Did Business Growth Power Golden Deeps's (ASX:GED) Share Price Gain of 300%?

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The worst result, after buying shares in a company (assuming no leverage), would be if you lose all the money you put in. But if you buy shares in a really great company, you can more than double your money. For example, the Golden Deeps Limited (ASX:GED) share price has soared 300% in the last three years. How nice for those who held the stock! It's also up 19% in about a month.

View our latest analysis for Golden Deeps

Golden Deeps hasn't yet reported any revenue yet, so it's as much a business idea as an actual business. So it seems shareholders are too busy dreaming about the progress to come than dwelling on the current (lack of) revenue. For example, investors may be hoping that Golden Deeps finds some valuable resources, before it runs out of money.

As a general rule, if a company doesn't have much revenue, and it loses money, then it is a high risk investment. There is almost always a chance they will need to raise more capital, and their progress - and share price - will dictate how dilutive that is to current holders. While some such companies do very well over the long term, others become hyped up by promoters before eventually falling back down to earth, and going bankrupt (or being recapitalized). Of course, if you time it right, high risk investments like this can really pay off, as Golden Deeps investors might know.

Our data indicates that Golden Deeps had AU$1,172,995 more in total liabilities than it had cash, when it last reported in December 2018. That makes it extremely high risk, in our view. So the fact that the stock is up 59% per year, over 3 years shows that high risks can lead to high rewards, sometimes. It's clear more than a few people believe in the potential. You can see in the image below, how Golden Deeps's cash levels have changed over time (click to see the values).

ASX:GED Historical Debt, June 26th 2019
ASX:GED Historical Debt, June 26th 2019

In reality it's hard to have much certainty when valuing a business that has neither revenue or profit. Given that situation, many of the best investors like to check if insiders have been buying shares. It's usually a positive if they have, as it may indicate they see value in the stock. You can click here to see if there are insiders buying.

A Different Perspective

Golden Deeps shareholders are down 16% for the year, but the market itself is up 12%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. Longer term investors wouldn't be so upset, since they would have made 24%, each year, over five years. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. Most investors take the time to check the data on insider transactions. You can click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling.

Of course Golden Deeps may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.

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