DFS Value Finder: Conference Championships

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Kyle Dvorchak
·4 min read
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This is a simple, straightforward piece. At the end of the week, I'll look at the best values at each position on each site using our DFS Projections. With just two games left on the final main slate of the season, I'll be cutting the number of values at each position to two. Saying there are three viable values at quarterback when there are four starting passers on the slate seems...wrong. I'll list the prices of each player on the sites where he is the best value throughout the article.

Josh Allen vs. Chiefs -- FanDuel: $8,500, DraftKings: $6,900

Allen has been great all season but win or lose, this sets up to be one of his best fantasy games of the year. He utterly dominates in shootouts. In games that cross 50 points scored, Allen has averaged 325.8 passing yards and 2.8 touchdowns. Allen's ceiling greatly out-paces his price this week.

Patrick Mahomes vs. Bills -- Yahoo: $38

Yahoo priced Mahomes as the No. 2 passer this week. Anytime a DFS provider gives you Mahomes at a discount, you take it. The Chiefs have a 28.5-point implied team total and their matchup with the Bills has a 54-point total. Both of those marks lead the slate. Mahomes averaged 316 passing yards per game in the regular season and now plays in an incredible game environment.

Clyde Edwards-Helaire vs. Bills -- FanDuel: $6,200, Yahoo, $20

CEH has logged limited practices all week and looks ready to suit up after missing every Chiefs game since Week 15. Before that, he was beginning to separate himself as the lead-back in Kansas City once again. In Edward-Helaire’s previous three games, he had out-carried Le’Veon Bell 41-10. As the primary runner on an elite offense that is the favorite in their game, CEH is an easy selection this week.

Devin Singletary vs. Chiefs -- DraftKings: $4,500

Although Singletary’s Divisional Round performance left something to be desired (fantasy points, specifically), there were positive indicators in his performance. He saw 77.7 percent of the Bills’ running back carries and all of the team’s running back targets. His backup, T.J. Yeldon, logged two carries on the final drive and did not see a touch when the Ravens were within one score of the Bills.

John Brown vs. Chiefs -- Yahoo: $14, DraftKings: $4,300

Much of this article will center around the shootout in Kansas City and our first wide receiver is no exception. Across two playoff games, Brown has earned a 20.8 percent target share. His average depth of target in the regular season was 11.8 yards which led Buffalo’s three starting receivers. Brown should be a mainstay of any Chiefs or Bills stack.

Chris Godwin vs. Packers -- FanDuel: $6,800

With Antonio Brown out, Godwin becomes an extremely intriguing option. Godwin leads the Bucs in targets during the playoffs (19) and his air yards share is up to 25 percent after languishing below 20 percent in the second half of the regular season. Mike Evans’ target share has dropped in the playoffs. He entered the postseason dealing with a knee injury and now Brown is out. Godwin is set up to be his team’s WR1 this week and his price doesn't reflect that.

Travis Kelce vs. Bills -- Yahoo: $34, DraftKings: $8,000

This shouldn’t need to be said but if you can afford to play Kelce, you should be playing Kelce. Despite his inflated price, Kelce remains the best play at tight end by a wide margin. He set the record for receiving yards by a tight end in a season this year and his reception total was top-five all-time as well. If we’re playing Mahomes in this awesome shootout, there’s no reason not to double down Kelce.

Robert Tonyan vs. Buccaneers -- FanDuel: $5,700

If you can’t afford to play Kelce, Tonyan is the next best option. This is especially true on FanDuel, where touchdowns are valued more than achieving 100 yards or catching passes. Tonyan led all tight ends in receiving touchdowns this year and his team’s implied total is approaching four touchdowns. If he scores multiple times, he'll have a good chance of overtaking Kelce as the top-scoring tight end of the weekend.