Divisions too deep? Worries valid, troubling, but civil war unlikely, experts say

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Jan. 22—Four books released in the first two weeks of 2022 are not promising readers a happy new year. Instead, they're warning of the possibility of a new civil war or more political violence in the United States.

"This needs to be discussed," said Thomas Steiger, professor of sociology at Indiana State University. "A lot of people don't have an appreciation of this issue — this kind of creep [in the zeitgeist] was not conceivable 15 years ago."

The books are:

—Political scientist Barbara Walter's "How Civil Wars Start" examines how unrest in other countries fomented civil wars and draws parallels to incidents that have recently occurred in America.

—Stephen Marche's "The Next Civil War," a speculative work that proposes a variety of scenarios that could escalate into more widespread violence.

—The Anti-Defamation League's CEO Jonathan Greenblatt's "It Could Happen Here," discussing how intolerance and prejudices can mutate into acts of brutality and how such an escalation can be prevented.

—Maryland Congressman Jamie Raskin's "Unthinkable," examining the insurrection of Jan. 6, 2021, which occurred a week after his father committed suicide, and the subsequent second effort to impeach President Donald Trump.

But are these books sober analyses of social ills and how to avert them, or are they irresponsibly fanning the flames? Local professors of political science and sociology discussed the authors' responsibilities in dealing with such a powder keg of an issue, but agreed that the worries expressed are valid and troubling. The Justice Department announced last week plans to expand its investigations of domestic terrorism, which means the topic is being taken seriously at the highest levels.

The professors conceded that pockets of violence were possible, but none of them felt that any would be fomented in Terre Haute. But the organization Braver Angels of Indiana has organized a pair of virtual workshops later in the month with the goal of reducing political polarization and advocating civil discourse across the great divide.

None of the books — or anyone interviewed — suggest that what could occur would in any way resemble the conflagration that engulfed the United States in the 1860s.

Matt Bergbower, professor of Political Science at Indiana State University, said, "These divisions obviously do not line up on a Mason-Dixon line as they once did in the mid-1800s. And, many other civil wars seen across the globe have been based on religious or ethnic divisions that I see being much greater than that seen in 21st-century America."

He added, though, "Having said this, I am still concerned about growing acts of sporadic political violence, particularly during future campaign and election seasons. This violence can take on many forms outside of a special day in January where the U.S. Congress counts electoral college votes. It can come on Election Day, for example, when people are attempting to exercise their right to vote. Or, perhaps, that night when local officials are doing the counting of ballots.

"I hate to get too imaginative on the possibilities," he continued, "but I am very much concerned that some elements of our campaign and election cycle will be disrupted by political violence in 2022 and beyond. Our nation has a history of such violence, and I would hate to see us go backward on such accounts."

Carl Bernstein, the former Washington Post reporter who won a Pulitzer Prize for his investigation of President Richard Nixon's Watergate scandal and author of the new memoir "Chasing History," said, "As a country and as a people, we may be well beyond the ability to gather around democratic principles."

Bernstein, speaking during a virtual forum on the Washington Post's website, added, "Our country is not functioning well enough for there to be a consensus. There's a reason to fear, now that the genie is out of the bottle, that we may never be able to regain what we are as a democratic nation."

"It is empirically ridiculous to say there's not a problem out there," said Terrence Casey, professor of political science at Rose-Hulman Institute of Technology. But, of the books, he noted, "There is a necessity to raise warnings but there's also a necessity of responsibility to calm things down. I am a little concerned that those books serve to offer encouragement to our lesser angels."

Steiger agreed. "In the public mind, this becomes inevitable and that's what worries me — the inevitability," he said.

And if the COVID-19 pandemic hasn't disrupted life enough, it also bolstered the threat of political violence.

"The horrible social disruption of COVID exacerbated that, as well — everybody's depressed," Casey said. "It's affected the global psyche. You can't remove it from political problems. COVID kicked all those problems up to 11."

Joshua Kaufman, field event organizer for Braver Angels of Indiana, agreed. "COVID definitely ratcheted up the feelings. People were isolated and stressed out." Isolation imposed by the pandemic enabled many to hunker down in their ideological bunkers and prevented interactions that would've revealed the humanity of those with differing opinions.

The current breakdown in civility, the professors said, is not as abject as what caused the Civil War, and has occurred many times in American history.

"If you look at the partisan divisions we have now, they're not over intractable issues," Casey said. "Slavery was an intractable issue. You were going to have slavery or you were not going to have slavery. Being unable to resolve that question indeed led to war."

"In the '60s, the uproar was on the left, with Vietnam and civil rights," Steiger noted.

Casey agreed. "We've had pretty significant periods of partisan division before," he said. "Look at 1968, 1969 and it looked pretty darn bad and in some ways worse than where we are now. During the civil rights issues and in the Jim Crow south, there was a lot of political violence, but it didn't descend into civil war. The point is, we got through that.

"I don't think there are significant numbers of Americans who see [political violence] as the path forward," he added. "Even to the extent that they express views in that regard, I think that's performative rather than real. Are they sitting there and saying to themselves, 'Yeah, we want more of that! That's a great idea — let's do more of that'?

"I think there's only a relatively few people who would even contemplate picking up a gun," Casey continued. "Now, a relatively few number can still do a ton of damage."

But don't expect that damage to transpire in Terre Haute.

"Terre Haute does not strike me as the sort of place that will inculcate a bastion of extremism," Casey said. "It's a kind of mellow, moderate place. You're gonna see guys with Confederate flags on their pickup trucks, but there's also three colleges with liberal professors here."

"I don't see in Terre Haute clearly well-organized groups disrupting [society]," agreed Steiger, who is teaching a course on social movements. "I've seen people in the [Grand Traverse] Pie Company carrying pistols, but I've seen that a lot more in Indianapolis, and it's far more lefty-lefty than Terre Haute. But there are a lot of people there packing heat."

Braver Angels of Indiana's virtual workshops will be Jan. 22-23 from 1-4 p.m. each day, bringing together six to eight liberals and six to eight conservatives to help participants clarify their disagreements, reduce stereotyped thinking and find common ground. Organizer Kaufman said these workshops started after the 2016 election, and "The demand never let up.

"People are just tired — they're tired of the nasty political discussions," he added. "On TV, you see people using phrases like 'national divorce' or 'civil war,' and don't think we can reconcile. We can reconcile — we have more in common than we think we do; we just need to learn to talk to one another. The first step is to communicate.

"It's not about changing minds, it's about how to talk with one another without rancor, and not just get angry just because people have other views," Kaufman continued. "It's healthy to have more communication with people who have different thoughts and ideologies." Braver Angels will also set up one-on-one conversations for people who don't know anyone on the other side of the partisan divide.

Those interested in the workshop, either as a participant or observer, can register at BraverAngelsIndiana.com.

Casey is hopeful the country will return to sane discourse. "I don't see a timeline, but I think that is likely," he said. "There's a broader sense in the populace that they want to get beyond this. Because it has happened in the past. I have hope that it will get better."

David Kronke can be reached at 812-231-4232 or at david.kronke@tribstar.com.