Storm systems emerge as peak hurricane season nears

With the start of the peak period of hurricane season about a week away, a major spike in activity in the Atlantic basin has arrived.

Three storm systems are being watched, two in the Atlantic Ocean and another still on the African continent.

The most recent system is a tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic. It’s producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms, but conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for slow development by Sunday and into early next week as the system moves west-northwest at 10 to 15 miles per hour. The National Hurricane Center gives it a 20% chance of development during the next five days.

A second system still on Africa’s west coast has a 40% chance of development during the next five days.

Forecasters indicated Wednesday that storm development from a third system — a small trough of low pressure off the coast of Africa — was unlikely.

That system weakened, and odds of its development were forecast at near 0%, the National Hurricane Center.

The tropics typically start producing more storms in mid-August, as patches of disturbed weather roll off the west African coast, with storm formation reaching a peak around Sept. 10 and only falling to pre-peak conditions by late October.

Disturbances that emerge off Africa are closely watched by the National Hurricane Center because the Cabo Verde Islands are a central spot that spawns the majority of Atlantic hurricanes that emerge in August.

Though this season is not expected to top the record-breaking 30 named storms in 2020, NOAA is still anticipating a season more active than normal.

An average season now generates around 14 named storms with seven becoming hurricanes and three developing into major hurricanes.

Experts had previously predicted anywhere from 13 to 20 named storms this year, with six to 10 strengthening into hurricanes. Of those, three to five were forecast to become major hurricanes, of Category 3 and above.

So far this season, there have been four tropical storms and one hurricane. On average, fifth-named storms usually form in late August, according to AccuWeather.

Hurricane Elsa formed a month ago before weakening back to tropical-storm strength and hitting Florida’s Gulf Coast.

The next named storm will be Fred.