Does Centuria Metropolitan REIT's (ASX:CMA) Share Price Gain of 28% Match Its Business Performance?

Simply Wall St

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By buying an index fund, you can roughly match the market return with ease. But if you buy good businesses at attractive prices, your portfolio returns could exceed the average market return. For example, Centuria Metropolitan REIT (ASX:CMA) shareholders have seen the share price rise 28% over three years, well in excess of the market return (22%, not including dividends). However, more recent returns haven't been as impressive as that, with the stock returning just 26% in the last year, including dividends.

View our latest analysis for Centuria Metropolitan REIT

While the efficient markets hypothesis continues to be taught by some, it has been proven that markets are over-reactive dynamic systems, and investors are not always rational. One way to examine how market sentiment has changed over time is to look at the interaction between a company's share price and its earnings per share (EPS).

During three years of share price growth, Centuria Metropolitan REIT achieved compound earnings per share growth of 6.0% per year. In comparison, the 8.6% per year gain in the share price outpaces the EPS growth. This indicates that the market is feeling more optimistic on the stock, after the last few years of progress. It's not unusual to see the market 're-rate' a stock, after a few years of growth.

The graphic below depicts how EPS has changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).

ASX:CMA Past and Future Earnings, July 12th 2019

It might be well worthwhile taking a look at our free report on Centuria Metropolitan REIT's earnings, revenue and cash flow.

What About Dividends?

As well as measuring the share price return, investors should also consider the total shareholder return (TSR). The TSR incorporates the value of any spin-offs or discounted capital raisings, along with any dividends, based on the assumption that the dividends are reinvested. So for companies that pay a generous dividend, the TSR is often a lot higher than the share price return. We note that for Centuria Metropolitan REIT the TSR over the last 3 years was 63%, which is better than the share price return mentioned above. This is largely a result of its dividend payments!

A Different Perspective

It's nice to see that Centuria Metropolitan REIT shareholders have gained 26% (in total) over the last year. And yes, that does include the dividend. That's better than the annualized TSR of 18% over the last three years. The improving returns to shareholders suggests the stock is becoming more popular with time. Before spending more time on Centuria Metropolitan REIT it might be wise to click here to see if insiders have been buying or selling shares.

If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).

Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on AU exchanges.

We aim to bring you long-term focused research analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material.

If you spot an error that warrants correction, please contact the editor at editorial-team@simplywallst.com. This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. Simply Wall St has no position in the stocks mentioned. Thank you for reading.