Dismal voter turnout plagued Fresno’s primary election. How many didn’t bother, and why?

Fresno County experienced its second-lowest rate of turnout among registered voters for the June 7 primary in 40 years, at less than just over 27%.

Data from the Fresno County Clerk/Registrar of Voters on Friday shows that about 135,200 people bothered to vote either by mail or in person for the midterm primary.

The election selected nominees for governor and other statewide offices, Congress, state Assembly and Senate, and an array local positions in city and county government.

That number represents 27.1% of the county’s 498,759 registered voters. All that’s left to count are ballots where voters didn’t sign the envelope, or signatures didn’t match those on record.

“There are several reasons turnout was low across the state and locally,” said Lisa Bryant, associate professor and chairperson of the Political Science Department at Fresno State. “Statewide there were very few obvious competitive elections, and the field of candidates for most statewide offices were largely unknown by most voters.”

“Even in the Governor’s race, the average voter probably couldn’t name the top challenger” to Democratic incumbent Gov. Gavin Newsom, Bryant told The Fresno Bee.

Low turnout isn’t unusual for off-year primary elections in which the U.S. presidency is not on the ballot. The average turnout since 2002 for midterm primary elections in Fresno County has been about 31%, compared to almost 43% in presidential primaries dating to 2000.

But in midterm primaries since 1982, the only election with a more dismal turnout was in June 2014, at 26.1%.

Several neighboring counties in the central San Joaquin Valley saw their turnout rates dip to their lowest points in more than 30 years:

• Kings County: 28.8% of 61,588 registered voters.

• Madera County: 34.5% of 71,961 registered voters.

• Tulare County: 24.7% of 206,819 registered voters.
  
  

Merced County’s turnout of 25.7% came close to its previous low points of 25.4% in June 2006 and 25.1% in 2014.

Statewide, 32.7% of California’s 21,941,212 registered voters cast ballots in the June primary. While that’s also the second-lowest turnout for a midterm primary in 32 years, it’s well above the low-water mark of just 25.2% in June 2014.

Historically, turnout in November midterms is considerably higher than the corresponding primaries – an average of about 18 percentage points over the past 20 years, and reaching 25.2 percentage points higher in 2018.

The differences between primary and general elections are even more pronounced in presidential election years.

But the low turnout this year is also indicative of low participation among residents over the age of 18 who are eligible to vote. The California Secretary of State’s office estimates that of just over 1 million residents in Fresno County, about 642,000 are eligible to vote. Of those, almost 143,000 aren’t even registered to vote.

What the numbers indicate is that in this month’s primary election, more than a half-million Fresno County residents who could have voted did not do so. That’s about eight out of 10 would-be voters who remained on the sidelines as nominees were chosen and some offices won outright.

“There also wasn’t a lot of campaigning – in part due to the (perceived) lack of competitive races, but also because fairly secure incumbents who raise more (money) typically save their money for the general election,” Bryant told The Bee. “This makes the cost and effort of obtaining information higher for voters, meaning it takes more time and effort to learn about the various candidates.”

“And in many cases, there is very little information out there,” she added. “Low-information elections lead to low voter turnout.”

Many voters may also have found themselves confronted by unfamiliar names after a redrawing many legislative districts, including major overhauls of some, following the 2020 Census, Bryant said. “New districts may have left some voters feeling uncertain or disconnected from the election,” she said.

Outright winners, no close contests

In Fresno County races, the margins between candidates are so wide that the remaining few ballots yet to be processed cannot close the gaps. In local races with more than two candidates, the top candidate can win outright if he or she garners more than half of the votes cast. Otherwise, the two top vote-getters face one another in a November runoff.

In two-candidate races, the leading vote-getter wins without the need for a runoff.

Those wrapped-up races include the District 4 seat on the Fresno County Board of Supervisors, in which incumbent Buddy Mendes appears to be the likely outright winner by receiving more than 54% of the votes over challengers Jose Ramirez and Danny Parra.

Similarly, in a bid to succeed retiring Fresno County Sheriff Margaret Mims, assistant sheriff John Zanoni received almost 60% of the votes over Mark Salazar, deputy chief for the Fresno Police Department. Zanoni had received Mims’ endorsement in the race.

In a three-person field to succeed Jim Yovino as the Fresno County Superintendent of Schools, Michelle Cantwell-Copher won outright with more than 64% of the votes, outdistancing Daren A. Miller and Eliseo V. Gamino.

All four contested seats on the Fresno City Council also have leading candidates who safely have more than half of the votes cast to avoid a November runoff.

• In District 1 covering the Tower District and west-central Fresno, incumbent Council Member Esmeralda Soria faced term limits and could not run again. Annalisa Perea, whose father Henry R. Perea and brother Henry T. Perea both previously served on the City Council, had almost 59% of the votes, outpolling fellow candidates Cary Catalano, former Council Member and former state Assembly Member Mike Briggs, and Jeremy M. Preis.

• Incumbent District 3 Council Member Miguel Arias, whose district includes most of southwest Fresno, received more than 62% of the votes over challengers Larry T. Burrus and Nickolas Wildstar.

• Luis Chavez, the incumbent council member in District 5 representing southeast Fresno, won more than 55% of the votes in his race against challenger Brandon Vang.

• In District 7, which covers portions of central and east-central Fresno, incumbent Nelson Esparza pulled in almost two-thirds of the votes, overwhelming challengers Courtney Westfall and Jason Jesada Keomanee.