District Baseball preview: Breakdowns and predictions of district tournaments starting Monday
The time is now for area teams on the diamond as district tournaments get going on Monday.
Some programs have a virtual lock on a spot in the state playoffs based on their play during regular season. Others know it all comes down to this.
Gulf Breeze, Northview, Pace and Pensacola Catholic each took home district titles in 2021 while Escambia, Jay and Milton earned runner-up finishes in their respective districts.
Before all the fun begins, here are breakdowns and predictions of every district involving an area team:
District 1-6A (Booker T. Washington, Navarre, Pace, Tate)
Where: Higher seed hosts
Quarterfinals: No. 5 Navarre at. No. 4 Niceville, TBD, Monday; No. 7 Booker T. Washington at No. 2 Tate, 6 p.m. Monday; No. 6 Fort Walton Beach at No. 3 Crestview, 6:30 p.m. Monday (No. 1 Pace - Bye)
Semifinals: Navarre/Niceville winner at Pace, TBD Tuesday; Booker T. Washington/Tate winner vs. Fort Walton Beach/Crestview winner, TBD Tuesday
District Final: TBD Wednesday
The local skinny: With all due respect to Booker T. Washington and Navarre, the district is all about the two rivals that are the top-ranked programs in Class 6A: Pace and Tate.
The two teams spilt the season-series, with each team winning on the other's home field.
With a 20-3 record, the Patriots successfully recorded their first 20-win season since their state runner-up team in 2018. They won their last five games in a row. However, the last squad to hand them a defeat was the Aggies on April 15.
PNJ Baseball Leaderboard: Escambia, Santa Rosa county stat leaders in late April
PNJ Midseason Baseball Report: Accolades and rankings for the 2022 high school season so far
Riding a nine-game winning streak into the postseason, Tate has an area-best 21-2 mark this season. The team has outscored opponents by a whopping margin of 227-43.
It is worth mentioning that one of the Aggies' two losses this season did come against Crestview, a team they may see in the district semifinals.
District Final prediction: Tate over Pace
Listen, if you can say for sure who is going to win on Thursday night, you probably fall under one of three categories: a liar, a player, coach or supporter from one of the teams, or a person who should get some lottery tickets immediately.
The truth is that Pace and Tate are evenly-matched, particularly in the pitching category. Each features aces at the top of their rotation in Aggies senior UWF commit Josiah Glodfelter and Patriots senior and projected MLB Draft pick Walter Ford. Both squads are bolstered by quality arms that can shut down lineups in relief (Tate - Dalton Biggs, Ethan McAnally; Pace - Jackson McKenzie, Tanner Sauls).
The Patriots have hit for more power while the Aggies are hitting for a better average. Defense of course could play a huge factor. During their regular season meetings, the team that committed the most errors ended the night with a loss.
And in both meetings, the battery of Ford and senior catcher Broc Parmer did allow a number of runners to advance on passed balls. Pace can't afford giveaway bases at this stage of the season.
In 2021, the Patriots ended Tate's season following a 14-1 in a district semifinal obliteration. With the top seed in the region likely at stake, will Tate get revenge or will Pace prove to be too strong again. I speak for everyone when I say I can't wait to find out.
District 1-5A (Escambia, Gulf Breeze, Milton, Pine Forest)
Where: Gulf Breeze High School
Semifinals: No. 4 Milton vs. No. 1 Gulf Breeze, TBD Tuesday; No. 3 Pine Forest vs. No. 2 Escambia, TBD Tuesday
District Final: TBD Wednesday
The local skinny: Gulf Breeze has overcome an 0-4 start to the season to finish with a 13-9 record and play as the top seed in the district. The Dolphins are the favorites to emerge with their third-straight district crown.
Yet, the other teams do have a puncher's chance.
Milton could only muster five victories in 2022, but the Panthers do own a win against Pensacola Catholic and nearly upset Pace. At 13-9, Pine Forest is enjoying its best since reaching the 7A regional finals in 2019. Escambia leads the district in overall wins this season with 14.
Of the four teams, only Milton is ranked outside of the top eight in regional rankings.
District Final prediction: Gulf Breeze over Escambia
Why are the Dolphins the favorite? They are 5-0 against district opponents this season and have yet to be challenged. Gulf Breeze's lowest margin of victory came in a 9-2 win over the Gators on March 28. The team's four other wins were decided by an average of 11 runs.
District 1-4A (Pensacola, West Florida)
Where: South Walton High School
Quarterfinals: No. 5 Pensacola vs. No. 4 Bay, TBD Monday (No. 1 Arnold, No. 2 South Walton, No. 3 West Florida - Bye)
Semifinals: Pensacola/Bay winner vs. Arnold, TBD Tuesday; No. 3 West Florida vs. No. 2 South Walton, 6 p.m. Tuesday
District Final: TBD Thursday
The local skinny: Pensacola has endured a tough season as it is winless in 17 games. West Florida on the other hand has been hot and cold.
The Jaguars' won 12-3 over Central in their regular-season finale, snapping a four-game slide. That skid was proceeded by wins in seven of its previous eight. The question is can West Florida revert back to the play that carried them through the first three walks of April?
District Final prediction: Arnold over West Florida
If the Jaguars have shook off their late April rust, a win over South Walton isn't out of the question. The Seahawks only won once in their last four games down the stretch and could be ripe for an upset.
The problem is that after that, Arnold likely awaits. The Marlins are ranked second in the region and seventh in 4A. One upset is one thing, but two may be asking for too much.
District 1-3A (Pensacola Catholic)
Where: Marianna High School
Quarterfinals: No. 5 North Bay Haven Academy vs. No. 4 Maclay, 12 p.m. Monday; No. 7 Walton vs. No. 2 Florida State University High, 3 p.m. Monday; No. 6 Rutherford vs. No. 3 Marianna, 6 p.m. Monday (No. 1 Pensacola Catholic - Bye)
Semifinals: North Bay Haven Academy/Maclay winner vs. Pensacola Catholic, TBD Tuesday; Walton/Florida State University High winner vs. Rutherford/Marianna winner TBD Tuesday
District Final: TBD Thursday
The local skinny: Pensacola Catholic stumbled a bit during its stretch run to the postseason. The Crusaders suffered three consecutive one-run losses in mid-April before falling in their regular-season finale against Pace.
Still, the boys in green should fully expected to make a deep run given the firepower on the roster. Jackson Hiatt has been the area's best offensive force and that goes without debate. Possibly in line for the triple crown, the senior infielder is hitting .486 with nine home runs and 37 RBIs.
Blasting 28 homers as a team, Catholic has also gotten strong offensive production from the likes of sophomore infielder Chris Rembert (.411, 5 HR, 29 RBI) and senior infielder Carter McCulley (.286, 4 HR, 23 RBI). Meanwhile, Jackson Kohr leads the way on the mound. The sophomore is 5-1 with a 3.30 ERA through a team-high 46 2/3 innings pitched. He's struck out 51 batters while conceding six walks.
Finishing the year with a 15-8 record, the Crusaders are the top-ranked team in Region 1-3A, third in 6A and 16th overall.
District Final prediction: Pensacola Catholic over Florida State University High
If no upsets take place in the quarterfinal round and the Crusaders win their semifinal contest, they are slated to face an opponent it has trampled over the years.
Catholic has won 14 straight against the second-seeded Seminoles, including a 11-1 regional semifinal victory last year. The team has beaten No. 3 seed Marianna 18 times in a row dating back to 2012.
The top seed should feel confident, but if any of their playoff games are close, the Crusaders are well-equipped to handle those moments. More than half of their games were decided by two-runs or less, with the team going 7-6 in those contests.
District 1-1A (Central, Jay, Northview)
Where: Northview High School
Quarterfinals: No. 5 Laurel Hill vs. No. 4 Baker 6 p.m. Monday (No. 1 Northview, No. 2 Jay, No. 3 Central - Bye)
Semifinals: Laurel Hill/Baker vs. Northview, TBD Tuesday; Central vs. Jay, 4 p.m. Tuesday
District Final: 7 p.m. Thursday
The local skinny: Although its been alternating wins and losses over its last seven games, Northview is sitting pretty in terms of extending its season beyond this week.
Finishing with a 14-7 record, the Chiefs are ranked second in the region. And with a 9-5 win over Jay in its regular-season finale, the top seed in this district joined Tate as the only teams to score more than 200 runs this season.
The Royals finished just barely over .500 with a 10-9-1 mark while Central ended the regular season with three-straight losses to finish at 13-12. With Jay ranked fourth in the region and the Jaguars right behind in fifth, their semifinal tilt may decide who goes home and who keeps playing.
District Final prediction: Northview over Jay
The Royals are the only team in the district to get the best of the Chiefs with a 5-3 win on March 11. In that matchup, sophomore Ethan McDonald only allowed one earned run on five hits and a walk through six innings of work.
However, Northview has shown much more consistency and competitiveness throughout 2022. Of its seven losses, only one came by more than three runs. The team never had a losing streak stretch past two games.
With that said, the playoffs are less about sample size and more about who made the bigger plays and the right calls in a one-game elimination tournament. Can a player like McDonald step up again or will the Chiefs be crowned district champs in back-to-back years?
PNJ Rankings entering districts
1. Tate. 2. Pace. 3. Pensacola Catholic. 4. Gulf Breeze. 5. Northview
Patrick Bernadeau is a sports reporter for the Pensacola News Journal. He can be reached at (850) 503-3828, on Twitter @PatBernadeau or via email at pbernadeau@gannett.com.
This article originally appeared on Pensacola News Journal: High School Baseball: Pensacola-area squads begin district play Monday
