Did Changing Sentiment Drive Synectics's (LON:SNX) Share Price Down By 48%?

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The main aim of stock picking is to find the market-beating stocks. But in any portfolio, there will be mixed results between individual stocks. So we wouldn't blame long term Synectics plc (LON:SNX) shareholders for doubting their decision to hold, with the stock down 48% over a half decade. Unhappily, the share price slid 2.9% in the last week.

See our latest analysis for Synectics

To paraphrase Benjamin Graham: Over the short term the market is a voting machine, but over the long term it's a weighing machine. By comparing earnings per share (EPS) and share price changes over time, we can get a feel for how investor attitudes to a company have morphed over time.

During the five years over which the share price declined, Synectics's earnings per share (EPS) dropped by 21% each year. This fall in the EPS is worse than the 12% compound annual share price fall. So investors might expect EPS to bounce back -- or they may have previously foreseen the EPS decline.

You can see how EPS has changed over time in the image below (click on the chart to see the exact values).

AIM:SNX Past and Future Earnings, April 22nd 2019
AIM:SNX Past and Future Earnings, April 22nd 2019

Dive deeper into Synectics's key metrics by checking this interactive graph of Synectics's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

When looking at investment returns, it is important to consider the difference between total shareholder return (TSR) and share price return. The TSR is a return calculation that accounts for the value of cash dividends (assuming that any dividend received was reinvested) and the calculated value of any discounted capital raisings and spin-offs. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. As it happens, Synectics's TSR for the last 5 years was -45%, which exceeds the share price return mentioned earlier. The dividends paid by the company have thusly boosted the total shareholder return.

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Synectics shareholders have received a total shareholder return of 8.8% over the last year. Of course, that includes the dividend. That certainly beats the loss of about 11% per year over the last half decade. The long term loss makes us cautious, but the short term TSR gain certainly hints at a brighter future. If you would like to research Synectics in more detail then you might want to take a look at whether insiders have been buying or selling shares in the company.

Of course Synectics may not be the best stock to buy. So you may wish to see this free collection of growth stocks.

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on GB exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.

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