How does the NBA play-in tournament work & what are the odds the OKC Thunder make the playoffs?
Note: Story updated after April 9 games
The NBA Playoffs are right around the corner, with teams set to battle for a spot through the NBA Play-In Tournament.
At the bottom of the Western Conference play-in picture are the OKC Thunder, who knocked the Jazz out of contention with a win Thursday and a Mavericks loss against the Bulls the following day.
Here's how the tournament works and which teams will likely be competing in it for a spot in the playoffs.
Guide to NBA play-in tournament rules
The NBA has used this play-in tournament since 2021. The format features the seventh- through 10th-place teams in a conference.
The seventh- and eighth-place teams play each other in one game and the ninth- and 10th-place teams do in another. The winner of the 7-vs.-8 game automatically advances to the playoffs as the No. 7 seed in their conference.
The loser of that game hosts the winner of the other game, with the winner of this final, play-in game advancing as the eighth seed in the playoffs.
More: 'He's making Hamilton his': How Thunder star Shai Gilgeous-Alexander's hometown shaped him
How seventh-, eighth-, ninth- and 10th-place teams have done in the NBA play-in tournament, playoffs
There have only been two years of tournament play, but in that limited window, the ninth-place team has won all of its games vs. the 10th-place team. So if the the Thunder win out in the play-in tournament, they'd be the first team with that placing to make the playoffs.
Historically, the ninth place have won all but one of their games in the second round of the tournament, too. In 2021, the eighth-place Wizards beat the ninth-place Pacers, being the only eighth-place team to secure the same seeding.
The seventh-place team has also won all of their opening games and therefore advanced to the NBA playoffs.
However, in the NBA Playoffs, the seventh- and and eighth-seeded teams have not advanced to the second round.
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NBA play-in schedule for Thunder vs Pelicans, playoff odds for OKC
The Thunder are now in 10th place in the West and will play the 9th place Pelicans. The game will be broadcast on ESPN on Wednesday, April 12 at 8:30 p.m. Central Time.
Current projects by PlayoffStatus.com give the Thunder a 25% chance of advancing through the play-in tournament and facing the top-seeded Nuggets in the playoffs.
FiveThirtyEight suggests the Thunder have just a 7% chance at making the playoffs, and less than a 0.1% chance at making the NBA Finals.
Two of Sports Illustrated's NBA writers say the Pelicans will end the Thunder's season, but Chris Mannix says the Thunder have the edge thanks to the scoring of Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. He doesn't note if expects them to advance to playoffs.
More: Thunder 'made it very easy' for Michael Cage to support San Diego State at Final Four
Rules for tiebreakers in the NBA standings impacting playoff seeding
Should two teams finish the season with the same record, the following tiebreakers will be weighed when considering who will finish ahead of the other in the standings:
Head-to-head record
Division leader wins a tie over a team not leading a division
Division won-lost percentage (only if teams are in same division)
Conference won-lost percentage
Better winning percentage against teams eligible for the playoffs in own conference (including teams that finished the regular season tied for a playoff position)
Better winning percentage against teams eligible for the playoffs in other conference (including teams that finished the regular season tied for a playoff position)
Point differential
If three or more teams are tied, click here to see what is weighed.
This article originally appeared on Oklahoman: OKC Thunder in 2023 NBA play-in tournament, playoffs odds
