How does hurricane forecasting work?

·1 min read

After a quiet start to the 2022 hurricane season, there are now two hurricanes and a potential new storm that have developed within a few days.

Hurricane Earl, the first major hurricane of the year, is showing signs that it could produce winds over 130 miles an hour, passing through Bermuda.

There were originally 18 storms predicted in the Atlantic hurricane season forecast, and as the season peak approaches, hurricane experts now say the forecast may be off.

ALSO READ: Severe Weather Center 9 breaks down quiet hurricane season so far

In the video above, meteorologist John Ahrens talks to Colorado State professor Phil Klotzback, who is responsible for the seasonal Atlantic hurricae forecasts, on the challenges of hurricane forecasting.

“So far we’ve had five storms, two hurricanes -- no major hurricanes, but the National Hurricane Center is forecasting Earl to become a major hurricane tomorrow, so potentially our numbers are starting to catch up with the average, but will we hit the above average seasonal forecast that we predicted? At this point that is looking fairly unlikely,” Klotzback said.

>>Watch the full conversation on the science behind hurricane forecasting in the video below.