Did Punxsutawney Phil tell a fib? Temperatures to hit near 80 in Asheville this week

Ryan Oehrli, Asheville Citizen Times
·4 min read
Groundhogs have a 32-day gestation period and deliver four to nine young, which are called kits or cubs.
Groundhogs have a 32-day gestation period and deliver four to nine young, which are called kits or cubs.

ASHEVILLE - Weather and climate scientists are again expressing doubts about a groundhog’s expertise following a Feb. 2 prediction that fell short.

Punxsutawney Phil, the allegedly immortal Pennsylvanian rodent who drinks from an “elixir of life” and predicts the seasons, told the world on Groundhog Day that there would be six more weeks of winter, when he apparently saw his shadow. Phil appears to have been wrong.

The National Weather Service is predicting a high of 72 degrees on Feb. 22, meteorologist Thomas Winesett said. It’s not a record high for that day – that would be 77 degrees F in 2018 – but it’s still “definitely well above normal,” Winesett said.

On Feb. 23, Asheville could see a record high temperature of 80 F, according to the National Weather Service's forecast.

If that high is reached, Asheville will surpass not just the recorded high for that day — 76 F in 1982 — but will tie with a record for all of February set in 1932, according to meteorologist Doug Outlaw.

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About 530 miles south from Phil the groundhog's home, scientists working with NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Information office in Asheville, are using more modern research methods.

“Most meteorologists don’t like Punxsutawney Phil,” said Jared Rennie, a research meteorologist with NOAA. “There’s no evidence or science to show that he’s accurate.”

A recent NCEI analysis that compared national temperatures with Groundhog Day predictions found that Phil was right only about 40% of the time over the last 10 years.

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Climate change, La Niña to thank for warm winter weather

It has been “abnormally warm” the last few months, Rennie noted.

Climate change and a La Niña for the last three years have contributed to the heat, he said.

During La Niña events, “trade winds are even stronger than usual, pushing more warm water toward Asia,” NOAA explains. “Off the west coast of the Americas, upwelling increases, bringing cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface.”

For North Carolina, that leads to warmer winters, Rennie said.

And then there’s climate change.

“Temperatures have been rising in the Southeast U.S. for the last 100-plus years,” he said.

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As the century goes on, the area can expect a considerable warming trend. Most North Carolina counties experienced a “top 10 warm January,” Rennie said.

Models suggest that January and February are “going to be warmer by the end of the century,” he said. “For our county, it looks like 10 years ago we typically experienced overnight lows in the mid-to upper-20s. By the end of the century, we’re going to start seeing them in the 30s, which is obviously a 10-degree difference.”

Winters won’t go away, he said, and “cold snaps” could have effects on agriculture. He referenced Hendersonville’s apple orchards as an example.

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In the coming days, Asheville can expect the following, according to the NWS forecast:

  • Mostly sunny and breezy weather with a high of 66 F on the afternoon of Feb. 21. At night, it will be mostly cloudy with a low of 50 F.

  • There will be decreasing clouds and a high of 75 F during the day on Feb. 22, followed by a 20% chance of showers that night and a low of 60 F.

  • It will be partly sunny, sunny and then breezy with a high of 80 F during the day on Feb. 23. At night, it will be partly cloudy and dip to a low of 49 F.

  • On Feb. 24, it will be partly sunny with a high of 60 F. That night, the low will be 42 F, accompanied by a 30% chance of showers.

  • On Feb. 25 there is a 60% chance of showers and a high of 52 F. There will be a low of 45 F.

  • On Feb. 26, a high of 67 F and a low of 48 F. There is a 30% chance of rain that morning.

Ryan Oehrli covers public safety, breaking news, courts and other beats for the Citizen Times. Comments? Questions? Tips? Send them to coehrli@citizentimes.com or 252-944-6816. Please support local, daily journalism with a subscription to the Citizen Times.

This article originally appeared on Asheville Citizen Times: Did Punxsutawney Phil lie? Temperatures to hit 70s in Asheville