Despite Geert Wilders’ win, the Netherlands is still hard no on Nexit
The Netherlands is not on course to leave the European Union, despite Geert Wilders’ landslide victory in the Dutch elections on Wednesday.
Mr Wilders is a veteran eurosceptic and put a binding Nexit referendum in his Freedom Party manifesto before recording a shock first win for the hard-Right in a general election in the Netherlands.
Scenting a chance of taking part in government for the first time in a political career stretching back to 1998, Mr Wilders put anti-Islamic policies such as banning mosques and the Koran in “the fridge” before the vote.
He was rewarded for his more moderate tone with victory, as I explain here, in a campaign dominated by migration, the cost of living and a housing crisis.
Europe hardly featured in what was a close three-way race with the conservative VVD and GroenLinks-PvdA, an alliance of Left-wing and green parties led by Frans Timmermans.
Mr Timmermans quit his European Commission role as climate change boss to run in the elections, and came second to Mr Wilders’ 37 seats with 25 MPs.
But even he barely mentioned Brussels, conscious of the support for other eurosceptic parties in the highly fragmented world of Dutch politics.
Instead he waged a “Project Fear” style campaign warning Leftist voters he was their only chance to prevent a Right-wing coalition.
It backfired, with voters choosing Mr Wilders to ensure the next government was conservative.
Coalition deal-breaker
Mr Wilders is likely to struggle to form a coalition with more establishment parties after decades of inflammatory speech that means he is accompanied everywhere by bodyguards.
There are potential allies such as the eurosceptic BBB, the Dutch farmers’ party, and in particular the New Social Contract (NSC), which will have a kingmaker role, thanks to its 20 seats.
He could form an alliance with VVD leader Dilan Yesilgöz, who is against Nexit. She has said she would not enter into a coalition with the PVV if Mr Wilders was prime minister but may be tempted if he agrees to a less prominent role.
Neither the NSC or the BBB, conscious of EU agricultural subsidies, back Nexit but do want stricter controls on immigration and are against sending more money or powers to Brussels.
Mr Wilders is likely to have to agree to drop the Nexit referendum as part of a coalition agreement, if he can convince other parties to join him.
The fact is this is a vote he would be almost certain to lose. Dutch euroscepticism is in fine fettle but stops short of quitting the EU.
What is seen as the economic folly of Brexit has had an effect. In a January survey, support for Nexit fell 8.4 percentage points to 13 per cent, compared to 2016-2017.
“We are never going to do that,” laughed one pensioner I spoke to about the elections on the streets of The Hague.
The Netherlands, unlike the UK, is surrounded by land borders with EU members, has the euro as its currency and is even more closely integrated with Belgium and Luxembourg.
Again, unlike Britain, it was occupied in the Second World War by Germany, an experience made highly unlikely to happen again by the EU’s existence.
Nexit is a non-starter, but Mr Wilders’ “monster victory” has still shaken Europe.
It is a boost for eurosceptic leaders across the bloc ahead of next year’s European Parliament elections, which are set to be a battle between nationalist and pro-EU forces.
I think the divisive populist will fail to form a government after lengthy negotiations, and so will Mr Timmermans.
That means the VVD’s Ms Yesilgöz, who came a close third to Mr Timmermans with 24 seats, will have a chance of leading an alliance of Right-wing parties.
But the scale of Mr Wilders’ victory cannot be ignored.
Even if Ms Yesilgöz ultimately excludes Mr Wilders from power, his influence will drag her government further to the Right and more firmly against sacrificing more national powers to Brussels overreach.
