Disaster lies behind the Kremlin’s bluster

The sight of Vladimir Putin standing alone on a vast stage in Moscow seemed like a metaphor for the Russian president’s isolation. Even a tyrant like Stalin and subsequent Soviet leaders tended to make speeches surrounded by high-ranking colleagues.

President Putin seems happy to take full personal ownership of his ill-judged invasion of Ukraine and will, therefore, stand or fall by its fate. Nearly a year after the first tank rolled across the border, only for Russia’s vaunted military might to be found wanting, he is showing no sign of backing down or going away.

Indeed, it would be a mistake to imagine he is alone in his delusional justification for the war. The bizarre narrative he has cultivated – one of containing an illegitimate neo-Nazi state propped up by Nato aggressors intent on destroying the motherland – is shared by a large number of Russians.

In his address yesterday, he invoked the Russian spirit of defiance in the face of an invader, of a people fighting for their existence as a nation. They would never give in. Sadly, he may be right in this assessment, which means the Ukrainians face years of attritional conflict with no obvious end because they will not give up either and Nato cannot let them be defeated.

As he spoke, Joe Biden was arriving in Warsaw, where he repeated America’s determination to support Ukraine “for as long as it takes”. That may change if there is a Republican president in two years’ time and Americans grow weary of the cost of sustaining another lengthy war.

It is possible, also, that the Russians will make advances in the counter-offensive now under way and then sue for a negotiated settlement – although it is unlikely Kyiv would agree to that. Once again Mr Putin sought to play the nuclear card, suspending a landmark arms control treaty with the US, announcing that new strategic systems had been put on combat duty, and warning that Moscow could resume nuclear tests. This bluster merely underscores his weakness.

What was most bizarre about President Putin’s speech was that it was a “state of the union” address that looked forward to a golden economic future, with investment in new technologies and expanding higher education. The reality is that this war has ruined Russia. The audience applauding him in Moscow yesterday must surely know this by now and who is responsible.