How does J. Gruber's Hagerstown Town & Country Almanack predict the weather?
What does J. Gruber's Hagerstown Town and Country Almanack say about the weather as we head into the holiday season?
Generally speaking, it's going to be seasonably cold, and there's a chance for a little snow in the Tri-State area, starting the first week of December.
But don't get your hopes up. The almanack, which has been published continuously for 228 years, is predicting rain and mild temperatures, too.
And sorry, forecasters aren't expecting a white Christmas.
The almanack dubs itself as the second-oldest almanack in the U.S., and the only one that is still published by direct descendants of its founder. It's editor, Charles W. Fisher Jr., of the Philadelphia area, is the fifth great grandson of Gruber.
The almanack, which covers five states in the mid-Atlantic area, was released in August both in print and online at www.almanack.com.
"We provide it to a lot of mom-and-pop operations as well as magazine subscriptions," said Jerry Spessard, business and sales manager for the almanack.
But have you ever wondered how the almanack goes about predicting the weather so far in advance?
How do the almanack's authors predict the weather?
The weather for the year is predicted 18 months in advance and put together a year in advance. So, the weather predictions for 2025 will be done this coming April.
Meteorologist Chad Merrill creates the weather predictions for the almanack.
"Usually, I start forecasting after the holidays in early January," Merrill said.
The most crucial part, Merrill said, is identifying years that will be similar to others.
"This helps me figure out what to forecast on day to day," he said.
Looking at the Pacific and Indian ocean trends is important to determining winter weather predictions, as well.
"Those are major driving factors in the wintertime, like snow fall," he said.
The summer forecast is determined differently. "It is really a combination of historical trends," Merrill said. "The oceans do not play a part."
To help smooth out his predictions, Merrill said he examines weather data from The Hub City.
"I specifically look at Hagerstown area rain fall, and temperature trends and which days of the month were warmest and coldest of the last ten years", said Merrill. "I can then hone in on certain dates, recent trends, long climate drives and moon phases."
What else is in the almanack?
The basic info you need can be found on the inside cover.
That is the first step in creating the next year's almanack, said Fisher, the fifth-great grandson of founder J. Gruber. All chronological cycles, including major religious holidays, need to be calculated to make the inside cover informative.
"That is relevant to people," Fisher said.
What significance does the moon sign play?
The almanack also contains moon fazes. A lot of farmers plant their crops based on the moon sign, Fisher said. An up-position moon in the almanack is a good time to grow top-down crops. For below-ground crops, a downward-facing moon is best.
The moon sign goes beyond the growing seasons. Many believe the best time to go fishing is when the moon is in the up facing position, and an associated fishing chart is in the book, too.
From 2020: Almanack predicts tame winter
This article originally appeared on The Herald-Mail: Hagerstown Town & Country Almanack offers predictions for holidays
