Dobbs victory has turned bitter. Is Ohio abortion vote a sign pro-life movement is dying?

Mark Caleb Smith is Director of the Center for Political Studies at Cedarville University.

Ohio voters' decision to enshrine abortion rights into the state constitution has many around the nation wondering what pro-life politics look will look like in the future.

The vote was not particularly close — 57% "yes" to 43% "no." In 2020, Donald Trump won Ohio handily by 53% to 45%.

Republicans still control the machinery of the state's government.

Once purple, Ohio has become solidly red. But like Kentucky and Kansas, Ohio’s conservatism is not deep enough to push the pro-life cause across the finish line when abortion is on the ballot.

So, what factors might influence the future of pro-life politics?

Support of abortion rights more complex than many people think.

First, abortion is more divisive for Republicans than Democrats.

The two parties have been aligned around social issues for a generation, and they are typically predictable, but there are more pro-choice Republicans than pro-life Democrats.

Why Issue 1 won: How did abortion amendment pass in Ohio, and what does it mean for future elections?

If exit polls are accurate, one-fifth of Ohio Republicans voted in favor of abortion rights. When abortion, alone, is on the ballot, pro-life advocates may continue to lose in places like the Buckeye State.

Being anti-abortion rights may cost Republicans votes

Second, pro-life candidates have done well within the structure of general election contests, but that may not continue.

The Democrats are making abortion the defining issue at the state and local level, and Republicans, who once could use empty rhetoric in the Roe era, will have to consider how their positions might cost them votes in close contests.

Republican opinions on abortion may evolve

Third, the Republican Party will likely trim its position on abortion.

Former President Donald Trump, the current leader in the party’s presidential nomination contest, has already started to moderate, as has Nikki Haley, the candidate possibly emerging as his closest rival.

Pro-life activists and organizations have enjoyed significant access and influence within the GOP for many years, and that might continue, but the emerging price for a seat at the table may be their support for something like a 15-week federal ban as opposed to more restrictive policies.

The Dobbs decision is becoming a political 'footnote'

Fourth, the impact of Dobbs has been severely blunted by politics.

When the court decided to overturn Roe, it did not take a position on abortion as a policy, but only as a constitutional right.

This allowed politics to dictate America’s approach to its most polarizing, and now salient, issue. While Dobbs gave pro-life forces an opportunity, the pro-choice side has the political and policy momentum.

It is impossible to predict with any precision, but it appears likely Dobbs will not, in the short term, dramatically influence the practice of abortion for most Americans. While Dobbs was a constitutional watershed, for now, it is more of a policy footnote.

The Christian right tasting bitter fruit

Fifth, and finally, the pro-life movement, and, possibly, the conservative Christians that make up the core of the Republican Party, may have to step back and assess some fundamentals.

Since its modern inception in the late 1970s, the Christian right has sought to use the levers of government to push back against a shifting culture.

This culminated in Dobbs, but the fruits of that victory are bitter.

Court decisions alone cannot change culture. Laws, by themselves, can teach and channel behavior, but they cannot transform the inner life.

The debate within Christian circles regarding Christian nationalism reflects this underlying assumption—the scope of government can determine cultural outcomes. For now, the government is bending toward the culture’s approach to sexuality.

Of course, this does not mean withdrawal from politics, but at least some of the passion for politics must be channeled into culture-building.

I'm in an ad supporting Issue 1. Cruelty of 'Christians' opposing it is staggering.

Education, persuasion, a presence in a range of communities, and not just those that look and think like we do, carry the seeds of change at least as much, or more, than votes and policy. This is not news to the pro-life movement, which already engages in these activities, but more of a reminder that this will be a long process.

Brown v. Board of Education, another constitutional touchstone, did not shift America’s approach to race.

As a legal matter, the case took more than two decades to be implemented across the South. It took generational change, protests, shifting migration patterns, and strong federal legislation before dramatic effects were obvious.

We can argue about the extent of America’s transformation on race, but the amount of movement since 1954 is undeniable.

The same could be true for the pro-life cause when we look back from twenty to forty years in the future.

The pro-life community will need the long lens of history to find its path forward.

Dobbs has happened, and the political winds are blowing against them. Now, the hard part truly begins.

Mark Caleb Smith is Director of the Center for Political Studies at Cedarville University.

This article originally appeared on The Columbus Dispatch: Issue 1 is abortion win. Has pro-life movement lost political power?