In do-or-die New Hampshire primary, Nikki Haley walks on eggshells

A version of this article was first published in the On the Trail 2024 newsletter. Sign up to receive the newsletter in your inbox on Tuesday and Friday mornings here. To submit a question to next week’s Friday Mailbag, email onthetrail@deseretnews.com.

Good morning and welcome to On the Trail 2024, the Deseret News’ campaign newsletter. I’m Samuel Benson, Deseret’s national political correspondent.

3 things to know

1. Donald Trump cruised to victory in the Iowa Republican caucuses Monday, the first contest of the 2024 election. It’s worth noting that only once, in 2000, has the Iowa winner gone on to win the GOP nomination; it’s also true that Trump benefited from low turnout, as his victory captured a comparatively small proportion of the electorate — less than 60,000 of Iowa’s 700,000+ registered Republicans voted for him. Still, his Iowa victory showed his robust on-the-ground strategy worked, and his competitors may be feigning faux confidence. More here.

2. First lady Jill Biden visited Utah this week, meeting with teachers and administrators at a Salt Lake County high school. Later in the evening, at a closed-door fundraiser with donors, she warned that democracy is on the ballot in 2024. “Democracies don’t have to die at the end of a rifle,” she said. “They can die slowly, suddenly, silently, one freedom, one right at a time. One hope at a time.” Read more here.

3. The Republican primary field shrunk again after Iowa, with only two Trump challengers remaining: Nikki Haley and Ron DeSantis. Two candidates — Vivek Ramaswamy and Asa Hutchinson — dropped out this week. Ramaswamy quickly endorsed Trump. Read more here.

The Big Idea

Haley’s oh-so-careful Trump message

If Haley wants to beat Trump, New Hampshire is her last chance. After a less-than-inspiring third-place finish in Iowa, where she came in over 30 percentage points behind Trump, Haley has narrowed her focus to the Granite State, where polls show her within striking distance. Win in New Hampshire, and she could be geared up for a long, competitive primary with the former president. If she loses, the primary could be over.

On caucus night in Iowa, Haley triumphantly declared that it was now a two-way race between her and Trump. She reiterated the message during a campaign stop Thursday, saying that “she’s focused on Trump.” DeSantis, she said, “is closer to zero than he is to me” in New Hampshire. “We were focused on DeSantis in Iowa, and we’re no longer focused on him.”

But instead of unleashing a full-out offensive on Trump, Haley is walking on eggshells. Her campaign seems laser-focused on keeping her from missteps, as if she were the frontrunner and Trump was nipping at her heels. She went nearly two weeks without taking questions from voters, incensing some Iowans, before opening up a town hall to questions on Thursday morning in Hollis, New Hampshire. At her events, instead of allowing press to roam freely and interact with voters, as they have in the past, they are now corralled into a closed-off area in the back of the room, separated by portable metal barriers.

Perhaps it’s a strategy to prevent slip-ups. After months of near-blemish-free campaigning, Haley’s gaffes have provided plenty of fodder for her opponents. First, it was her Civil War comments; then, it was her lighthearted jab at Iowa voters. Now, at a juncture when she desperately needs to make her case against Trump, it’s her unwillingness to do so that has become the headline.

“You’re the only woman in this race,” CNN’s Dana Bash asked Haley on Tuesday. “How do you feel about your party’s frontrunner being held liable for sexual abuse?”

“First of all, I haven’t paid attention to his cases, and I’m not a lawyer,” Haley responded. “All I know is that he’s innocent until proven guilty, and when he’s proven guilty, and he’s sitting in a courtroom — that’s exactly what I’m talking about. You’ve got investigations on Trump and Biden.”

It was a softball question, and it could have been a simple opportunity to denounce sexual abuse. She could have done so while still offering Trump the presumption of innocence until a judge rules (though a jury already found him liable). She could have even pivoted back to her go-to critique of Trump, repeated at every campaign stop: “Rightly or wrongly, chaos follows him, and we can’t have four more years of chaos.”

But is it rightly or wrongly? A moderator tried to get at the question during a Haley town hall on CNN earlier this month: Is Trump the one who causes the chaos, or is he just the unwitting victim?

“It’s both,” Haley replied. Some of the charges against him are “political,” she said, but he’s also his “own worst enemy.”

To some New Hampshire voters, her even-handed approach to Trump — he was a good president, but we don’t need more chaos — hits home. Dennis Coffey, an attendee at Haley’s town hall in Rochester, New Hampshire, on Wednesday, said he voted for Trump in 2020 and supported the former president’s policies. “But he just goes of the rails,” Coffey said. “I don’t want the drama.”

But in New Hampshire, attacking Trump head-on could actually help Haley more than in any other early-voting state. Biden won’t appear on the primary ballot, so turnout on the Democratic side will be low; because unaffiliated voters can participate in either primary, Trump-averse independents could very well come out in support of a non-Trump Republican candidate. Until recently, their favorite was Chris Christie, and early polls suggest the next-in-line is Haley.

One of those voters is Ron Ford, another attendee at Haley’s Wednesday-evening town hall. He voted for Biden in 2020, and if it’s a Trump-Biden rematch this fall, he plans on voting for the incumbent again. But he likes what he sees in Haley. “I can’t quite put my finger on why,” he said. “It’s just kind of gut feeling. She might be good for the country.”

Weekend reads

“Regardless of your personal orientation toward Trump, attending one of his rallies will be a clarifying experience. ... This might sound unpleasant to some; consider it an act of civic hygiene.” You Should Go to a Trump Rally (McKay Coppins, The Atlantic)

“Obama, for all his lofty rhetoric, is at his heart a technocrat. ... Biden has never been an organizational wizard. Instead, he has often relied on his instincts and guts.” This is the real reason for the Obama-Biden camp divide (Holly Otterbein, Politico)

“Like no one before him, Donald Trump is at once a former president, a leading candidate to be nominated for the presidency again, and a criminal defendant. ... This unprecedented situation raises questions that previously would have been implausible law school hypotheticals. These are some of them.” How Donald Trump’s Candidacy Tests the US Constitution (Gregory Korte, Bloomberg)

One last thing — a reminder to follow our new On the Trail 2024 Instagram account.

Have a question for the next Friday mailbag? Drop me a line at onthetrail@deseretnews.com.

See you on the trail.

Editor’s Note: The Deseret News is committed to covering issues of substance in the 2024 presidential race from its unique perspective and editorial values. Our team of political reporters will bring you in-depth coverage of the most relevant news and information to help you make an informed decision. Find our complete coverage of the election here.