Bloomberg
(Bloomberg) -- One of the hottest trades in emerging market debt hasn’t paid a penny of interest in five years.Prices on the defaulted bonds issued by Samarco Mineracao SA, the Brazilian iron ore mining venture jointly owned by Vale SA and BHP Group Ltd., have skyrocketed to 83 cents on the dollar from just 34 cents at the onset of the Covid-19 pandemic, handing creditors a return of 144%.There are a handful of factors driving the rally: Iron ore prices are surging; Samarco officials have begun prepping a debt restructuring plan; and the mine is finally producing again, albeit at a fraction of the levels it was at before a 2015 dam burst that killed 19 people and wiped out much of two villages downstream.But still, even at a time of wild froth in global financial markets, the sheer scope of the gains is somewhat perplexing. The bonds had only traded a few pennies higher in the days prior to the catastrophe. The bankers advising Samarco and its shareholders have been taken by surprise. They see the 83-cent price as being markedly higher than the amount that will be offered in the restructuring, according to people with direct knowledge of the matter who asked not to be identified.The only way the current price would make sense, they said, is if Vale and BHP were to inject fresh capital into Samarco to help pay back the debt, something they insist will not happen. The company needs to shrink its $3.8 billion debt and adjust its payment schedule to reflect its new smaller size, they said.Bankers are clearly trying to temper expectations -- but investor interest in the bonds remains high. A difficult debt restructuring negotiation may be resuming soon.“Bondholders simply won’t accept a haircut because Samarco has two healthy shareholders that they believe could inject money,” said Carlos Gribel, a managing director at Andbanc Brokerage in Miami. “To compromise they could agree to a delay on payments, for instance.”BHP, Vale, Samarco and New York-based investment bank Houlihan Lokey Inc., which is advising a group of bondholders, declined to comment.To put the defaulted bond rally in perspective, an average of emerging market materials bonds have returned about 33% since April 7 while Brazilian government notes have returned 11%, according to Bloomberg Barclays indices. Iron ore prices have jumped more than 10% this year alone.Some creditors aren’t willing to wait for an out-of-court restructuring and are pursuing their claims in court.A group of Samarco bondholders filed a lawsuit in New York in October asking the firm to fork over $2.7 billion in principal and interest on the defaulted notes. Davis Polk & Wardwell is representing the creditors in New York while Samarco is being advised by Cleary Gottlieb Steen & Hamilton LLP.Some litigants pursuing export prepayment loans have been more successful in Brazil.Judge Jeferson Maria in Belo Horizonte ruled on Feb. 8 that Samarco needs to pay a promissory note of $125 million which matured on Dec. 3 to York Global Finance BDH, LLC. The notes were used as collateral in a loan from Mizuho Bank Ltd. in 2013 that was sold to York in June 21 2018, according to court documents. The company can still file a motion to stay the enforcement proceeding.Padis Mattar Advogados and Ferro, Castro Neves, Daltro & Gomide Advogados are representing York in Brazil, while Cescon, Barrieu, Flesch & Barreto Advogados is representing Samarco.Some creditors of another $1.6 billion of export prepayment loans and other obligations are planning to go to court in Brazil after the success on the first lawsuit, one person said. They are mostly investment funds, after banks sold most of their holdings.Ahead of a new round of restructuring talks expected on the $2.2 billion of bonds maturing in 2022 and 2024, a group of creditors is being advised by Houlihan Lokey. Samarco is getting advice from JPMorgan Chase & Co., Vale is working with Moelis & Co. and BHP with Rothschild & Co.Depending on how the lawsuits play out, Samarco may be forced to file for bankruptcy protection against creditors in Brazil, three of the people said, while adding that this isn’t the most probable outcome for now. Samarco is prepared to go to court if its cash gets seized by creditors or if operations are harmed in any way by lawsuits, the people said.On Feb. 4, Vale announced a 37.7 billion reais ($7.03 billion) settlement agreement with Brazilian authorities for a separate dam collapse that killed 270 people in 2019.“The timing for Samarco to restructure all its liabilities is very good right now, since the company is back producing, the real is weak and prices of iron ore and pellets had an amazing rally,” said Rafael Fritsch, chief investment officer for distressed-asset funds at Sao Paulo-based Canvas Capital SA, which holds Samarco debt.“The firm’s two shareholders have resolved some of their legal issues and have clear business plans, and that adds to the optimism,” Fritsch said.For more articles like this, please visit us at bloomberg.comSubscribe now to stay ahead with the most trusted business news source.©2021 Bloomberg L.P.