Knox County could grow in one of three specific ways, experts say, and now residents get to weigh in on the pros and cons of each vision.

Advance Knox, a process that will shape the county's growth for the next 20 years, is asking for feedback on these three growth scenarios before it proposes a new development plan for Knox County.

The chosen scenario will help guide the types of homes that are built, where your nearest grocery store will be and whether more green space is needed.

Almost 80,000 people are coming:How will Advance Knox prepare for them?

Want to keep up with Advance Knox?:Subscribe to the free, daily Knox.biz newsletter

Those three scenarios are now public, and residents can submit opinions about each to Advance Knox through Oct. 31:

• The "Status Quo" scenario

• The "Town and Country" scenario

• The "On the Road Again" scenario

You can take a survey to learn more about the scenarios or leave a comment at advanceknox.org.

You can also view the presentation given at some recent public input sessions, view the scenarios in more detail or watch a recording of a virtual public input meeting.

Once the public comment window closes, the committee behind Advance Knox will create a "preferred scenario" that will blend elements from all three presented scenarios. The public will get a chance to give input on that preferred scenario in 2023.

Evaluating the three scenarios

The Advance Knox consultant and the committee evaluated each scenario on eight criteria:

• Community character: creating and maintaining areas with distinct identities

• Conservation: preserving natural resources and areas

• Infrastructure investment: making strategic, efficient and fiscally responsible infrastructure investments

• Economic growth: creating and keeping a strong local economy

• Workforce: creating opportunities to grow county jobs

• Housing options: being able to provide enough variety of places to live

• Transportation: creating and maintaining strong public transportation

• Recreation: creating and maintaining connected greenways, sidewalks and parks

The scenarios are based off the county's projections for growth based on trends and data, so they're a best guess. Here's how the three scenarios performed based on each criteria.

Consider how each of these conceptual maps reflect the priorities that are most important to you.

Scenario 1: Outward bound

This scenario projects growth continuing as is without a new land use plan. It would prioritize an existing pattern of single-family homes in high-demand and rural areas. Employment would occur mostly in existing areas, and commercial hubs would grow along the county's major corridors.

• Community character: Would most retain existing areas

• Conservation: Would preserve the least resources

• Infrastructure investment: Would be the least efficient for future infrastructure dollars

• Economic growth: Would create the least resilient economy of the three scenarios

• Workforce: Would create the least opportunity for jobs

• Housing options: Would create the fewest varieties of housing

• Transportation: Would provide the least amount of transportation choice and connectivity

• Recreation: Would give residents the least amount of access to new green space

Scenario 2: Town and Country

This scenario focuses on growth around existing community and jobs centers. It also establishes new community hubs with a mix of retail, offices, homes, schools and public spaces.

• Community character: Would create the most new and distinct areas

• Conservation: Would preserve the most resources

• Infrastructure investment: Would be about equally as efficient as the "On the Road Again" scenario

• Economic growth: Would create the most diverse and resilient economy

• Workforce: Would create the most opportunities for jobs

• Housing options: Would provide the most variety of housing options

• Transportation: Would allow for the most connectivity and efficient transportation system

• Recreation: Would give the most access to green spaces, parks and recreation

Scenario 3: On the Road Again

This scenario balances an increase of single-family homes with an emphasis on development along commercial corridors that leads to more retail, employment and multifamily.

• Community character: Would create some new distinct areas, but not as many as the "Town and Country" scenario

• Conservation: Would fall somewhere between consumption and preservation

• Infrastructure investment: Would be about equally as efficient as the "Town and Country" scenario

• Economic growth: Would create a somewhat diverse and resilient economy

• Workforce: Would create some opportunities for jobs, but not as much as the "Town and Country" scenario

• Housing options: Would create some some variety for housing along with single-family homes

• Transportation: Would fall between the other two scenarios for providing transportation choice and connectivity

• Recreation: Would fall between the two other scenarios for providing access to green spaces

Ready to give your input?

You can find more ways to participate in Advance Knox by visiting advanceknox.org/participate.

You can also schedule an Advance Knox committee member to give a presentation to your group or business. Visit the participate page and select "request form."

What is Advance Knox?

Knox County expects a 16% increase in population by 2040. That's about 79,000 people.

Those people contribute to our regional economy as well as increased traffic, housing availability and quality of life.

The new plan, developed by Advance Knox, will guide how and where development occurs and where infrastructure investments will be made throughout the county. Land use, zoning and area plans all are up for evaluation.

The Advance Knox team includes consultants, county planning staff, committees and elected officials.

Knox County Mayor Glenn Jacobs said the current county planning guidelines are "archaic," restrict growth and make it tough to bring amenities like grocery stores and services to the heart of residential areas.

The $1.2 million initiative, which is funded in part by county taxpayers, is led by design consultant firms Kimley-Horn in North Carolina and Ohio-based Planning NEXT. About $500,000 of that total cost is funded by a Tennessee Department of Transportation grant.

After more public input opportunities early next year, the final plan will be heard by the Knoxville-Knox County Planning Commission in 2023. The plan requires two readings before the Knox County Commission votes on it.

Public input is a critical component for shaping the county's new development plan.

If the initiative fails and a plan for growth is not adopted, officials say Knox County could experience a declining economy, haphazard development, more congested roads and other challenges.

Silas Sloan: Covering growth and development in East Tennessee
Twitter: @silasloan| Email: silas.sloan@knoxnews.com
Support local journalism and enjoy subscriber perks. Visit knoxnews.com/subscribe.

This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Knoxville homes, traffic, retail depend on Knox County growth plan