Did Changing Sentiment Drive A2B Australia's (ASX:A2B) Share Price Down A Worrying 64%?

In this article:

In order to justify the effort of selecting individual stocks, it's worth striving to beat the returns from a market index fund. But every investor is virtually certain to have both over-performing and under-performing stocks. So we wouldn't blame long term A2B Australia Limited (ASX:A2B) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 64% over a half decade. And some of the more recent buyers are probably worried, too, with the stock falling 28% in the last year.

See our latest analysis for A2B Australia

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During five years of share price growth, A2B Australia moved from a loss to profitability. Most would consider that to be a good thing, so it's counter-intuitive to see the share price declining. Other metrics might give us a better handle on how its value is changing over time.

We note that the dividend has fallen in the last five years, so that may have contributed to the share price decline. The revenue decline of around 0.8% would not have helped the stock price. So it seems weak revenue and dividend trends may have influenced the share price.

The company's revenue and earnings (over time) are depicted in the image below (click to see the exact numbers).

ASX:A2B Income Statement, December 3rd 2019
ASX:A2B Income Statement, December 3rd 2019

We know that A2B Australia has improved its bottom line lately, but what does the future have in store? This free report showing analyst forecasts should help you form a view on A2B Australia

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. Arguably, the TSR gives a more comprehensive picture of the return generated by a stock. As it happens, A2B Australia's TSR for the last 5 years was -40%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Investors in A2B Australia had a tough year, with a total loss of 24% (including dividends) , against a market gain of about 25%. Even the share prices of good stocks drop sometimes, but we want to see improvements in the fundamental metrics of a business, before getting too interested. Regrettably, last year's performance caps off a bad run, with the shareholders facing a total loss of 9.7% per year over five years. We realise that Buffett has said investors should 'buy when there is blood on the streets', but we caution that investors should first be sure they are buying a high quality businesses. Before spending more time on A2B Australia it might be wise to click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling shares.

We will like A2B Australia better if we see some big insider buys. While we wait, check out this free list of growing companies with considerable, recent, insider buying.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.

Advertisement