Will a disturbance in the Atlantic turn into a depression? What the forecast shows

National Hurricane Center
·1 min read

Forecasters are monitoring a disturbance in the Atlantic that now has a slightly higher chance of turning into a depression over the next couple of days.

The system was producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms south of the Cabo Verde islands Monday morning, according to the National Hurricane Center.

Forecasters say the disturbance could gradually develop as it quickly moves west to west-northwest across the Atlantic over the next few days.

Its formation chances has increased to 20% for the next 48 hours and 40% through the next five days, according to the hurricane center. The environmental conditions are expected to become less favorable by this weekend, according to the hurricane center.

If the system were to strengthen into a named storm, we’ll meet Danielle. It would be the fourth named storm of the Atlantic’s 2022 hurricane season. At the moment, it’s not a threat to the U.S.

South Florida is forecast to see Saharan dust soon. Will it affect the disturbance?

But, wait, isn’t South Florida forecast to get a plume of Saharan dust this week? Will the dust affect the possible depression?

While Saharan dust can help reduce storm formations in the Atlantic, the disturbance is too far away to be affected by the dusty allergy-inducing plume that’s expected to settle over South Florida Wednesday, according to the National Weather Service in Miami.

By the time the disturbance reaches the center of the Atlantic this weekend, South Florida’s dust will be long gone, the weather service said.

NOAA’s recently revised prediction says there could be 11 to 17 named storms before the Atlantic’s 2022 hurricane season ends on Nov. 30.