Divisional playoff preview: How the Titans can beat the Bengals

For many football fans, we have reached the best weekend of the season.

The divisional round.

Over Saturday and Sunday, fans will be treated to four games, with the final eight teams left standing playing over the weekend for a shot at a conference championship.

Adding to the excitement is that the two teams who enjoyed bye weeks during wild-card weekend are now in action, as the Tennessee Titans and the Green Bay Packers join the fray.

The divisional round slate kicks off Saturday afternoon as the Titans, fresh off their bye week, host the Cincinnati Bengals. Thanks to their win over the Las Vegas Raiders, the Bengals are in the divisional round for the first time since the 1990 season, when they lost to the then-Los Angeles Raiders.

The team they beat in the wild-card round? The Houston Oilers, who would move a few seasons later to Nashville to become the Titans.

How can the Titans avoid that fate this time around? Here are the two things the Titans need to do to beat the Bengals.

Get productive pressure on Joe Burrow

(Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports)

The easiest “key to victory” concept that people in my line of work trot out before a big game is that “Team X needs to get pressure on the opposing quarterback. Preferably with four.”

Sit back, watch the clicks come rolling in, then do it again next week.

But, when it comes to pressuring Joe Burrow, simply getting pressure on the Bengals passer is not the answer. Why? Because Burrow is adept at handling pressure, and this season was one of the NFL’s most productive quarterbacks when under duress in the pocket.

Thanks to charting data from Pro Football Focus, we know that during the regular season Burrow posted an adjusted completion percentage of 71.2% this year when pressured, fifth-best in the league. (Interestingly enough, Ryan Tannehill, his opponent on Saturday, was third-best in the league with a mark of 71.8%).

Last week against the Raiders, Burrow was pressured on 13 dropbacks. On those plays he completed 5 of 11 passes for 68 yards and a touchdown, without an interception. That was good for an adjusted completion percentage of 77.8%.

So the mere fact that you generate pressure on Burrow is not enough. The pressure has to be productive for it to have an impact.

We can look at these two plays to try and illustrate the mission for the Titans’ defensive front this week. First, is this incompletion against the Raiders from wild-card weekend, as Burrow tries to hit Ja’Marr Chase on a vertical route:

The Raiders get pressure on both plays, yet one goes for an incompletion while the other goes for a first down. On the first play, the Raiders get pressure with four, thanks to a swim move to the inside from Yannick Ngakoue. That forces Burrow off his spot, as he starts to slide to the left before hitting the third step in his shotgun drop. That delays his read and throw, and the deep ball to Chase is slightly underthrown, and falls incomplete.

On the second play, however, the Raiders generate pressure thanks to a blitz from the second level. That takes a little longer to develop, and it gives Burrow enough time to rip a back-shoulder throw to Chase for a first down.

Pressure is production, from a defensive standpoint, but not all pressures are created equally. Quarterbacks that can slide in response to edge pressure, or make quick reads and throws against pressure from the second level, are one thing. But for most quarterbacks, including Burrow, quick pressure, coming through the A or B gaps, is tougher to handle.

Thankfully for the Titans, they have players up front that can generate that kind of quick pressure. Particularly, when Tennessee uses their sub rushing package with Jeffery Simmons and Denico Autry on the interior, and the tandem of Harold Landry and Bud Dupree coming off the edges, that could pose problems for the Bengals. Take this sack of Matthew Stafford, where Simmons generates interior pressure early in the down with a power move as the Titans roll out that combination up front:

The Titans have the talent up front to get pressure on Burrow, in a general sense. But if they can generate consistent interior pressure, that will throw off the timing of the Bengals’ route concept, and might force Burrow to make throws later in the down off difficult platforms. In the back-shoulder example above, Burrow can deal with the pressure because he has enough time to set and throw. But if forced off the spot early in the play, or sacked altogether because of quick interior pressure, those concepts are unlikely to be successful.

Efficiency in the play-action passing game

In recent years, the recipe for success when the Titans had the football was relatively simple: Rely heavily on Derrick Henry in the running game, and be efficient in the play-action passing game.

To the first point, we await news of Henry’s availability for the divisional round. According to head coach Mike Vrabel, the running back has a “big week of practice” ahead of him, one that will determine whether he is a full go for Saturday.

Regardless of who gets the carries for the Titans, the defenders in the Cincinnati locker room are aware of the challenges that the Tennessee running game poses:

That leads us to the second point. The play-action passing game.

While this year’s version of the Titans might not have been as efficient in the play-action passing game as in year’s past, it was still a core component of their offense. Tannehill had 174 play-action dropbacks this year, seventh-most in the league according to PFF, and he attempted 157 passes off play-action, completing 103 of them for 1,358 yards and seven touchdowns, against four interceptions.

Tannehill also averaged 2.3 yards per attempt more when using play-action.

An area where the Titans like to live when using play-action is in the maximum protection world, often throwing out of heavier personnel packages. On this play against the San Francisco 49ers, the Titans are backed up in their own territory, but come out throwing out of a heavy personnel package that sees reserve lineman Corey Levin aligned at tight end:

Again, you see maximum protection from the offense up front, as only Brown and Jones release downfield. This design is similar to Kyle Shanahan’s Both Runback, as both receivers push vertically and then curl downfield. Tennessee has 21 offensive personnel in the game, and the Titans respond with their 4-3 personnel, and with the defense playing Cover 1, the cornerbacks have to respect the vertical releases as they lack help over the top, which allows both curl routes to be open.

There are models for the Titans to implement, based on studying the Bengals defense. Take this play from the wild-card round, which finds Derek Carr hitting Zay Jones on the out route:

This is not a full max protection scheme, as Darren Waller releases to the flat, but the Raiders use 12 personnel for this play, and DeSean Jackson runs the deep post from the right side of the field. Jones runs the out route from the left, and with Waller releasing to the flat, that sets up a nice three-level read for Carr to diagnose. In response to the 12 personnel, the Bengals roll out their 3-4 look with both Sam Hubbard and Trey Hendrickson on the edges. Carr has time to read the concept out, and hits Jones for the decent gain.

While we await on news of Henry’s status for Saturday, we can also note that whether he is in the lineup or not, the Titans are going to turn to their play-action passing game. If they can find success against this Bengals defense when they do, they will be in good shape to advance.

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