betting that many independent general election voters will overlook any primary baggage the governor has when confronted with a choice between the youthful GOP candidate and an elderly Biden, but that’s a big question.

“You have to win the primary, so I don’t know what other choice DeSantis has, but I don’t think he necessarily has a path that is clear to the White House with this strategy,” Jackson said.

This article originally appeared on Sarasota Herald-Tribune: Ron DeSantis hits Donald Trump on abortion, immigration, crime