If you buy and hold a stock for many years, you'd hope to be making a profit. Furthermore, you'd generally like to see the share price rise faster than the market Unfortunately for shareholders, while the Dexus (ASX:DXS) share price is up 20% in the last five years, that's less than the market return. Looking at the last year alone, the stock is up 16%.
While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One flawed but reasonable way to assess how sentiment around a company has changed is to compare the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price.
Dexus' earnings per share are down 20% per year, despite strong share price performance over five years.
Since the EPS are down strongly, it seems highly unlikely market participants are looking at EPS to value the company. Given that EPS is down, but the share price is up, it seems clear the market is focussed on other aspects of the business, at the moment.
In fact, the dividend has increased over time, which is a positive. Maybe dividend investors have helped support the share price.
The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).
We like that insiders have been buying shares in the last twelve months. Even so, future earnings will be far more important to whether current shareholders make money. So it makes a lot of sense to check out what analysts think Dexus will earn in the future (free profit forecasts).
What About Dividends?
It is important to consider the total shareholder return, as well as the share price return, for any given stock. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, Dexus' TSR for the last 5 years was 52%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!
A Different Perspective
Dexus shareholders are up 22% for the year (even including dividends). But that return falls short of the market. The silver lining is that the gain was actually better than the average annual return of 9% per year over five year. This suggests the company might be improving over time. It's always interesting to track share price performance over the longer term. But to understand Dexus better, we need to consider many other factors. To that end, you should be aware of the 2 warning signs we've spotted with Dexus .
Dexus is not the only stock that insiders are buying. For those who like to find winning investments this free list of growing companies with recent insider purchasing, could be just the ticket.
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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