Did Changing Sentiment Drive Safety Godown Company's (HKG:237) Share Price Down By 34%?

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Many investors define successful investing as beating the market average over the long term. But if you try your hand at stock picking, your risk returning less than the market. Unfortunately, that's been the case for longer term Safety Godown Company, Limited (HKG:237) shareholders, since the share price is down 34% in the last three years, falling well short of the market return of around 18%. There was little comfort for shareholders in the last week as the price declined a further 3.1%.

View our latest analysis for Safety Godown Company

While markets are a powerful pricing mechanism, share prices reflect investor sentiment, not just underlying business performance. One imperfect but simple way to consider how the market perception of a company has shifted is to compare the change in the earnings per share (EPS) with the share price movement.

During the three years that the share price fell, Safety Godown Company's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 52% each year. In comparison the 13% compound annual share price decline isn't as bad as the EPS drop-off. So the market may not be too worried about the EPS figure, at the moment -- or it may have previously priced some of the drop in.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

SEHK:237 Past and Future Earnings, November 29th 2019
SEHK:237 Past and Future Earnings, November 29th 2019

It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Safety Godown Company's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). Whereas the share price return only reflects the change in the share price, the TSR includes the value of dividends (assuming they were reinvested) and the benefit of any discounted capital raising or spin-off. It's fair to say that the TSR gives a more complete picture for stocks that pay a dividend. As it happens, Safety Godown Company's TSR for the last 3 years was -20%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

Investors in Safety Godown Company had a tough year, with a total loss of 2.6% (including dividends) , against a market gain of about 1.9%. However, keep in mind that even the best stocks will sometimes underperform the market over a twelve month period. On the bright side, long term shareholders have made money, with a gain of 8.4% per year over half a decade. If the fundamental data continues to indicate long term sustainable growth, the current sell-off could be an opportunity worth considering. Is Safety Godown Company cheap compared to other companies? These 3 valuation measures might help you decide.

Of course, you might find a fantastic investment by looking elsewhere. So take a peek at this free list of companies we expect will grow earnings.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on HK exchanges.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Thank you for reading.

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