Despite a 'slow' hurricane season forecast, warmer waters mean danger lurks in Atlantic

Florida’s emergency managers hurtle toward the 2023 hurricane season with a budding El Niño providing some hope of a less energetic tropical Atlantic but under the gnawing specter of Category 5 Ian’s deadly September assault.

About 2,400 meteorologists, first responders, storm recovery experts and vendors gathered this week at the Governor’s Hurricane Conference in West Palm Beach to train for what’s coming and learn from the last catastrophe, or triumph.

This is the first year since 2015 that early hurricane season forecasts are predicting a near-normal to slightly below-normal number of tropical cyclones.

But as the June 1 start date approaches, the atmosphere is giving mixed messages. The tropical cyclone-thwarting El Niño is on the rise at the same time as unusually warm water in parts of the Atlantic Ocean are signaling the potential for a busier season.

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Even "normal" hurricane season can end in disaster. And many deaths.

And emergency managers stress that a slow season can still produce a killer storm. Last year ended with near-normal activity, yet an estimated 150 people died from direct or indirect impacts of Hurricane Ian, according to the National Hurricane Center’s post-Ian report.

Forty-one of the Ian-related deaths were drownings in storm surge, mostly in Lee County.

“As brutal as this year was, it’s time to heal those wounds and get ready to deal with this year’s season,” said National Hurricane Center Deputy Director Jamie Rhome, who asked people to stop focusing solely on wind speeds. “When we issue a storm surge watch or warning, it should have the same impact as a hurricane watch or warning.”

While the hurricane conference began Sunday and lasts through Friday, Wednesday’s events included keynote speakers such as Rhome, Palm Beach County Mayor Gregg Weiss and Florida Lt. Gov. Jeanette Nuñez. It also marked the opening of the Palm Beach County Convention Center’s exhibit hall, which was filled with hurricane survival and response tools, including flooding prevention and recovery tools.

"Lee County is exceptionally flat and storm surge traveled four to five miles inland," said Lee County Emergency Manager Sandra Tapfumaneyi about Hurricane Ian's impacts. "We had boats where cars should have been and cars where boats should have been."

Hurricane Ian’s devastation overshadowed the 2022 season, but the U.S. was hit by three other storms. Tropical Storm Colin made landfall in South Carolina on July 1, Category 1 Hurricane Fiona made landfall in Puerto Rico on Sept. 18, and Nicole, also a Cat 1 hurricane, made landfall near Vero Beach on Nov. 10.

Nicole was only the third November hurricane on record to make landfall in Florida. The others were 1985’s Hurricane Kate and 1935’s Yankee hurricane. Hurricane season ends Nov. 30 with the peak of the season running around mid-August to mid-October.

“A lot of people get enamored with the calendar, thinking hurricanes don’t strike after peak season,” Rhome said. “It’s another case of don’t get stuck in the conventional wisdoms.”

That includes treating a threatening storm as if it was going to behave like past storms.

So, how many hurricanes are forecast for this year's season?

Palm Beach County Emergency Manager Mary Blakeney said there is concern that people may not have evacuated Southwest Florida’s coast ahead of Hurricane Ian because they thought its surge would be similar to that of 2017’s Hurricane Irma, which caused less damage than expected.

“Don’t base one storm’s decision-making on what you went through in Frances, Jeanne, Wilma, you name the storm,” Blakeney said. “Every storm is different.”

Rhome, Blakeney and former FEMA administrator Brock Long, who also spoke Wednesday, said a concern since 2020 is the increase of new residents in Florida who may have no experience with a tropical cyclone. Brock is now executive chairman of the emergency management group Hagerty Consulting.

Blakeney said the lack of familiarity with storms and evacuations was underscored in November when Palm Beach County ordered evacuations for Hurricane Nicole. Its website was swamped with people trying to look up their evacuation zone.

“We had so many hits right when we issued the orders, that leads me to believe it was new people,” Blakeney said. “People need to know what zone they are in today.”

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Driver's license data from Jan. 1 through mid-April shows there has been a continued influx of residents to the Sunshine State.

According to the Florida Department of Highway Safety and Motor Vehicles, New York remained the state with the highest number of people turning in Empire State driver's licenses for those from Florida, with 17,881. New Jersey was second with 8,503, followed by California (7,956), Pennsylvania (7,181) and Georgia (6,940.) Illinois also ranked high with 6,586 residents handing in their driver's licenses for those with a Florida address.

In 2022, more than 583,200 people surrendered non-Florida driver’s licenses for ones from the Sunshine State.

“Florida is a place where people want to live,” Brock said. “But they are buying homes without understanding what they are buying.”

Although early forecasts have called for a near-normal to slightly below-normal hurricane season, they notoriously grapple with the so-called spring predictability barrier — a period where seasonal changes can conceal the atmosphere's intent for the six months beginning June 1.

Colorado State University issued its first forecast in early April calling for a near-average season but noted that conflicting signals mean “more uncertainty than normal.” CSU will update its forecast June 1.

AccuWeather also predicted a less active year in its initial forecast made in late March. The Weather Company forecast a near-average year.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration is scheduled to release its forecast May 25.

A normal hurricane season has 14 named storms and seven hurricanes. Of the hurricanes, three are major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.

Kimberly Miller is a veteran journalist for The Palm Beach Post, part of the USA Today Network of Florida. She covers real estate and how growth affects South Florida's environment. Subscribe to The Dirt for a weekly real estate roundup. If you have news tips, please send them to kmiller@pbpost.com. Help support our local journalism, subscribe today. 

This article originally appeared on Palm Beach Post: 2023 hurricane season begins June 1 as el nino wakes up