What was discovered during review of Dolphins-Bills film. And what must change Sunday

Part 1 of a two-part series

To better understand what must change for the Dolphins against Buffalo on Sunday, I subjected myself to a third viewing of the Bills’ season-ending 56-26 shellacking of the Dolphins on Jan. 3. Poking my forehead with toothpicks might have been a more pleasant exercise.

But there were many things to be learned from that loss and Miami’s 31-28 Week 2 home loss to the Bills.

Before we get to that, it’s important to note key changes to both teams since that miserable day for the Dolphins in Orchard Park, New York.

On offense, snaps given that day to Lynn Bowden Jr. and Isaiah Ford will instead go to Jaylen Waddle and Albert Wilson. (Will Fuller is out Sunday because of a personal matter.)

Along with two offensive line changes and Jason McCourty replacing Bobby McCain, the front seven subtracted Kyle Van Loy and Shaq Lawson (who struggled in that finale) and replaced them with Adam Butler, Elandon Roberts (missed the 2020 finale due to injury) and Jaelan Phillips and greater helpings of Andrew Van Ginkel, who had three of Miami’s best defensive plays in that Week 17 game.

On offense, the Bills have one new offensive line starter and replaced Dolphins-killer John Brown with receiver Emmanuel Sanders. Defensively, cornerback Josh Norman is gone, but the Bills will have one huge piece who didn’t play in Week 17 against Miami: two-time Pro Bowl cornerback Tre’Davious White. They will also have starting end Jerry Hughes — who didn’t play in Week 17 — and a new starting defensive end, former UM rookie Greg Rousseau.

Some things worth noting heading into Sunday’s game.

THINGS THAT MUST CHANGE

▪ Slow Bills Pro Bowl receiver Stefon Diggs, who caught 13 of 18 targets for 215 yards in the two games against Miami in 2020, and get the type of play generally expected from Xavien Howard and Byron Jones.

In the Jan. 3 finale, Diggs caught seven of eight targets (including two for two for 26 yards against Howard), with Eric Rowe responsible for his only incompletion.

Howard had an interception in that finale, but the other five passes thrown against him were caught for 100 yards, including a 51-yarder to Gabriel Davis. In the first game, Brown — now out of the league — caught three passes for 67 yards and a touchdown against Howard.

Howard was great against 14 teams last season, subpar against the Bills. That absolutely must change. And Jones allowed a touchdown pass in that finale, a 32-yarder to Brown; he also had an interception.

▪ Better slot cornerback play and the Nik Needham that we saw most of 2020.

Needham was very good against 14 teams last season, dreadful against Buffalo. (Do you sense a trend here?)

In the first game, he allowed three completions for 42 yards to Cole Beasley and two for 47 yards to Isaiah McKenzie.

In the finale, he allowed a 56 yard touchdown to Davis and two touchdowns to McKenzie.

That finale likely led the Dolphins to sign Justin Coleman in the offseason.

What happened to Needham against Buffalo is stunning. In two games against the Bills last season, he allowed eight of nine passes to be caught for 166 yards and three touchdowns (a quarterback-perfect 158.3 passer rating in his coverage area).

In the 14 other games, his passer rating against was 78.5, among the best in the league for slot corners. Go figure.

Needham played nearly all of Miami’s slot cornerback snaps against New England in the opener.

▪ Get more pressure on Josh Allen. And keep him from running wild.

The Dolphins managed just two sacks in the two games against Buffalo last season (1.5 by Van Ginkel, a half sack by Emmanuel Ogbah). The pass rush was so dismal in the finale that Miami got only two hits on Allen in his one half of work — a Van Ginkel sack and a Zach Sieler hit.

Ogbah produced four hurries in that game, but Allen — displaying nimbleness in the pocket — consistently escaped trouble and killed the Dolphins with short and intermediate routes.

Perhaps Butler and Phillips (who had a quiet debut) can get the pressure on Allen that Van Noy and Lawson couldn’t.

But Christian Wilkins, in four games, has never sacked Allen; he had 35 pass rushes against Bills quarterbacks in that finale and had only two hurries to show for it.

On one play in the finale, Jerome Baker and Lawson were perfectly positioned for a sack and Allen eluded them and gained 7 yards.

Allen has a ridiculous 340 yards rushing — and a 9.7-yard average per run - in six games against Miami, more than any team. Defensive coordinator Josh Boyer said the defenders assigned to stop Bills running plays (including those by Allen) must stick to that and not take on other jobs.

The Dolphins blitzed the second most of any team in Week 1 (45 percent of the time on passing plays) but produced only one sack against New England, even though Mac Jones isn’t known for his mobility. They blitzed 41 percent of the time when the opposing quarterback passed last season, second-most behind only Baltimore.

But blitzing didn’t work against Allen; the Dolphins blitzed him on 31 of 62 attempted passing plays and sacked him only twice in six quarters last season, with Allen producing a 134 passer rating in the two games.

Pittsburgh rarely blitzed him last Sunday and held the Bills to 16 points. That Steelers strategy would run counter to the Boyer/Brian Flores philosophy but seems the smarter way to go on Sunday.

The good news: Allen has fumbled nine times (and lost three of them) in his past 10 games, and the Dolphins are good at creating takeaways.

▪ A better Jerome Baker. And by the way, let him rush the passer more against Buffalo.

Per Pro Football Focus, the Dolphins’ five worst performers in that finale were Van Noy, Rowe, McCain, Baker and Needham. Baker allowed three of four targets to be caught for 40 yards.

Baker also missed two tackles and was part of a defense that relinquished two embarrassing long runs to former practice squad back Antonio Williams. Raekwon Davis was victimized on both runs; he’s now out indefinitely with a knee injury.

But Baker rushed only four times (and produced two pressures) in a game Buffalo dropped back to pass 39 times. That’s not enough for a player with seven sacks last season. Let Baker rush the passer Sunday!

Incidentally, Van Noy was torched in the passing game in the two games against Buffalo last season.

▪ A more accurate Tua Tagovailoa.

Tagovailoa was hurt in that finale by four drops (including two by DeVante Parker and one ridiculous drop by Ford), poor separation by his receivers at times and bad luck on one of his interceptions, when Parker slipped and Norman — who’s no longer a Bill - picked it off.

But he also made bad decisions on two picks, was off with his accuracy on a half a dozen throws and miscommunicated with Parker on an incomplete third-and-goal pass.

It was notable that Tagovailoa had a dismal 47.7 rating on the 47 plays he wasn’t blitzed against Buffalo in that game but had a sterling 118.8 rating on the 12 plays he was blitzed.

He was kept clean on 80.3 percent of his passing snaps but had just a 58.9 passer rating on those snaps, which must improve. So must his one-for-nine accuracy on throws between 11 and 20 yards in that game in that Bills finale. Tagovailoa was 3 for 13 for 89 yards on throws of 10 yards or more in the opener last week, with two drops.

▪ A better Robert Hunt and Austin Jackson.

Hunt allowed Buffalo’s only sack in the finale (against Dion Dawkins) and four pressures; Miami saw that and moved him to guard, where the Dolphins hope he will thrive.

Jackson permitted a hit and three pressures; he’s back after a bout with COVID-19.

The line produced no holes for running back Myles Gaskin, who had seven carries for 20 yards in that Jan. 3 game.

Jackson and former center Ted Karras graded out horribly as run blockers, and Miami then never offered Karras a contract despite telling him they wanted to keep him. The tight ends all struggled as run blockers that day. Solomon Kindley didn’t play.

▪ Don’t play a soft zone. Allen — and later, Matt Barkley — found holes for intermediate gains that produced a bunch of first downs. Mac Jones had success against Miami’s zone on Sunday.

▪ Eliminate the foolish mistakes. On one play, Tagovailoa had a feet first slide on a run near the goal line, which nearly foiled that drive. He can’t repeat the mental errors — leading to interceptions — that he had in the opener and the preseason game against Chicago. PFF said he has made turnover-worthy plays on 4 percent of his NFL passes, twice the number of the best quarterbacks.

▪ Better special teams work on returns. Hollins, Nate Holley and Blake Ferguson all missed tackles on McKenzie’s 84-yard return for a touchdown. Then he faked out Matt Haack (now the Bills’ punter) and outran Clayton Fejedelem.

The tackling was poor on defense, too, with running back Zach Moss shedding Howard and Baker for one third-down conversion run.

Miami can’t compete with Buffalo if the tackling remains that shoddy.

Coming Saturday: Things to build on from those losses to Buffalo.

Here’s my Friday Dolphins piece on Will Fuller — who’s out indefinitely due to a personal matter — and more from Brian Flores’ news conference Friday morning.