Despite red zone woes, Packers’ patchwork defense holding ship afloat
Every time an opposing team has reached the end zone this season against the Packers, they’ve scored. And they haven’t just scored field goals. It’s been a touchdown. Every. Single. Time.
The effort, if you can call it that, is one of those statistical oddities that would be impressive if it weren’t so true. Even so, this Packers defense under coordinator Joe Barry is a bit of a paradox. They’ve been impotent when it matters most (read: bend and then break defense), yet, this defense, this injury-plagued, duct-taped, patchwork defense, has been…almost impressive?
The Packers enter Week 7 with a 5-1 record playing just OK football. They’ve been managing without Za’Darius Smith and Jaire Alexander, two of their three most impactful players. They’ve failed to force a single field goal in the red zone. They’ve also struggled to convert pressures into sacks.
In other words, it hasn’t been the prettiest brand of defense you’ve ever seen.
But has it been that ugly? Statistically, not really.
While the Packers do own the league’s worst red-zone percentage, they’re also at or near the top ten of many other statistically important categories.
Currently, the Packers rank 10th in total yards and seventh in takeaways. They’re giving up an average of 22.7 points per game, good for 13th. On Sunday, the Packers surrendered just 14 points to the Chicago Bears, which marks the third game this season the defense has held a team under 20 points. The offense of 2021 hasn’t been the offense of 2020 thus far, but it’s a fair ask of Aaron Rodgers and Co. to put up at least 20 points per game.
Even when you break down the red zone woes, the statistics look odd.
As noted, the Packers are currently surrendering touchdowns on 100 percent of red-zone trips. The Lions – yes, the winless Lions with a decimated secondary – are at 86.7 percent. The Raiders are next at 85.7 percent. For reference, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, ranked 15th in the league, are giving up touchdowns on 65 percent of red-zone trips.
Last season, the Chiefs finished the season allowing opponents to score touchdowns 76.6 percent of the time. Last year, the Packers finished at 57.7 percent, the year before that 50.0 percent.
The point is that it just seems statistically unlikely this trend will continue at its current pace for much longer. The Packers will begin to get some stops. Part of that will need to come from Barry himself. Currently, his defense plays too soft and passive in the red zone. Touchdowns have been too easy to come by and players are put in difficult positions to close throwing windows. Barry will need to adjust until he finds the right mix of personnel and coverage.
It’s been a week-by-week, slow progression for the defense, but that arrow indeed trending upward. With a little more health, continued success with turnovers, and a few schematic and personnel adjustments, the Packers could start to find their stride as they enter the meat of the season.
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